Authored by: Umakant Sir (Founder, Mentor and Civil Servant)
Who does not like a good conspiracy?
We all have our own little conspiracy theories that we believe in contradiction to facts even. And that is understandable because that is a pure “Human Psychological Error”. Psychologists call it “cognitive dissonance” (When the facts are in contrast to the things we believe in, yet we still believe in them).
But the Bangladesh saga, seems like a plot from a movie altogether. A Prime Minister as strong as Sheikh Hasina was given only 45 mins to wind up and run?
That is enough ingredient for us to cook up a conspiracy biriyani. Nonetheless, let me feed you with some more questions that may make you smell the “conspiracy biryani”: –
Question no. 1:
If you have read history, read your history well, you know that every revolution/protest has a shelf-life. Gandhiji knew it well than others. Revolution has its fatigue.
But….
The events (Protests) in Bangladesh unfolded in the Monsoon Months. And, they say “when it rains in Bangladesh, it pours in Bangaladesh”; so how did the students manage to protest for months and mount pressure on the government in the monsoon months.
How long can a protester stand in the “Bangaladeshi rain” and shout?
Because it unfolded in the monsoon months, makes you wonder: Was there a foreign hand in all of this?
Also, because, sustaining a protest of this size requires logistics and supply chain or more bluntly it requires a “good deal of Money”. Thus, the next question…Who financed it?
Question no. 2:
Every revolution requires financing…that’s how it has always been. Take any lasting revolution from your history books and you will see a financier.
Who financed it then? Who gave the food, fodder and shelter to the protesters?
That makes one wonder of the “invisible foreign hand”.
Question no. 3:
Just before the protest, Sheikh Hasina made a trip to China, however the trip was cut-short and when she returned to Bangladesh, she gave a statement that was in favour of India.
That makes one wonder, Is there a “Chinese Hand” or “China-Pakistan Conspiracy”, given the fact that a Bangladesh under the sphere of influence of Chinese can make Indian policy makers “Paranoid” perpetually.
We have a border with Bangaladesh i.e. running upto 4096 kms and the worrisome part is: – it is a porous border. There is no natural or geographical barrier between Indo-Bangladesh border…. which makes India extremely vulnerable. Guarding a border that runs for more than 4000 km and runs through agricultural fields, river and wetlands is extremely difficult.
In that situation, China-Pakistan will be very happy, and India will be very anxious. Of Course, Chinese will prefer an anxious India rather than an assertive India.
Thus, the smell of conspiracy.
Question no. 4:
There has been reports that it might be a USA conspiracy. In this regard we can consider couple of things: –
USA through its CIA had funded revolution and toppled governments. Look at South America, Look at other parts of the world. USA had done it in the past and done it multiple times across multiple continents. So, it is hardly a surprise to anyone.
But this begs the question, why USA will topple a government in Bangladesh ? What’s the catch ? We can understand the Chinese-Pakistan angle but USA…Why?
Well, in that regard, we can consider the following: –
- USA does not see Russia as its biggest threat anymore. As long as Russia posed a threat, USA was in Afghanistan.
- The challenger to USA’s hegemony is China and to counter China, what could be a better base than Bangladesh.
- If USA had its sway over Bangladesh
- India will lose some of its “strategic autonomy” and may be pushed towards the “USA Camp”.
- China will be anxious perpetually.
In that sense, from USA’s point of view, “Bangaldesh can be the new Afghanistan“. A base to fight the Chinese threat and contain it.
All of the above, definitely makes one wonder of the “supposedly external hand” in the Bangladesh protests.
Let’s consider the counter, that it was an internal rebellion and there was no foreign hand.
Let’s go back to the Revolution of 1857 or If you give a closer look at ” Arab Spring”. What we learn from these episodes is that :-
- Every revolution has a “trigger” (In case of 1857 revolution, it was arrest of Mangal Pandey and the “cartridge issue” and in case of Arab spring it was self-immolation of a vegetable vendor”)
- Every revolution has a “deep seeded anger” against the status-quo that has been burning slowing for years, even decades.
- Every revolution has a social, political and economic cause behind it.
If people’s social mobility is curtailed, if there is widespread unemployment and if the political rights of the people are suppressed (real or perceived), it gives rise to revolution.
And in this context, if one looks at Bangladesh, it appears that the protest was natural and organic one. It started as simple protest against the reservation quota in jobs and catapulted into an anti-government protest.
Bangaladesh did well economically under Sheikh Hasina’s rule. The “Textile sector boom” created jobs for millions. However, recently the textile sector became stagnant. The Political rights of ‘people and the opposition’ perceived as to be undermined. Which seems to have created the “deep seeded anger” running over a decade. The “reservation protest” was the “trigger” and death of students at the hands of “state” catapulted it as “anti-government” protest.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, one can say that the protest in Bangladesh was organic one in the beginning, but eventually the role of “external actor” cannot be discredited as well. Afterall geopolitics is a “ruthless” game. And “some foreign actors” may have been tempted to influence and build a narrative by financing and supporting the revolution.
But as we learn from history, strong empires fall mostly because of internal weakness, external factors usually accentuate it. And seems to be the case with what happened in Bangladesh. We learn more about it as the situation unfolds.
*Disclaimer: The above writing is just an analysis, and the opinion is based on Newspaper articles and editorials etc. This must not be construed as “Fact”.
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Petrol in India is cheaper than in countries like Hong Kong, Germany and the UK but costlier than in China, Brazil, Japan, the US, Russia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report showed.
Rising fuel prices in India have led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control.
The rise in fuel prices is mainly due to the global price of crude oil (raw material for making petrol and diesel) going up. Further, a stronger dollar has added to the cost of crude oil.
