Extreme Heat
| What we know |
India is already experiencing a warming climate. |
| What could happen |
Unusual and unprecedented spells of hot weather are expected to occur far more frequently and cover much larger areas.Under 4°C warming, the west coast and southern India are projected to shift to new, high-temperature climatic regimes with significant impacts on agriculture. |
| What can be done |
With built-up urban areas rapidly becoming “heat-islands”, urban planners will need to adopt measures to counteract this effect. |
Changing Rainfall Patterns
| What we know |
A decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s has already been observed. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has also increased. |
| What could happen |
A 2°C rise in the world’s average temperatures will make India’s summer monsoon highly unpredictable.At 4°C warming, an extremely wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring only once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century.An abrupt change in the monsoon could precipitate a major crisis, triggering more frequent droughts as well as greater flooding in large parts of India.India’s northwest coast to the south eastern coastal region could see higher than average rainfall.Dry years are expected to be drier and wet years wetter. |
| What can be done |
Improvements in hydro-meteorological systems for weather forecasting and the installation of flood warning systems can help people move out of harm’s way before a weather-related disaster strikes.Building codes will need to be enforced to ensure that homes and infrastructure are not at risk. |
Droughts
| What we know |
Evidence indicates that parts of South Asia have become drier since the 1970s with an increase in the number of droughts.Droughts have major consequences. In 1987 and 2002-2003, droughts affected more than half of India’s crop area and led to a huge fall in crop production. |
| What could happen |
Droughts are expected to be more frequent in some areas, especially in north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.Crop yields are expected to fall significantly because of extreme heat by the 2040s. |
| What can be done |
Investments in R&D for the development of drought-resistant crops can help reduce some of the negative impacts. |
Groundwater
| What we know |
More than 60% of India’s agriculture is rain-fed, making the country highly dependent on groundwater.Even without climate change, 15% of India’s groundwater resources are overexploited. |
| What could happen |
Although it is difficult to predict future ground water levels, falling water tables can be expected to reduce further on account of increasing demand for water from a growing population, more affluent life styles, as well as from the services sector and industry. |
| What can be done |
The efficient use of ground water resources will need to be incentivized. |
Glacier Melt
| What we know |
Glaciers in the northwestern Himalayas and in the Karakoram range – where westerly winter winds are the major source of moisture – have remained stable or even advanced.On the other hand, most Himalayan glaciers – where a substantial part of the moisture is supplied by the summer monsoon – have been retreating over the past century. |
| What could happen |
At 2.5°C warming, melting glaciers and the loss of snow cover over the Himalayas are expected to threaten the stability and reliability of northern India’s primarily glacier-fed rivers, particularly the Indus and the Brahmaputra. The Ganges will be less dependent on melt water due to high annual rainfall downstream during the monsoon season.The Indus and Brahmaputra are expected to see increased flows in spring when the snows melt, with flows reducing subsequently in late spring and summer.Alterations in the flows of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers could significantly impact irrigation, affecting the amount of food that can be produced in their basins as well as the livelihoods of millions of people (209 million in the Indus basin, 478 million in the Ganges basin, and 62 million in the Brahmaputra basin in the year 2005). |
| What can be done |
Major investments in water storage capacity would be needed to benefit from increased river flows in spring and compensate for lower flows later on. |
Sea level rise
| What we know |
Mumbai has the world’s largest population exposed to coastal flooding, with large parts of the city built on reclaimed land, below the high-tide mark. Rapid and unplanned urbanization further increases the risks of sea water intrusion. |
| What could happen |
With India close to the equator, the sub-continent would see much higher rises in sea levels than higher latitudes.Sea-level rise and storm surges would lead to saltwater intrusion in the coastal areas, impacting agriculture, degrading groundwater quality, contaminating drinking water, and possibly causing a rise in diarrhea cases and cholera outbreaks, as the cholera bacterium survives longer in saline water.Kolkata and Mumbai, both densely populated cities, are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and riverine flooding. |
| What can be done |
Building codes will need to be strictly enforced and urban planning will need to prepare for climate-related disasters.Coastal embankments will need to be built where necessary and Coastal Regulation Zone codes enforced strictly. |
Agriculture and food security
| What we know |
Even without climate change, world food prices are expected to increase due to growing populations and rising incomes, as well as a greater demand for biofuels.Rice: While overall rice yields have increased, rising temperatures with lower rainfall at the end of the growing season have caused a significant loss in India’s rice production. Without climate change, average rice yields could have been almost 6% higher (75 million tons in absolute terms).Wheat: Recent studies shows that wheat yields peaked in India and Bangladesh around 2001 and have not increased since despite increasing fertilizer applications. Observations show that extremely high temperatures in northern India – above 34°C – have had a substantial negative effect on wheat yields, and rising temperatures can only aggravate the situation. |
| What could happen |
Seasonal water scarcity, rising temperatures, and intrusion of sea water would threaten crop yields, jeopardizing the country’s food security.Should current trends persist, substantial yield reductions in both rice and wheat can be expected in the near and medium term.Under 2°C warming by the 2050s, the country may need to import more than twice the amount of food-grain than would be required without climate change. |
| What can be done |
Crop diversification, more efficient water use, and improved soil management practices, together with the development of drought-resistant crops can help reduce some of the negative impacts. |
Energy Security
| What we know |
Climate-related impacts on water resources can undermine the two dominant forms of power generation in India – hydropower and thermal power generation – both of which depend on adequate water supplies to function effectively.To function at full efficiency, thermal power plants need a constant supply of fresh cool water to maintain their cooling systems. |
| What could happen |
The increasing variability and long-term decreases in river flows can pose a major challenge to hydropower plants and increase the risk of physical damage from landslides, flash floods, glacial lake outbursts, and other climate-related natural disasters.Decreases in the availability of water and increases in temperature will pose major risk factors to thermal power generation. |
| What can be done |
Projects will need to be planed taking into account climatic risks. |
Water Security
| What we know |
Many parts of India are already experiencing water stress. Even without climate change, satisfying future demand for water will be a major challenge.Urbanization, population growth, economic development, and increasing demand for water from agriculture and industry are likely to aggravate the situation further. |
| What could happen |
An increase in variability of monsoon rainfall is expected to increase water shortages in some areas.Studies have found that the threat to water security is very high over central India, along the mountain ranges of the Western Ghats, and in India’s northeastern states. |
| What can be done |
Improvements in irrigation systems, water harvesting techniques, and more-efficient agricultural water management can offset some of these risks. |
Health
| What we know |
Climate change is expected to have major health impacts in India- increasing malnutrition and related health disorders such as child stunting – with the poor likely to be affected most severely. Child stunting is projected to increase by 35% by 2050 compared to a scenario without climate change.Malaria and other vector-borne diseases, along with and diarrheal infections which are a major cause of child mortality, are likely to spread into areas where colder temperatures had previously limited transmission.Heat waves are likely to result in a very substantial rise in mortality and death, and injuries from extreme weather events are likely to increase. |
| What could happen |
Health systems will need to be strengthened in identified hotspots. |
| What can be done |
Improvements in hydro-meteorological systems for weather forecasting and the installation of flood warning systems can help people move out of harm’s way before a weather-related disaster strikes.Building codes will need to be enforced to ensure that homes and infrastructure are not at risk. |
Migration and conflict
| What we know |
South Asia is a hotspot for the migration of people from disaster-affected or degraded areas to other national and international regions.The Indus and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins are major trans boundary rivers, and increasing demand for water is already leading to tensions among countries over water sharing. |
| What could happen |
Climate change impacts on agriculture and livelihoods can increase the number of climate refugees. |
| What can be done |
Regional cooperation on water issues will be needed. |
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.