Other than the polar regions, the Himalayas follow as the largest deposit of frozen water in the world, especially in the case of Himalayan glaciers. Himalayan glaciers make up about 17 per cent of the Himalayas and about 37 per cent of the Karakoram Range.
The water melted from Himalayan glaciers form the headwaters for many major river catchments in the Indian subcontinent. This discharge of headwater makes up for about 70 to 80 per cent of the melting of snow and ice from the highlands. In such a scenario, global warming and climate change can have significant impacts on the flow of water into river catchments.
Climate Change Impacts in the Tibetan Plateau
Consisting of enormous amounts of snow and ice, the Tibetan Plateau is sometimes referred to as The Third Pole and also The Water Tower of Asia and holds the Hindu Kush Himalayan Ice Sheet – the world’s largest ice mass outside the two poles. The Tibetan Plateau has more than 45,000 Himalayan glaciers that cover a total area of more than 105,000 sq km. The Tibetan Plateau is the highest region on Earth with an average elevation of about 4,500 m above sea level and covers an area of about 2.5 million sq km (Norbu, 2011). The Tibetan Plateau has the Himalayas in the south, the Kunlun Range across the north and the Karakorum Range towards the west.
The largest river run-off out of any location in the world occurs from the rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau that are fed by melting glaciers. In the summer months about 70 per cent of the headwater in the Ganges for example is fed by glaciers from the Tibetan Plateau. As such, with climate change water supply and drainage is expected to be severely affected due to its effects on melting glaciers, with India particularly affected by headwater discharge from the Himalayas.
Unlike Arctic and Antarctic permafrost, the permafrost prevailing in the Tibetan Plateau is alpine permafrost. This sort of permafrost tends to be warm permafrost combined with rich ground ice and this makes areas covered by this form of permafrost very vulnerable to global warming and climate change.
It is estimated that about 12,300 million tonnes of carbon are stored in the alpine permafrost of the Tibetan Plateau (Norbu, 2011). This can potentially become a major source of methane emissions – a greenhouse gas. The melting of permafrost in the Tibetan Plateau can occur in a vicious cycle whereby warming might induce more melting and the corresponding release of greenhouse gases.
Although the vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau can act as major carbon sinks in the region, the ecosystem in the Tibetan Plateau is undergoing major changes due to global warming. The glaciers here are receding, numerous lakes are shrinking or disappearing, wetlands are drying up, permafrost is thawing, and the headwater discharge in many rivers is becoming lesser. Also abnormal phenomena are being observed, such as non-sequential rainfall, reduced growth of young livestock, delays in the milking season for cattle, etc.
It is also observed that the thaw in the spring season is occurring earlier, which is causing the permafrost to melt faster than the plants can access the water – leading to a loss of wetlands. It is expected that an increased rate of evapo-transpiration due to global warming can also intensify the desertification process in the Tibetan Plateau and adjoining regions (Klein, 2005). Desertification can adversely affect vegetation as carbon sinks and also the carbon sequestration properties of moisture and permafrost. The prospects for environmental degradation however, can be multi-faceted, with the principal threats being glacial retreat, desertification and the melting of permafrost.
The Impacts of Himalayan Glaciers on River Catchments
Contradicting reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Thayyen and Gergan (2009) argue that glacial retreat in the Himalayas will not necessarily result in greater headwater flow into Himalayan river catchments. Arguing that the previous view focuses only on glacial outlets, they cite Hasnain’s (2008) paper who observed that the adverse effect was in fact glacial shrinkage due to global warming that can in turn cause a high run-off. This however also could reduce the overall capacities of Himalayan glaciers to provide headwater.
Hasnain comments on the reduction in glacial dimensions with climate change and states that Himalayan glaciers as a water source cannot be assumed as permanent. He observes that Himalayan glaciers would need to maintain a specific mass balance of between 90 and 78 cm to prevent large scale loss of glacial ice. However, Himalayan glaciers are losing ice, and this could pose a serious threat to the availability of water in India and in adjoining regions linked to Himalayan river catchments.
