Background
- A heatwave is a period of unusually hot weather with above normal temperatures that typically last three or more days. In India, heatwaves are generally experienced during March-June.
- On an average, two-three heatwave events are expected every season. Heatwaves are predominantly observed over two areas, central and northwest India and another over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, supported by favourable atmospheric conditions.
- Total duration of heatwaves has increased by about three days during the last 30 years and a further increase of 12-18 days is expected by 2060. In future climate, heatwaves will be spread to new areas including southern parts of India. Climate change is causing heatwaves more frequently, and they are much stronger and can last for more days.
Caused fatalities
- Heatwaves have multiple and cascading impact on human health, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, water and economy.
- The recent 2022 heatwave in India and Pakistan in March-April made devastating impacts.
- It is estimated to have led at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan. It also triggered an extreme Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in northern Pakistan.
How are heatwaves caused?
- Heatwaves are caused by large scale atmospheric circulation anomalies like high pressure areas, upper-tropospheric, jet streams, etc.
- The global forcing like the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean modulate the frequency and duration of Indian
- heatwaves. Heatwave can be further accentuated by local effects like depleted soil moisture and enhanced sensible heat flux.
Major regions affected by Heatwave in India
How good is our early warning system for heatwaves?
- Research helped us to improve our understanding on the underlying mechanism of its genesis and intensity
- Under the National Monsoon Mission, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) had established an advanced prediction system for early warnings of heatwaves.
- IMD has the capability to predict the genesis, duration and intensity of heatwave events with reasonable accuracy up to four-five days in advance.
- Adaptation to heatwaves can be effective to minimize the negative impacts, by developing a comprehensive heat response plan that includes early warnings, awareness rising and technology intervention.
- India has now a strong national framework for heat action plans involving the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the National and State disaster management authorities, and local bodies.
- Early warning systems are an integral part of this heat action plan.
Can we then predict heatwaves two weeks in advance and what about a season in advance?
- A recent study published in the Scientific Reports by the scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has shown that heatwave genesis and duration in India can be predicted with good skill up to two weeks in advance.
- They have used the hindcasts from the MoES Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) that uses ensemble method combining four atmospheric general circulation models.
Improved prediction
- The model could reproduce the spatial distribution of heatwave frequency and duration very well. The model also showed useful skill in predicting the characteristics of heatwaves for different months (April to June) separately.
- The model skill in predicting heatwaves arises due to its fidelity in reproducing the impacts of ENSO and the Indian Ocean on atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Indian region.
- Thus, we have an end-to-end seamless prediction system to predict heatwaves in all time scales, from short-range to seasonal. The seasonal forecast will provide an outlook or probability of frequency and duration of heatwaves, one season in advance.
- This early outlook can be further strengthened using the extended range (two weeks) and short range (four-five days) forecasts for more focused region-wise response strategies.
- Seasonal forecasts should use a multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasting strategy. Short- range ensemble forecasts should use higher resolution global models, initialized with observed soil moisture data, which are available from microwave satellites and IMD’s soil moisture network. We should then expect more advanced forecasting system for heatwaves in the near future.
Receive Daily Updates
Recent Posts
- In the Large States category (overall), Chhattisgarh ranks 1st, followed by Odisha and Telangana, whereas, towards the bottom are Maharashtra at 16th, Assam at 17th and Gujarat at 18th. Gujarat is one State that has seen startling performance ranking 5th in the PAI 2021 Index outperforming traditionally good performing States like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, but ranks last in terms of Delta
- In the Small States category (overall), Nagaland tops, followed by Mizoram and Tripura. Towards the tail end of the overall Delta ranking is Uttarakhand (9th), Arunachal Pradesh (10th) and Meghalaya (11th). Nagaland despite being a poor performer in the PAI 2021 Index has come out to be the top performer in Delta, similarly, Mizoram’s performance in Delta is also reflected in it’s ranking in the PAI 2021 Index
- In terms of Equity, in the Large States category, Chhattisgarh has the best Delta rate on Equity indicators, this is also reflected in the performance of Chhattisgarh in the Equity Pillar where it ranks 4th. Following Chhattisgarh is Odisha ranking 2nd in Delta-Equity ranking, but ranks 17th in the Equity Pillar of PAI 2021. Telangana ranks 3rd in Delta-Equity ranking even though it is not a top performer in this Pillar in the overall PAI 2021 Index. Jharkhand (16th), Uttar Pradesh (17th) and Assam (18th) rank at the bottom with Uttar Pradesh’s performance in line with the PAI 2021 Index
- Odisha and Nagaland have shown the best year-on-year improvement under 12 Key Development indicators.
