Background
- A heatwave is a period of unusually hot weather with above normal temperatures that typically last three or more days. In India, heatwaves are generally experienced during March-June.
- On an average, two-three heatwave events are expected every season. Heatwaves are predominantly observed over two areas, central and northwest India and another over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, supported by favourable atmospheric conditions.
- Total duration of heatwaves has increased by about three days during the last 30 years and a further increase of 12-18 days is expected by 2060. In future climate, heatwaves will be spread to new areas including southern parts of India. Climate change is causing heatwaves more frequently, and they are much stronger and can last for more days.
Caused fatalities
- Heatwaves have multiple and cascading impact on human health, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, water and economy.
- The recent 2022 heatwave in India and Pakistan in March-April made devastating impacts.
- It is estimated to have led at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan. It also triggered an extreme Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in northern Pakistan.
How are heatwaves caused?
- Heatwaves are caused by large scale atmospheric circulation anomalies like high pressure areas, upper-tropospheric, jet streams, etc.
- The global forcing like the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean modulate the frequency and duration of Indian
- heatwaves. Heatwave can be further accentuated by local effects like depleted soil moisture and enhanced sensible heat flux.
Major regions affected by Heatwave in India
How good is our early warning system for heatwaves?
- Research helped us to improve our understanding on the underlying mechanism of its genesis and intensity
- Under the National Monsoon Mission, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) had established an advanced prediction system for early warnings of heatwaves.
- IMD has the capability to predict the genesis, duration and intensity of heatwave events with reasonable accuracy up to four-five days in advance.
- Adaptation to heatwaves can be effective to minimize the negative impacts, by developing a comprehensive heat response plan that includes early warnings, awareness rising and technology intervention.
- India has now a strong national framework for heat action plans involving the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the National and State disaster management authorities, and local bodies.
- Early warning systems are an integral part of this heat action plan.
Can we then predict heatwaves two weeks in advance and what about a season in advance?
- A recent study published in the Scientific Reports by the scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has shown that heatwave genesis and duration in India can be predicted with good skill up to two weeks in advance.
- They have used the hindcasts from the MoES Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) that uses ensemble method combining four atmospheric general circulation models.
Improved prediction
- The model could reproduce the spatial distribution of heatwave frequency and duration very well. The model also showed useful skill in predicting the characteristics of heatwaves for different months (April to June) separately.
- The model skill in predicting heatwaves arises due to its fidelity in reproducing the impacts of ENSO and the Indian Ocean on atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Indian region.
- Thus, we have an end-to-end seamless prediction system to predict heatwaves in all time scales, from short-range to seasonal. The seasonal forecast will provide an outlook or probability of frequency and duration of heatwaves, one season in advance.
- This early outlook can be further strengthened using the extended range (two weeks) and short range (four-five days) forecasts for more focused region-wise response strategies.
- Seasonal forecasts should use a multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasting strategy. Short- range ensemble forecasts should use higher resolution global models, initialized with observed soil moisture data, which are available from microwave satellites and IMD’s soil moisture network. We should then expect more advanced forecasting system for heatwaves in the near future.
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[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]2021 WEF Global Gender Gap report, which confirmed its 2016 finding of a decline in worldwide progress towards gender parity.
Over 2.8 billion women are legally restricted from having the same choice of jobs as men. As many as 104 countries still have laws preventing women from working in specific jobs, 59 countries have no laws on sexual harassment in the workplace, and it is astonishing that a handful of countries still allow husbands to legally stop their wives from working.
Globally, women’s participation in the labour force is estimated at 63% (as against 94% of men who participate), but India’s is at a dismal 25% or so currently. Most women are in informal and vulnerable employment—domestic help, agriculture, etc—and are always paid less than men.
Recent reports from Assam suggest that women workers in plantations are paid much less than men and never promoted to supervisory roles. The gender wage gap is about 24% globally, and women have lost far more jobs than men during lockdowns.
The problem of gender disparity is compounded by hurdles put up by governments, society and businesses: unequal access to social security schemes, banking services, education, digital services and so on, even as a glass ceiling has kept leadership roles out of women’s reach.
Yes, many governments and businesses had been working on parity before the pandemic struck. But the global gender gap, defined by differences reflected in the social, political, intellectual, cultural and economic attainments or attitudes of men and women, will not narrow in the near future without all major stakeholders working together on a clear agenda—that of economic growth by inclusion.
The WEF report estimates 135 years to close the gap at our current rate of progress based on four pillars: educational attainment, health, economic participation and political empowerment.
India has slipped from rank 112 to 140 in a single year, confirming how hard women were hit by the pandemic. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the only two Asian countries that fared worse.
Here are a few things we must do:
One, frame policies for equal-opportunity employment. Use technology and artificial intelligence to eliminate biases of gender, caste, etc, and select candidates at all levels on merit. Numerous surveys indicate that women in general have a better chance of landing jobs if their gender is not known to recruiters.
Two, foster a culture of gender sensitivity. Take a review of current policies and move from gender-neutral to gender-sensitive. Encourage and insist on diversity and inclusion at all levels, and promote more women internally to leadership roles. Demolish silos to let women grab potential opportunities in hitherto male-dominant roles. Work-from-home has taught us how efficiently women can manage flex-timings and productivity.
Three, deploy corporate social responsibility (CSR) funds for the education and skilling of women and girls at the bottom of the pyramid. CSR allocations to toilet building, the PM-Cares fund and firms’ own trusts could be re-channelled for this.
Four, get more women into research and development (R&D) roles. A study of over 4,000 companies found that more women in R&D jobs resulted in radical innovation. It appears women score far higher than men in championing change. If you seek growth from affordable products and services for low-income groups, women often have the best ideas.
Five, break barriers to allow progress. Cultural and structural issues must be fixed. Unconscious biases and discrimination are rampant even in highly-esteemed organizations. Establish fair and transparent human resource policies.
Six, get involved in local communities to engage them. As Michael Porter said, it is not possible for businesses to sustain long-term shareholder value without ensuring the welfare of the communities they exist in. It is in the best interest of enterprises to engage with local communities to understand and work towards lowering cultural and other barriers in society. It will also help connect with potential customers, employees and special interest groups driving the gender-equity agenda and achieve better diversity.