Discovery of the phenomena of monsoon
A Greek text, Periplus of the Erythreaeansea, which describes navigation and trading opportunities, talks about seasonal winds bringing navigators to safety. The writer of this text credits Hippalus with the discovery of these winds and its route across the Arabian Sea to India, around 1 Century BCE.
Who coined the word Monsoon?
The word ‘Monsoon’ is derived from Arabic word ‘Mausim’, meaning seasonal winds. The famous Arab scholar, a world-traveller and a prolific writer, Al- Masudi coined the term Monsoon and gave a good account of these periodic winds of the Herkend (Bay of Bengal). Interestingly Al-Masudi also remarks about using these winds as a source of energy.
Photo Courtesy : Indian Metrological Department
Indian Monsoon mechanisms
Monsoon winds are in reality southeast trade winds, which dramatically shifts in summer due to apparent movement of sun towards the northern hemisphere. The dramatic large-scale direction change results in southwest winds and the monsoon. Some of the salient factors that propel the Indian monsoon are listed below.
- Differential heating and cooling of land and water: This creates low pressure on the Indian landmass while seas around experience comparatively high pressure. As we know, winds move from high-pressure areas to low-pressure areas. This initiates the whole process of Indian monsoon
- Shift in position of Inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ): In summer due to apparent movement of sun, ITCZ which is a equatorial trough, normally positioned about 5 degrees N&S of the equator, shifts towards the north, over the Ganga Plain. This puts in place the monsoon trough that initiates the monsoonal circulation.
- Presence of high pressure region in the east of Madagascar: The intensity and position of this high pressure area plays crucial role in initiating the monsoonal circulation.
- Intense heating of Tibetan plateau during summer: Tibetan plateau gets intensely heated during summer, which results in vertical air currents and formation of a high-pressure region over the plateau at about 9 km above the sea level.
- Movement of Westerly Jet Stream to the north of Himalaya: The sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream, the high-level intense winds, moves to the north of the Himalaya in the summer, leaves a vacuum for southwesterly winds on the surface to complete the wind circulation.
- Southern Oscillation: Changes in pressure conditions over the Southern Ocean also affect the Indian monsoon. Normally, when the tropical western South Pacific Ocean experiences high-pressure, the Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean experiences low pressure. However, in certain years, there is reversal in pressure conditions and the Eastern Pacific region has lower pressure in comparison to East Indian Ocean. This periodic change in pressure condition is known as Southern Oscillation.
- El-Nino: This is a warm current that flows past Peruvian coast in place of the usual cold Peruvian current. The phenomenon occurs every 2 to 5 years. Hence change in pressure conditions is connected to El-Nino and whole phenomenon of El Niño–Southern Oscillation is referred as ENSO.
Timing of Indian Monsoon – how much punctual is it?
An important feature of Indian monsoon is its timing. It comes without a fail every year and strikes the country on nearly same time i.e. June 1.
The first beneficiaries of Indian Monsoon
Kerala is the privileged state, and it experiences the first showers of the monsoon. Monsoon then divides into two branches namely Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and approaches the main land mass of India.
Indian Monsoon is not an Indian phenomenon only
Monsoon is not restricted to India only. It affects the weather of the entire Indian sub-continent, and Oceana, which comprise Australia and New Zealand. There is also the North American monsoon, which happens once a year, usually in the middle of summer.
Endnote:
India’s monsoon saga plays out every year. This year, intense summer has been predicted by the India Meteorological Department, and India hopes for a bountiful monsoon.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.