Consider the year 1996. That’s twenty years ago. Multimedia was in its infancy. There was no Google, no social media. Electric vehicles were a dream. Amazon had just started. The Human Genome Project was underway.
In his book Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the 21st Century (1997), Michio Kaku, acclaimed theoretical physicist and string field theory co-founder, discussed the status of science in 1996 and made several predictions for how the world would look in 2020 and even later. As the host of a TV show, he spoke to nearly 150 scientists and technologists on what the near and distant future holds.
Reading the book now, it becomes clear that he got many things spot on. He talked about how microprocessors would become cheap, and computing pervasive. With a flourishing mobile revolution worldwide and chips in refrigerators, washing machines, playstations and so on, computing is indeed pervasive.
He was right about electric/hybrid vehicles and automated (driverless) cars. He was right about the Internet of Things. He was also right about the dominance of artificial intelligence and robotics. He also predicted the advent of internet glasses; there is now, for instance, the Google Glass.
Kaku says the twentieth century saw three scientific revolutions: the computer revolution, the quantum revolution and the biomolecular revolution. By 2020, a new era would be heralded, one of synergy between the three revolutions. This is indeed happening. Bioinformatics is an example of synergy between the biomolecular revolution and the computer revolution, resulting in automated gene-sequencing and genotype/phenotype matching. Advances in magnetic resonance imaging is a synergy between the biomolecular revolution and the quantum revolution. Visions is an engrossing read even now, twenty years later.
In 2011, Kaku again spoke to 300 scientists and technologists, and came up with another book. Physics of the Future: The Inventions That Will Transform Our Lives (2011) is a futuristic look at progress in science till the year 2100 AD. He says,
I hope this book will give an insider’s perspective on what miraculous discoveries await us and provide the most authentic, authoritative look into the world of 2100.
Kaku covers the entire gamut of science (not just physics), including information technology, artificial intelligence, medicine, nanotechnology, energy and space travel. At the end of the book, he provides a tantalising glimpse into a day in January 2100.
Some of his predictions are mind-blowing. For instance, he claims that by 2100, telepathy (mind-to-mind communication) and telekinesis (moving objects by means of the mind) will be possible. Recently scientists have been able to record dreams and even upload thoughts into a rat’s brain. And as Kaku writes, paralysed people have been hooked up to computers and are able to control cursor movements through their thoughts. So his claims may not seem far-fetched. Maybe, as he says, “By 2100, our destiny is to become like the gods we once worshipped and feared.”
Since energy is one of the specialisations of this writer, here are some points about Kaku’s predictions on energy.
Kaku believes that by 2100, we would have succeeded in harnessing fusion power, which would supply us with unlimited energy for our needs. We may be able to develop room-temperature superconductors by then, which could be used to build roads on which our (driverless) cars could float (move without friction), and at very high speeds. Since a lot of energy is expended currently in overcoming the friction on roads, high-temperature superconductors can drastically reduce energy consumption.
By then, we would also be capable of “sending hundreds of space satellites into orbit around the earth, absorbing radiation from the sun, and then beaming this energy down to earth in the form of microwave radiation.”
Kaku’s book, like his predictions, is miraculous. This writer has a twinge of regret that he would not live to see these changes occur by 2100.
We live in an inflection point in history, and, if futurist Ray Kurzweil is right, in the proximity of a singularity. It is quite probable that we will witness some enormous upheavals in our way of life.
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- In the Large States category (overall), Chhattisgarh ranks 1st, followed by Odisha and Telangana, whereas, towards the bottom are Maharashtra at 16th, Assam at 17th and Gujarat at 18th. Gujarat is one State that has seen startling performance ranking 5th in the PAI 2021 Index outperforming traditionally good performing States like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, but ranks last in terms of Delta
- In the Small States category (overall), Nagaland tops, followed by Mizoram and Tripura. Towards the tail end of the overall Delta ranking is Uttarakhand (9th), Arunachal Pradesh (10th) and Meghalaya (11th). Nagaland despite being a poor performer in the PAI 2021 Index has come out to be the top performer in Delta, similarly, Mizoram’s performance in Delta is also reflected in it’s ranking in the PAI 2021 Index
- In terms of Equity, in the Large States category, Chhattisgarh has the best Delta rate on Equity indicators, this is also reflected in the performance of Chhattisgarh in the Equity Pillar where it ranks 4th. Following Chhattisgarh is Odisha ranking 2nd in Delta-Equity ranking, but ranks 17th in the Equity Pillar of PAI 2021. Telangana ranks 3rd in Delta-Equity ranking even though it is not a top performer in this Pillar in the overall PAI 2021 Index. Jharkhand (16th), Uttar Pradesh (17th) and Assam (18th) rank at the bottom with Uttar Pradesh’s performance in line with the PAI 2021 Index
- Odisha and Nagaland have shown the best year-on-year improvement under 12 Key Development indicators.
