Consider the year 1996. That’s twenty years ago. Multimedia was in its infancy. There was no Google, no social media. Electric vehicles were a dream. Amazon had just started. The Human Genome Project was underway.
In his book Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the 21st Century (1997), Michio Kaku, acclaimed theoretical physicist and string field theory co-founder, discussed the status of science in 1996 and made several predictions for how the world would look in 2020 and even later. As the host of a TV show, he spoke to nearly 150 scientists and technologists on what the near and distant future holds.
Reading the book now, it becomes clear that he got many things spot on. He talked about how microprocessors would become cheap, and computing pervasive. With a flourishing mobile revolution worldwide and chips in refrigerators, washing machines, playstations and so on, computing is indeed pervasive.
He was right about electric/hybrid vehicles and automated (driverless) cars. He was right about the Internet of Things. He was also right about the dominance of artificial intelligence and robotics. He also predicted the advent of internet glasses; there is now, for instance, the Google Glass.
Kaku says the twentieth century saw three scientific revolutions: the computer revolution, the quantum revolution and the biomolecular revolution. By 2020, a new era would be heralded, one of synergy between the three revolutions. This is indeed happening. Bioinformatics is an example of synergy between the biomolecular revolution and the computer revolution, resulting in automated gene-sequencing and genotype/phenotype matching. Advances in magnetic resonance imaging is a synergy between the biomolecular revolution and the quantum revolution. Visions is an engrossing read even now, twenty years later.
In 2011, Kaku again spoke to 300 scientists and technologists, and came up with another book. Physics of the Future: The Inventions That Will Transform Our Lives (2011) is a futuristic look at progress in science till the year 2100 AD. He says,
I hope this book will give an insider’s perspective on what miraculous discoveries await us and provide the most authentic, authoritative look into the world of 2100.
Kaku covers the entire gamut of science (not just physics), including information technology, artificial intelligence, medicine, nanotechnology, energy and space travel. At the end of the book, he provides a tantalising glimpse into a day in January 2100.
Some of his predictions are mind-blowing. For instance, he claims that by 2100, telepathy (mind-to-mind communication) and telekinesis (moving objects by means of the mind) will be possible. Recently scientists have been able to record dreams and even upload thoughts into a rat’s brain. And as Kaku writes, paralysed people have been hooked up to computers and are able to control cursor movements through their thoughts. So his claims may not seem far-fetched. Maybe, as he says, “By 2100, our destiny is to become like the gods we once worshipped and feared.”
Since energy is one of the specialisations of this writer, here are some points about Kaku’s predictions on energy.
Kaku believes that by 2100, we would have succeeded in harnessing fusion power, which would supply us with unlimited energy for our needs. We may be able to develop room-temperature superconductors by then, which could be used to build roads on which our (driverless) cars could float (move without friction), and at very high speeds. Since a lot of energy is expended currently in overcoming the friction on roads, high-temperature superconductors can drastically reduce energy consumption.
By then, we would also be capable of “sending hundreds of space satellites into orbit around the earth, absorbing radiation from the sun, and then beaming this energy down to earth in the form of microwave radiation.”
Kaku’s book, like his predictions, is miraculous. This writer has a twinge of regret that he would not live to see these changes occur by 2100.
We live in an inflection point in history, and, if futurist Ray Kurzweil is right, in the proximity of a singularity. It is quite probable that we will witness some enormous upheavals in our way of life.
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Petrol in India is cheaper than in countries like Hong Kong, Germany and the UK but costlier than in China, Brazil, Japan, the US, Russia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report showed.
Rising fuel prices in India have led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control.
The rise in fuel prices is mainly due to the global price of crude oil (raw material for making petrol and diesel) going up. Further, a stronger dollar has added to the cost of crude oil.
Amongst comparable countries (per capita wise), prices in India are higher than those in Vietnam, Kenya, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela. Countries that are major oil producers have much lower prices.
In the report, the Philippines has a comparable petrol price but has a per capita income higher than India by over 50 per cent.
Countries which have a lower per capita income like Kenya, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Venezuela have much lower prices of petrol and hence are impacted less than India.
“Therefore there is still a strong case for the government to consider lowering the taxes on fuel to protect the interest of the people,” the report argued.
India is the world’s third-biggest oil consuming and importing nation. It imports 85 per cent of its oil needs and so prices retail fuel at import parity rates.
With the global surge in energy prices, the cost of producing petrol, diesel and other petroleum products also went up for oil companies in India.
They raised petrol and diesel prices by Rs 10 a litre in just over a fortnight beginning March 22 but hit a pause button soon after as the move faced criticism and the opposition parties asked the government to cut taxes instead.
India imports most of its oil from a group of countries called the ‘OPEC +’ (i.e, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Russia, etc), which produces 40% of the world’s crude oil.
As they have the power to dictate fuel supply and prices, their decision of limiting the global supply reduces supply in India, thus raising prices
The government charges about 167% tax (excise) on petrol and 129% on diesel as compared to US (20%), UK (62%), Italy and Germany (65%).
The abominable excise duty is 2/3rd of the cost, and the base price, dealer commission and freight form the rest.
Here is an approximate break-up (in Rs):
a)Base Price | 39 |
b)Freight | 0.34 |
c) Price Charged to Dealers = (a+b) | 39.34 |
d) Excise Duty | 40.17 |
e) Dealer Commission | 4.68 |
f) VAT | 25.35 |
g) Retail Selling Price | 109.54 |
Looked closely, much of the cost of petrol and diesel is due to higher tax rate by govt, specifically excise duty.
So the question is why government is not reducing the prices ?
India, being a developing country, it does require gigantic amount of funding for its infrastructure projects as well as welfare schemes.
However, we as a society is yet to be tax-compliant. Many people evade the direct tax and that’s the reason why govt’s hands are tied. Govt. needs the money to fund various programs and at the same time it is not generating enough revenue from direct taxes.
That’s the reason why, govt is bumping up its revenue through higher indirect taxes such as GST or excise duty as in the case of petrol and diesel.
Direct taxes are progressive as it taxes according to an individuals’ income however indirect tax such as excise duty or GST are regressive in the sense that the poorest of the poor and richest of the rich have to pay the same amount.
Does not matter, if you are an auto-driver or owner of a Mercedes, end of the day both pay the same price for petrol/diesel-that’s why it is regressive in nature.
But unlike direct tax where tax evasion is rampant, indirect tax can not be evaded due to their very nature and as long as huge no of Indians keep evading direct taxes, indirect tax such as excise duty will be difficult for the govt to reduce, because it may reduce the revenue and hamper may programs of the govt.