Snapshot
What Martin Ford predicts in his book, The Rise of the Robots, about the state of jobs in the future is far from bright. Are jobs getting away from us?
Winner of the FT & McKinsey & Company Business Book of the Year 2015 Award, Martin Ford’s The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of Mass Unemployment (2015) talks about how businesses are automating jobs in large numbers, causing unemployment in the millions. Another book deals with the same theme: the ebook Race Against the Machine (2011), written by professors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee narrate the story of the inventor of chess.
On inventing chess, the inventor shows his creation to the emperor. The emperor, pleased with the game, asks him to name his reward. The clever inventor asks for one grain of rice for the first square of the chessboard, two grains for the second, four for the third and so on, with each square receiving twice as many grains as the previous square.
The emperor underestimates the size of the reward and agrees to it. The constant doubling results in very large numbers and, at the 64th square, the clever inventor stands to receive a pile of rice much bigger than Mount Everest – much more rice than ever existed on the planet.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee make the point that up to the 32nd square, the quantity of rice is not very large; at the 32nd square, the inventor stands to receive about four billion grains of rice, a reasonable number.
It is when they proceed to the second half of the chessboard that the compounding yields devastatingly large numbers. Brynjolfsson and McAfee use this chessboard scenario as an analogy to explain what’s happening with technology and jobs today.
The authors tell us that we are seeing a constant doubling in the technology domain.
Moore’s law predicts a doubling of computing power every 18 to 24 months. Are we in the second half of the chessboard yet?
More than 32 doublings have taken place since the computer was introduced in the 1950s, and Moore’s law still holds valid. This persistent doubling has resulted in some drastic changes to both society and business.
In the United States, in the first decade of the twenty-first century, the net job growth rate has been zero. Zilch.
This is not only because of the 2008 crisis, but also because several jobs are getting automated by technology and robots. In spite of this (towards the end of their ebook), Brynjolfsson and McAfee see an optimistic future where people will work harmoniously in tandem with robots, and the world will continue to hum along.
In The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of Mass Unemployment, Ford takes a more pessimistic view. Ford writes:
In general, computers are becoming very proficient at acquiring skills, especially when a large amount of training data is available. Entry-level jobs, in particular, are likely to be heavily affected, and there is evidence that this may already be occurring. Wages for new university graduates have actually been declining over the past decade, while up to 50 percent of new graduates are forced to take jobs that do not require a degree.
In the beginning of the Industrial Age, there were many cotton workers who lost their jobs due to automation of cotton spinning. But other sectors flourished, and many cotton workers secured employment elsewhere.
Now, we are seeing automation in virtually every sector and it raises the spectre of mass unemployment across sectors. The world, according to Ford, may be controlled by an elite minority who own automated industries – and inequality will be high and widespread.
Ford is an expert at tackling the technology part – he covers things like nanotechnology and 3D printing and deep learning – and he is no less adept at economics. He asks what the government can do when faced with the threat of mass unemployment.
We need a paradigm shift in economics, he says. Citing Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek, he recommends the provision of a basic, or guaranteed, income which would help people survive in times of adversity without killing off ambition or aspirations.
What does the future bode for us: the Pollyannaish picture painted by Brynjolfsson and McAfee, or the dismal doom depicted in Ford’s book? This is an important question since the outcome is going to affect us and our children
# Trending Now
Subscribe
Related Posts
- Anonymity: Darknet allows users to communicate and transact with each other anonymously. Users can maintain their privacy and avoid being tracked by law enforcement agencies or other entities.
- Access to Information: The darknet provides access to information and resources that may be otherwise unavailable or censored on the regular internet. This can include political or sensitive information that is not allowed to be disseminated through other channels.
- Freedom of Speech: The darknet can be a platform for free speech, as users are able to express their opinions and ideas without fear of censorship or retribution.
- Secure Communication: Darknet sites are encrypted, which means that communication between users is secure and cannot be intercepted by third parties.
- Illegal Activities: Many darknet sites are associated with illegal activities, such as drug trafficking, weapon sales, and hacking services. Such activities can attract criminals and expose users to serious legal risks.
- Scams: The darknet is a hotbed for scams, with many fake vendors and websites that aim to steal users’ personal information and cryptocurrency. The lack of regulation and oversight on the darknet means that users must be cautious when conducting transactions.
- Security Risks: The use of the darknet can expose users to malware and other security risks, as many sites are not properly secured or monitored. Users may also be vulnerable to hacking or phishing attacks.
- Stigma: The association of the darknet with illegal activities has created a stigma that may deter some users from using it for legitimate purposes.
- Virtual assistants: Siri, Alexa, and Google Assistant are examples of virtual assistants that use natural language processing to understand and respond to users’ queries.