- In the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Goa and Tamil Nadu and, the bottom three performers are Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar.
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers were Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Mizoram; and, the bottom three performers are Manipur, Assam and Meghalaya.
- Among the 60:40 division States, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are the top three performers and Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Delhi appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland; and, the bottom three performers are Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh
- Among the 60:40 division States, Goa, West Bengal and Delhi appear as the top three performers and Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh and Tripura were the top three performers and Jammu & Kashmir, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh were the bottom three performers
- West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu were the top three States amongst the 60:40 division States; while Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan appeared as the bottom three performers
- In the case of 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Assam and Tripura were the top three performers and Nagaland, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand featured as the bottom three
- Among the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and the bottom three performers are Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Goa
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Mizoram, Sikkim and Nagaland and the bottom three performers are Manipur and Assam
In a diverse country like India, where each State is socially, culturally, economically, and politically distinct, measuring Governance becomes increasingly tricky. The Public Affairs Index (PAI 2021) is a scientifically rigorous, data-based framework that measures the quality of governance at the Sub-national level and ranks the States and Union Territories (UTs) of India on a Composite Index (CI).
States are classified into two categories – Large and Small – using population as the criteria.
In PAI 2021, PAC defined three significant pillars that embody Governance – Growth, Equity, and Sustainability. Each of the three Pillars is circumscribed by five governance praxis Themes.
The themes include – Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
At the bottom of the pyramid, 43 component indicators are mapped to 14 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are relevant to the States and UTs.
This forms the foundation of the conceptual framework of PAI 2021. The choice of the 43 indicators that go into the calculation of the CI were dictated by the objective of uncovering the complexity and multidimensional character of development governance
The Equity Principle
The Equity Pillar of the PAI 2021 Index analyses the inclusiveness impact at the Sub-national level in the country; inclusiveness in terms of the welfare of a society that depends primarily on establishing that all people feel that they have a say in the governance and are not excluded from the mainstream policy framework.
This requires all individuals and communities, but particularly the most vulnerable, to have an opportunity to improve or maintain their wellbeing. This chapter of PAI 2021 reflects the performance of States and UTs during the pandemic and questions the governance infrastructure in the country, analysing the effectiveness of schemes and the general livelihood of the people in terms of Equity.
Growth and its Discontents
Growth in its multidimensional form encompasses the essence of access to and the availability and optimal utilisation of resources. By resources, PAI 2021 refer to human resources, infrastructure and the budgetary allocations. Capacity building of an economy cannot take place if all the key players of growth do not drive development. The multiplier effects of better health care, improved educational outcomes, increased capital accumulation and lower unemployment levels contribute magnificently in the growth and development of the States.
The Pursuit Of Sustainability
The Sustainability Pillar analyses the access to and usage of resources that has an impact on environment, economy and humankind. The Pillar subsumes two themes and uses seven indicators to measure the effectiveness of government efforts with regards to Sustainability.
The Curious Case Of The Delta
The Delta Analysis presents the results on the State performance on year-on-year improvement. The rankings are measured as the Delta value over the last five to 10 years of data available for 12 Key Development Indicators (KDI). In PAI 2021, 12 indicators across the three Pillars of Equity (five indicators), Growth (five indicators) and Sustainability (two indicators). These KDIs are the outcome indicators crucial to assess Human Development. The Performance in the Delta Analysis is then compared to the Overall PAI 2021 Index.
Key Findings:-
In the Scheme of Things
The Scheme Analysis adds an additional dimension to ranking of the States on their governance. It attempts to complement the Governance Model by trying to understand the developmental activities undertaken by State Governments in the form of schemes. It also tries to understand whether better performance of States in schemes reflect in better governance.
The Centrally Sponsored schemes that were analysed are National Health Mission (NHM), Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services scheme (ICDS), Mahatma Gandh National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan (SmSA) and MidDay Meal Scheme (MDMS).
National Health Mission (NHM)
INTEGRATED CHILD DEVELOPMENT SERVICES (ICDS)
MID- DAY MEAL SCHEME (MDMS)
SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN (SMSA)
MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEME (MGNREGS)