Hasnain’s studies point towards that fact that Himalayan glacial run-off has increased in the recent past and shall continue to advance with the increase in glacial shrinkage. With enough glacial shrinkage, Hasnain expects significant decreases in the headwater discharged to river catchments. River catchments affected by headwater discharges from Himalayan glaciers such as the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Indus catchments are expected to greatly affected by glacial shrinkage, along with a host of other river systems drawing water from Himalayan glaciers. This could have severe implications for the discharge and availability of fresh water in areas fed by these river catchments.
Case Study: Hydrology of the Bhagirathi-Ganga Basin
The Bhagirathi river is one of the principal tributaries of the river Ganges and arises in the Gangotri glacier Goumukh. It forms a moauntainous catchment with the Ganges until it joins the Alaknanda, another tributary, at Devprayag to join with the river Ganges. The basin comprises water from 238 glaciers with a total ice volume of about 67.02 cu km. The average Monsoon precipitation in the headwaters for this basin is between 1,000 and 2,500 mm (Hasnain, 2008).
Investigations into the Dokriani Glacier were carried out by the Department of Science and Technology, GoI since the 1990s till the early 21st Century on discharge, precipitation and temperature measurements around the basin. The studies found that an increase in air temperature by 0.5oC since 1998 in the Dokriani Glacier valley had led to significant melting of glacier ice. Anomalouly high melting of the glacier has occurred due to excessive warming which has led to high run-off of glacial headwater, with an increasing rate of discharge.
The mass balance of the glacier was negative, with 80 per cent melting for the period. It is expected that with an increase in temperature by 1.5oC and an increase in Monsoon precipitation by 60 per cent, the seasonal run-off during the Monsoon season will increase to 100 per cent, which can severely deplete the glacier. The possible effects according to the research point towards reduced accumulation of snowfall, an increase in ablation due to heat, and reduced albedo due to the decrease in snowfall. If the run-off increases to 100 per cent, this can also lead to a decrease in the supply of fresh water in the basin due to inadequate replenishment of glacial ice, which can have significant implications for ecologies and lives downstream.
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- In the Large States category (overall), Chhattisgarh ranks 1st, followed by Odisha and Telangana, whereas, towards the bottom are Maharashtra at 16th, Assam at 17th and Gujarat at 18th. Gujarat is one State that has seen startling performance ranking 5th in the PAI 2021 Index outperforming traditionally good performing States like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, but ranks last in terms of Delta
- In the Small States category (overall), Nagaland tops, followed by Mizoram and Tripura. Towards the tail end of the overall Delta ranking is Uttarakhand (9th), Arunachal Pradesh (10th) and Meghalaya (11th). Nagaland despite being a poor performer in the PAI 2021 Index has come out to be the top performer in Delta, similarly, Mizoram’s performance in Delta is also reflected in it’s ranking in the PAI 2021 Index
- In terms of Equity, in the Large States category, Chhattisgarh has the best Delta rate on Equity indicators, this is also reflected in the performance of Chhattisgarh in the Equity Pillar where it ranks 4th. Following Chhattisgarh is Odisha ranking 2nd in Delta-Equity ranking, but ranks 17th in the Equity Pillar of PAI 2021. Telangana ranks 3rd in Delta-Equity ranking even though it is not a top performer in this Pillar in the overall PAI 2021 Index. Jharkhand (16th), Uttar Pradesh (17th) and Assam (18th) rank at the bottom with Uttar Pradesh’s performance in line with the PAI 2021 Index
- Odisha and Nagaland have shown the best year-on-year improvement under 12 Key Development indicators.
- In the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Goa and Tamil Nadu and, the bottom three performers are Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar.
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers were Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Mizoram; and, the bottom three performers are Manipur, Assam and Meghalaya.
- Among the 60:40 division States, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are the top three performers and Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Delhi appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland; and, the bottom three performers are Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh
- Among the 60:40 division States, Goa, West Bengal and Delhi appear as the top three performers and Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh and Tripura were the top three performers and Jammu & Kashmir, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh were the bottom three performers
- West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu were the top three States amongst the 60:40 division States; while Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan appeared as the bottom three performers
- In the case of 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Assam and Tripura were the top three performers and Nagaland, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand featured as the bottom three
- Among the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and the bottom three performers are Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Goa
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Mizoram, Sikkim and Nagaland and the bottom three performers are Manipur and Assam
In a diverse country like India, where each State is socially, culturally, economically, and politically distinct, measuring Governance becomes increasingly tricky. The Public Affairs Index (PAI 2021) is a scientifically rigorous, data-based framework that measures the quality of governance at the Sub-national level and ranks the States and Union Territories (UTs) of India on a Composite Index (CI).
States are classified into two categories – Large and Small – using population as the criteria.
In PAI 2021, PAC defined three significant pillars that embody Governance – Growth, Equity, and Sustainability. Each of the three Pillars is circumscribed by five governance praxis Themes.
The themes include – Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
At the bottom of the pyramid, 43 component indicators are mapped to 14 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are relevant to the States and UTs.
This forms the foundation of the conceptual framework of PAI 2021. The choice of the 43 indicators that go into the calculation of the CI were dictated by the objective of uncovering the complexity and multidimensional character of development governance
The Equity Principle
The Equity Pillar of the PAI 2021 Index analyses the inclusiveness impact at the Sub-national level in the country; inclusiveness in terms of the welfare of a society that depends primarily on establishing that all people feel that they have a say in the governance and are not excluded from the mainstream policy framework.
This requires all individuals and communities, but particularly the most vulnerable, to have an opportunity to improve or maintain their wellbeing. This chapter of PAI 2021 reflects the performance of States and UTs during the pandemic and questions the governance infrastructure in the country, analysing the effectiveness of schemes and the general livelihood of the people in terms of Equity.
Growth and its Discontents
Growth in its multidimensional form encompasses the essence of access to and the availability and optimal utilisation of resources. By resources, PAI 2021 refer to human resources, infrastructure and the budgetary allocations. Capacity building of an economy cannot take place if all the key players of growth do not drive development. The multiplier effects of better health care, improved educational outcomes, increased capital accumulation and lower unemployment levels contribute magnificently in the growth and development of the States.
The Pursuit Of Sustainability
The Sustainability Pillar analyses the access to and usage of resources that has an impact on environment, economy and humankind. The Pillar subsumes two themes and uses seven indicators to measure the effectiveness of government efforts with regards to Sustainability.
The Curious Case Of The Delta
The Delta Analysis presents the results on the State performance on year-on-year improvement. The rankings are measured as the Delta value over the last five to 10 years of data available for 12 Key Development Indicators (KDI). In PAI 2021, 12 indicators across the three Pillars of Equity (five indicators), Growth (five indicators) and Sustainability (two indicators). These KDIs are the outcome indicators crucial to assess Human Development. The Performance in the Delta Analysis is then compared to the Overall PAI 2021 Index.
Key Findings:-
In the Scheme of Things
The Scheme Analysis adds an additional dimension to ranking of the States on their governance. It attempts to complement the Governance Model by trying to understand the developmental activities undertaken by State Governments in the form of schemes. It also tries to understand whether better performance of States in schemes reflect in better governance.
The Centrally Sponsored schemes that were analysed are National Health Mission (NHM), Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services scheme (ICDS), Mahatma Gandh National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan (SmSA) and MidDay Meal Scheme (MDMS).
National Health Mission (NHM)
INTEGRATED CHILD DEVELOPMENT SERVICES (ICDS)
MID- DAY MEAL SCHEME (MDMS)
SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN (SMSA)
MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEME (MGNREGS)