- Recommendation systems: Companies like Netflix and Amazon use AI to recommend movies and products to their users based on their browsing and purchase history.
- Efficiency: AI systems can work continuously without getting tired or making errors, which can save time and resources.
- Personalization: AI can help provide personalized recommendations and experiences for users.
- Automation: AI can automate repetitive and tedious tasks, freeing up time for humans to focus on more complex tasks.
- Job loss: AI has the potential to automate jobs previously performed by humans, leading to job loss and economic disruption.
- Bias: AI systems can be biased due to the data they are trained on, leading to unfair or discriminatory outcomes.
- Safety and privacy concerns: AI systems can pose safety risks if they malfunction or are used maliciously, and can also raise privacy concerns if they collect and use personal data without consent.
Darknet
Definition:
Darknet, also known as dark web or darknet market, refers to the part of the internet that is not indexed or accessible through traditional search engines. It is a network of private and encrypted websites that cannot be accessed through regular web browsers and requires special software and configuration to access.
The darknet is often associated with illegal activities such as drug trafficking, weapon sales, and hacking services, although not all sites on the darknet are illegal.
Examples:
Examples of darknet markets include Silk Road, AlphaBay, and Dream Market, which were all shut down by law enforcement agencies in recent years.
These marketplaces operate similarly to e-commerce websites, with vendors selling various illegal goods and services, such as drugs, counterfeit documents, and hacking tools, and buyers paying with cryptocurrency for their purchases.
Pros :
Cons:
Artificial Intelligence
Definition:
AI, or artificial intelligence, refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks that would normally require human intelligence, such as recognizing speech, making decisions, and understanding natural language.
Examples:
Pros :
Cons:
Recent Posts
- Anonymity: Darknet allows users to communicate and transact with each other anonymously. Users can maintain their privacy and avoid being tracked by law enforcement agencies or other entities.
- Access to Information: The darknet provides access to information and resources that may be otherwise unavailable or censored on the regular internet. This can include political or sensitive information that is not allowed to be disseminated through other channels.
- Freedom of Speech: The darknet can be a platform for free speech, as users are able to express their opinions and ideas without fear of censorship or retribution.
- Secure Communication: Darknet sites are encrypted, which means that communication between users is secure and cannot be intercepted by third parties.
- Illegal Activities: Many darknet sites are associated with illegal activities, such as drug trafficking, weapon sales, and hacking services. Such activities can attract criminals and expose users to serious legal risks.
- Scams: The darknet is a hotbed for scams, with many fake vendors and websites that aim to steal users’ personal information and cryptocurrency. The lack of regulation and oversight on the darknet means that users must be cautious when conducting transactions.
- Security Risks: The use of the darknet can expose users to malware and other security risks, as many sites are not properly secured or monitored. Users may also be vulnerable to hacking or phishing attacks.
- Stigma: The association of the darknet with illegal activities has created a stigma that may deter some users from using it for legitimate purposes.
- Virtual assistants: Siri, Alexa, and Google Assistant are examples of virtual assistants that use natural language processing to understand and respond to users’ queries.
- Recommendation systems: Companies like Netflix and Amazon use AI to recommend movies and products to their users based on their browsing and purchase history.
- Efficiency: AI systems can work continuously without getting tired or making errors, which can save time and resources.
- Personalization: AI can help provide personalized recommendations and experiences for users.
- Automation: AI can automate repetitive and tedious tasks, freeing up time for humans to focus on more complex tasks.
- Job loss: AI has the potential to automate jobs previously performed by humans, leading to job loss and economic disruption.
- Bias: AI systems can be biased due to the data they are trained on, leading to unfair or discriminatory outcomes.
- Safety and privacy concerns: AI systems can pose safety risks if they malfunction or are used maliciously, and can also raise privacy concerns if they collect and use personal data without consent.
Darknet
Definition:
Darknet, also known as dark web or darknet market, refers to the part of the internet that is not indexed or accessible through traditional search engines. It is a network of private and encrypted websites that cannot be accessed through regular web browsers and requires special software and configuration to access.
The darknet is often associated with illegal activities such as drug trafficking, weapon sales, and hacking services, although not all sites on the darknet are illegal.
Examples:
Examples of darknet markets include Silk Road, AlphaBay, and Dream Market, which were all shut down by law enforcement agencies in recent years.
These marketplaces operate similarly to e-commerce websites, with vendors selling various illegal goods and services, such as drugs, counterfeit documents, and hacking tools, and buyers paying with cryptocurrency for their purchases.
Pros :
Cons:
Artificial Intelligence
Definition:
AI, or artificial intelligence, refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks that would normally require human intelligence, such as recognizing speech, making decisions, and understanding natural language.
Examples:
Pros :
Cons: