“In a letter to India’s PM, Mohamed bin Zayed expresses thanks for the kind invitation to attend India’s Republic Day celebrations”, adding, in a second tweet: “Our strong relations are deeply rooted in history; our strategic cooperation has increased, driven by our mutual aspirations to develop it.”
While such mutual acknowledgements and appreciations are nothing new, what is new is the freshness and vibrancy in a relationship that had been allowed to sink into a sense of indifference and apathy. This applies not just to the UAE, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited in August 2015 (reciprocated by Shaikh Mohammed bin Zayed in February 2016), but to virtually all the other countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).
Much of the fault lies on the side of past Indian governments. Note, for instance, that the last visit to the UAE before that of Modi was in 1981 by Indira Gandhi.
This is the sort of inattention paid to a country that happens to be one of our largest trading partners (nearly $60 billion in two-way trade in 2014-2015), and where over a million Indian expatriates reside (out of more than 2 million in the GCC as a whole).
Things are changing, and fast. There are a number of reasons for this, and one cannot give all the kudos to the current government. But it must be credited with recognising the opportunities and grasping them with vigour.
Relations with virtually every GCC country is on the fast track – namely, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. And they have taken a very robust strategic dimension; defence related engagements have picked up across the board, and it would be fair to say that the GCC now views India as a net security provider in the Arabian Sea, as a trusted partner in those waters.
What is becoming clear is that India is now beginning to ease into an enhanced defence engagement with these countries bilaterally. This is, again, not something new in that the momentum has been building for years. But now the geo-political environment is primed for a much closer partnership. Consider these realities:
Iran is now out of the woods, and back in the good books of the US (relatively speaking). This changes the regional dynamics significantly, given that the GCC states are either in an antagonistic posture with Tehran, or managing a very delicate balancing act.
The US seems to gradually disengaging from the region, from a strategic perspective, or so it would appear to those who have observed President Obama’s reluctance to engage with the GCC quite as intensively as they might have liked (considering especially Washington’s Iranian outreach).
Pakistan, long a reliable supplier of soldiers for rent to the GCC countries, has of late developed a distaste for overseas deployments of its men in uniform. At a time of need, when the GCC countries requested Islamabad to support them in their military campaign in Yemen, Pakistan refused. From the Gulf rulers’ point of view, that refusal showed an untrustworthiness that will be hard to ignore.
In all the above cases, India can be a force of positivity for the GCC states. A long-standing relationship of trust and loyalty with Iran means New Delhi can be an effective go-between in the event the relationship between Tehran and the Gulf countries deteriorate.
The US, having carefully observed India’s role in the region and having dramatically expanded its own relationship with New Delhi, is happy to have a responsible power shouldering some of the security management burdens in the strategically vital area between the Strait of Hormuz and the Horn of Africa, at the mouth of the Red Sea.
As for Pakistan, it will surprise no one that the GCC states are well aware that their strengthening ties with India are bound to make Islamabad extremely uncomfortable. From their point of view, considering Islamabad’s posture on Yemen, that is a happy by-product (not the objective) of a natural growth in the content and sophistication of their engagement with New Delhi.
As India’s economy grows and as the commercial linkages with the GCC develop in quantity and quality, we can be certain that military co-operation will expand apace.
The UAE and India have already instituted a $75 billion India Infrastructure Fund. Undoubtedly, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will join the fray in a comparable way. It is not inconceivable that, within the next decade, India could have security agreements with these countries that will envisage a protective role.
The Modi government has hit the ground running in terms of its relationship with the GCC states, and is now sprinting ahead. The invitation to Shaikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan is a harbinger of much more to come.
Recent Posts
- In the Large States category (overall), Chhattisgarh ranks 1st, followed by Odisha and Telangana, whereas, towards the bottom are Maharashtra at 16th, Assam at 17th and Gujarat at 18th. Gujarat is one State that has seen startling performance ranking 5th in the PAI 2021 Index outperforming traditionally good performing States like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, but ranks last in terms of Delta
- In the Small States category (overall), Nagaland tops, followed by Mizoram and Tripura. Towards the tail end of the overall Delta ranking is Uttarakhand (9th), Arunachal Pradesh (10th) and Meghalaya (11th). Nagaland despite being a poor performer in the PAI 2021 Index has come out to be the top performer in Delta, similarly, Mizoram’s performance in Delta is also reflected in it’s ranking in the PAI 2021 Index
- In terms of Equity, in the Large States category, Chhattisgarh has the best Delta rate on Equity indicators, this is also reflected in the performance of Chhattisgarh in the Equity Pillar where it ranks 4th. Following Chhattisgarh is Odisha ranking 2nd in Delta-Equity ranking, but ranks 17th in the Equity Pillar of PAI 2021. Telangana ranks 3rd in Delta-Equity ranking even though it is not a top performer in this Pillar in the overall PAI 2021 Index. Jharkhand (16th), Uttar Pradesh (17th) and Assam (18th) rank at the bottom with Uttar Pradesh’s performance in line with the PAI 2021 Index
- Odisha and Nagaland have shown the best year-on-year improvement under 12 Key Development indicators.
- In the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Goa and Tamil Nadu and, the bottom three performers are Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar.
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers were Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Mizoram; and, the bottom three performers are Manipur, Assam and Meghalaya.
- Among the 60:40 division States, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are the top three performers and Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Delhi appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland; and, the bottom three performers are Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh
- Among the 60:40 division States, Goa, West Bengal and Delhi appear as the top three performers and Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh and Tripura were the top three performers and Jammu & Kashmir, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh were the bottom three performers
- West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu were the top three States amongst the 60:40 division States; while Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan appeared as the bottom three performers
- In the case of 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Assam and Tripura were the top three performers and Nagaland, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand featured as the bottom three
- Among the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and the bottom three performers are Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Goa
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Mizoram, Sikkim and Nagaland and the bottom three performers are Manipur and Assam
In a diverse country like India, where each State is socially, culturally, economically, and politically distinct, measuring Governance becomes increasingly tricky. The Public Affairs Index (PAI 2021) is a scientifically rigorous, data-based framework that measures the quality of governance at the Sub-national level and ranks the States and Union Territories (UTs) of India on a Composite Index (CI).
States are classified into two categories – Large and Small – using population as the criteria.
In PAI 2021, PAC defined three significant pillars that embody Governance – Growth, Equity, and Sustainability. Each of the three Pillars is circumscribed by five governance praxis Themes.
The themes include – Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
At the bottom of the pyramid, 43 component indicators are mapped to 14 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are relevant to the States and UTs.
This forms the foundation of the conceptual framework of PAI 2021. The choice of the 43 indicators that go into the calculation of the CI were dictated by the objective of uncovering the complexity and multidimensional character of development governance
The Equity Principle
The Equity Pillar of the PAI 2021 Index analyses the inclusiveness impact at the Sub-national level in the country; inclusiveness in terms of the welfare of a society that depends primarily on establishing that all people feel that they have a say in the governance and are not excluded from the mainstream policy framework.
This requires all individuals and communities, but particularly the most vulnerable, to have an opportunity to improve or maintain their wellbeing. This chapter of PAI 2021 reflects the performance of States and UTs during the pandemic and questions the governance infrastructure in the country, analysing the effectiveness of schemes and the general livelihood of the people in terms of Equity.
Growth and its Discontents
Growth in its multidimensional form encompasses the essence of access to and the availability and optimal utilisation of resources. By resources, PAI 2021 refer to human resources, infrastructure and the budgetary allocations. Capacity building of an economy cannot take place if all the key players of growth do not drive development. The multiplier effects of better health care, improved educational outcomes, increased capital accumulation and lower unemployment levels contribute magnificently in the growth and development of the States.
The Pursuit Of Sustainability
The Sustainability Pillar analyses the access to and usage of resources that has an impact on environment, economy and humankind. The Pillar subsumes two themes and uses seven indicators to measure the effectiveness of government efforts with regards to Sustainability.
The Curious Case Of The Delta
The Delta Analysis presents the results on the State performance on year-on-year improvement. The rankings are measured as the Delta value over the last five to 10 years of data available for 12 Key Development Indicators (KDI). In PAI 2021, 12 indicators across the three Pillars of Equity (five indicators), Growth (five indicators) and Sustainability (two indicators). These KDIs are the outcome indicators crucial to assess Human Development. The Performance in the Delta Analysis is then compared to the Overall PAI 2021 Index.
Key Findings:-
In the Scheme of Things
The Scheme Analysis adds an additional dimension to ranking of the States on their governance. It attempts to complement the Governance Model by trying to understand the developmental activities undertaken by State Governments in the form of schemes. It also tries to understand whether better performance of States in schemes reflect in better governance.
The Centrally Sponsored schemes that were analysed are National Health Mission (NHM), Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services scheme (ICDS), Mahatma Gandh National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan (SmSA) and MidDay Meal Scheme (MDMS).
National Health Mission (NHM)
INTEGRATED CHILD DEVELOPMENT SERVICES (ICDS)
MID- DAY MEAL SCHEME (MDMS)
SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN (SMSA)
MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEME (MGNREGS)