- In the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Goa and Tamil Nadu and, the bottom three performers are Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar.
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers were Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Mizoram; and, the bottom three performers are Manipur, Assam and Meghalaya.
- Among the 60:40 division States, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are the top three performers and Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Delhi appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland; and, the bottom three performers are Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh
- Among the 60:40 division States, Goa, West Bengal and Delhi appear as the top three performers and Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh and Tripura were the top three performers and Jammu & Kashmir, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh were the bottom three performers
- West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu were the top three States amongst the 60:40 division States; while Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan appeared as the bottom three performers
- In the case of 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Assam and Tripura were the top three performers and Nagaland, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand featured as the bottom three
- Among the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and the bottom three performers are Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Goa
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Mizoram, Sikkim and Nagaland and the bottom three performers are Manipur and Assam
In a diverse country like India, where each State is socially, culturally, economically, and politically distinct, measuring Governance becomes increasingly tricky. The Public Affairs Index (PAI 2021) is a scientifically rigorous, data-based framework that measures the quality of governance at the Sub-national level and ranks the States and Union Territories (UTs) of India on a Composite Index (CI).
States are classified into two categories – Large and Small – using population as the criteria.
In PAI 2021, PAC defined three significant pillars that embody Governance – Growth, Equity, and Sustainability. Each of the three Pillars is circumscribed by five governance praxis Themes.
The themes include – Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
At the bottom of the pyramid, 43 component indicators are mapped to 14 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are relevant to the States and UTs.
This forms the foundation of the conceptual framework of PAI 2021. The choice of the 43 indicators that go into the calculation of the CI were dictated by the objective of uncovering the complexity and multidimensional character of development governance
The Equity Principle
The Equity Pillar of the PAI 2021 Index analyses the inclusiveness impact at the Sub-national level in the country; inclusiveness in terms of the welfare of a society that depends primarily on establishing that all people feel that they have a say in the governance and are not excluded from the mainstream policy framework.
This requires all individuals and communities, but particularly the most vulnerable, to have an opportunity to improve or maintain their wellbeing. This chapter of PAI 2021 reflects the performance of States and UTs during the pandemic and questions the governance infrastructure in the country, analysing the effectiveness of schemes and the general livelihood of the people in terms of Equity.
Growth and its Discontents
Growth in its multidimensional form encompasses the essence of access to and the availability and optimal utilisation of resources. By resources, PAI 2021 refer to human resources, infrastructure and the budgetary allocations. Capacity building of an economy cannot take place if all the key players of growth do not drive development. The multiplier effects of better health care, improved educational outcomes, increased capital accumulation and lower unemployment levels contribute magnificently in the growth and development of the States.
The Pursuit Of Sustainability
The Sustainability Pillar analyses the access to and usage of resources that has an impact on environment, economy and humankind. The Pillar subsumes two themes and uses seven indicators to measure the effectiveness of government efforts with regards to Sustainability.
The Curious Case Of The Delta
The Delta Analysis presents the results on the State performance on year-on-year improvement. The rankings are measured as the Delta value over the last five to 10 years of data available for 12 Key Development Indicators (KDI). In PAI 2021, 12 indicators across the three Pillars of Equity (five indicators), Growth (five indicators) and Sustainability (two indicators). These KDIs are the outcome indicators crucial to assess Human Development. The Performance in the Delta Analysis is then compared to the Overall PAI 2021 Index.
Key Findings:-
In the Scheme of Things
The Scheme Analysis adds an additional dimension to ranking of the States on their governance. It attempts to complement the Governance Model by trying to understand the developmental activities undertaken by State Governments in the form of schemes. It also tries to understand whether better performance of States in schemes reflect in better governance.
The Centrally Sponsored schemes that were analysed are National Health Mission (NHM), Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services scheme (ICDS), Mahatma Gandh National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan (SmSA) and MidDay Meal Scheme (MDMS).
National Health Mission (NHM)
INTEGRATED CHILD DEVELOPMENT SERVICES (ICDS)
MID- DAY MEAL SCHEME (MDMS)
SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN (SMSA)
MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEME (MGNREGS)