Amongst comparable countries (per capita wise), prices in India are higher than those in Vietnam, Kenya, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela. Countries that are major oil producers have much lower prices.
In the report, the Philippines has a comparable petrol price but has a per capita income higher than India by over 50 per cent.
Countries which have a lower per capita income like Kenya, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Venezuela have much lower prices of petrol and hence are impacted less than India.
“Therefore there is still a strong case for the government to consider lowering the taxes on fuel to protect the interest of the people,” the report argued.
India is the world’s third-biggest oil consuming and importing nation. It imports 85 per cent of its oil needs and so prices retail fuel at import parity rates.
With the global surge in energy prices, the cost of producing petrol, diesel and other petroleum products also went up for oil companies in India.
They raised petrol and diesel prices by Rs 10 a litre in just over a fortnight beginning March 22 but hit a pause button soon after as the move faced criticism and the opposition parties asked the government to cut taxes instead.
India imports most of its oil from a group of countries called the ‘OPEC +’ (i.e, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Russia, etc), which produces 40% of the world’s crude oil.
As they have the power to dictate fuel supply and prices, their decision of limiting the global supply reduces supply in India, thus raising prices
The government charges about 167% tax (excise) on petrol and 129% on diesel as compared to US (20%), UK (62%), Italy and Germany (65%).
The abominable excise duty is 2/3rd of the cost, and the base price, dealer commission and freight form the rest.
Here is an approximate break-up (in Rs):
a)Base Price | 39 |
b)Freight | 0.34 |
c) Price Charged to Dealers = (a+b) | 39.34 |
d) Excise Duty | 40.17 |
e) Dealer Commission | 4.68 |
f) VAT | 25.35 |
g) Retail Selling Price | 109.54 |
Looked closely, much of the cost of petrol and diesel is due to higher tax rate by govt, specifically excise duty.
So the question is why government is not reducing the prices ?
India, being a developing country, it does require gigantic amount of funding for its infrastructure projects as well as welfare schemes.
However, we as a society is yet to be tax-compliant. Many people evade the direct tax and that’s the reason why govt’s hands are tied. Govt. needs the money to fund various programs and at the same time it is not generating enough revenue from direct taxes.
That’s the reason why, govt is bumping up its revenue through higher indirect taxes such as GST or excise duty as in the case of petrol and diesel.
Direct taxes are progressive as it taxes according to an individuals’ income however indirect tax such as excise duty or GST are regressive in the sense that the poorest of the poor and richest of the rich have to pay the same amount.
Does not matter, if you are an auto-driver or owner of a Mercedes, end of the day both pay the same price for petrol/diesel-that’s why it is regressive in nature.
But unlike direct tax where tax evasion is rampant, indirect tax can not be evaded due to their very nature and as long as huge no of Indians keep evading direct taxes, indirect tax such as excise duty will be difficult for the govt to reduce, because it may reduce the revenue and hamper may programs of the govt.
Globally, around 80% of wastewater flows back into the ecosystem without being treated or reused, according to the United Nations.
This can pose a significant environmental and health threat.
In the absence of cost-effective, sustainable, disruptive water management solutions, about 70% of sewage is discharged untreated into India’s water bodies.
A staggering 21% of diseases are caused by contaminated water in India, according to the World Bank, and one in five children die before their fifth birthday because of poor sanitation and hygiene conditions, according to Startup India.
As we confront these public health challenges emerging out of environmental concerns, expanding the scope of public health/environmental engineering science becomes pivotal.
For India to achieve its sustainable development goals of clean water and sanitation and to address the growing demands for water consumption and preservation of both surface water bodies and groundwater resources, it is essential to find and implement innovative ways of treating wastewater.
It is in this context why the specialised cadre of public health engineers, also known as sanitation engineers or environmental engineers, is best suited to provide the growing urban and rural water supply and to manage solid waste and wastewater.
Traditionally, engineering and public health have been understood as different fields.
Currently in India, civil engineering incorporates a course or two on environmental engineering for students to learn about wastewater management as a part of their pre-service and in-service training.
Most often, civil engineers do not have adequate skills to address public health problems. And public health professionals do not have adequate engineering skills.
India aims to supply 55 litres of water per person per day by 2024 under its Jal Jeevan Mission to install functional household tap connections.
The goal of reaching every rural household with functional tap water can be achieved in a sustainable and resilient manner only if the cadre of public health engineers is expanded and strengthened.
In India, public health engineering is executed by the Public Works Department or by health officials.
This differs from international trends. To manage a wastewater treatment plant in Europe, for example, a candidate must specialise in wastewater engineering.
Furthermore, public health engineering should be developed as an interdisciplinary field. Engineers can significantly contribute to public health in defining what is possible, identifying limitations, and shaping workable solutions with a problem-solving approach.
Similarly, public health professionals can contribute to engineering through well-researched understanding of health issues, measured risks and how course correction can be initiated.
Once both meet, a public health engineer can identify a health risk, work on developing concrete solutions such as new health and safety practices or specialised equipment, in order to correct the safety concern..
There is no doubt that the majority of diseases are water-related, transmitted through consumption of contaminated water, vectors breeding in stagnated water, or lack of adequate quantity of good quality water for proper personal hygiene.
Diseases cannot be contained unless we provide good quality and adequate quantity of water. Most of the world’s diseases can be prevented by considering this.
Training our young minds towards creating sustainable water management systems would be the first step.
Currently, institutions like the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras (IIT-M) are considering initiating public health engineering as a separate discipline.
To leverage this opportunity even further, India needs to scale up in the same direction.