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Background:-

There has been a hue and cry as far as demonetization is concerned since the night of November 8. Meanwhile, while we were observant of the various developments, we took a decision to wait until the whole story unfolds.Since November 9 , probably each newspaper had published more than 20 articles on the issue. Every erudite in the country , had an opinion about it, moreover every citizen of the country has an opinion about it.

The single move gave a rather  “hungry media” a “giant meatloaf” and they have been chewing on it since then. Every day, and in every form of media, the story of demonetization is unfolding. Some analysis are vary personal and emotional in nature, while some are very rational in nature, some are individualistic and some have broader perspective.

But if you look closely, those who wanted to blame the move, they went on to sight and find cases where due to demonetization “someone” had suffered. Even a Bengali director made a movie about it named- “Shoonyata“, and of course as anticipated the movie shows the problems that unfold when a bride is about to get married and demonetization is announced. The movie is simply individualistic in nature, that means it tries to show the plight of a single bride, and through this the director wants to paint it as everybody’s plight.

So, before we delve into details of demonetization, it is certain that different corners of the society have different opinions about it as they endured the demonetization. To sum up, who are impacted and who are not, here is a rather simplified list :-

  1. Super rich/Rich with legitimate business- No impact or very little impact
  2. Upper-middle class- Not much impact
  3. Middle class-Not much impact beyond the obvious
  4. Neo-middle class- Probably hardest hit, mostly blue-collar workers who lost their job or were unable to be paid by their employer
  5. BPL household- Marginally hit

However, this is a historic move, because, there are no other such decisions which might impact each nook and corner of India and every citizen. Money after all is a basic necessity apart from the usual rhetoric of – “Roti,Kapda aur Makan” (“Food,Cloth and Shelter”)

Being a giant of a decision, it was necessary for us to not give into temptation and publish every article of the newspapers. So, we waited, watched, we observed and now is the time to publish.

History of demonetization:-

In 1971, the Wanchoo Committee had submitted an interim report in which it had recommended, among other reforms, the demonetisation of high-value currency notes. Y B Chavan was then finance minister. Retired civil servant, Madhav Godbole, in his book Unfinished Innings: Recollections and Reflections of a Civil Servant tells us that after many deliberations over the matter, demonetisation was accepted along with other reforms suggested by the committee.

However, “in view of the sensitive nature of the subject and the need for maintaining utmost secrecy”, the prime minister’s approval was needed. So Chavan went to meet Indira. And this is what he told Godbole about his meeting with Indira on the issue.

When Y.B. Chavan told Indira Gandhi about the proposal for demonetization and his view that it should be accepted and implemented forthwith, she asked Chavan only one question: “Chavanji, are no more elections to be fought by the Congress Party?” Chavan got the message and the recommendation was shelved.

Here is the Analysis:-

So, what exactly happened on 8 November?

Prime Minister addressed the nation and announced that effective from 9 November, all Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes of the current series (including pre-2005 ones) would cease to be legal tender. That means people could not use them to buy and sell goods and services. Technically, this was not demonetisation, but de-legalisation. The actual demonetisation happened with the proclamation, on 30 December, of the Specified Bank Notes (Cessation of Liabilities) Ordinance, 2016, which reduced those notes to worthless bits of paper.

What does the ordinance do and why was it necessary?

Under Section 34 of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934, the central bank has a liability to honour every currency note – anyone presenting that note has to get the value printed on it, whether Re 1 or Rs 2,000.  As long as a note does not come back to the RBI, it continues to be a liability.

The only way this liability can end is for the government to expressly state that the old notes cannot be redeemed any more, which is what the ordinance does.

How much of old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes were sloshing around before 8 November? How much has been returned or exchanged?

As of 9 November, the high denomination notes worth Rs 15.44 lakh crore was with the public.

There are various estimates of the money that has come in, based on data from the RBI, but it’s best to wait till the central bank puts out a figure. There could be double counting in the estimates that are going around right now.

Besides, though one will get a pretty accurate estimate in a few days or a week, an absolutely exact figure on notes returned will be known only after some months. Remember, that while the deadline for deposit of the old notes in banks ended on 30 December, resident Indians can still deposit these notes in the offices of the RBI till 31 March and non-resident Indians (NRIs) can do so till 30 June. These are the only two windows given by the ordinance. Resident Indians will have to give a declaration that they were outside the country between 9 November and 30 December.

In addition, people can declare their unaccounted wealth held in cash under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana, the second income declaration scheme that was announced on 16 December. The window for this too is open till 31 March. (Some of this could be in new notes, if black money holders have managed to launder the cash they held.)

But the amount returned by NRIs between 31 March and 30 June is not likely to be huge, so it is best to wait till mid-April to get a sense of how much of the demonetised currency has been returned.

Can the window given to NRIs be used to launder large sums of money?

Unlikely. A notification under the ordinance stipulates that the amount of demonetised currency returned by an NRI cannot exceed what is specified under the Foreign Exchange Management (Export and Import of Currency) Regulations, 2015, issued under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999. That limit is Rs 25,000. That’s why the amount returned by NRIs is not likely to be huge.

What is this fuss about my not being able to even keep old notes with me?

The ordinance gives a grace period (31 March and 30 June) for the return of the demonetised currency. So it is not as if you will be penalised for holding old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes between 30 December and 31 March. Beyond this grace period, a person can hold only a total of 10 notes of both denominations (five Rs 500 and five Rs 1,000 or two Rs 1,000 and eight Rs 500, or all 10 of the same value etc) or only 25 notes for study, research or numismatics.

Anyone holding more than this (other than the RBI or anyone ordered to do so by a court in connection with a case) will have to pay a fine of Rs 10,000 or five times the amount of the value of currency found with him, whichever is higher.

Since these notes will be just worthless pieces of paper, what is wrong if I, say, decide to make a collage of 100 pieces and put it up in my drawing room? Or just keep it in my locker and periodically rue the day I decided to evade taxes or make money through crooked means?

Good question, this provision does defy logic. But, no answer. It’s also not clear how the authorities will come to know about people holding more than the specified number of notes beyond the grace period.

Fifty days on, has the inconvenience ended?

The short answer to this is, no, though the situation has improved since the first two weeks post 8 November. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and RBI governor Urjit Patel have assured that there is enough supply of cash. But all of this is not making its way to banks. The curbs on cash withdrawal have not been rolled back entirely; though the limits for ATM withdrawals have been increased from Rs 2,500 to Rs 4,500 but the weekly withdrawal limit remains at Rs 24,000. There are still ATMs and bank branches with no cash, even in metros. For every story of no inconvenience, there is another of inconvenience and harassment.

Has demonetisation met the objectives it was supposed to achieve?

The jury is still out on this.

In his 8 November address, PM said the move was meant to “break the grip of corruption and black money”.

But black money is a consequence and not a cause of corruption. Merely demonetising high value notes will not eliminate corruption; discretionary power in the hands of the politicians and bureaucrats has to end. This needs a complete recast of governance systems.

The fact that through the past 50 days, there have been seizures of large volumes and value of new currency notes shows that the money-laundering industry has not been hit at all by the demonetisation move. All that happened was that the commission dropped from 40 per cent before the announcement of the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana to 25 per cent.

Funding of political parties also needs a complete revamp. Political parties are a major conduit for unaccounted money and large cash donations are quite common. Cash donations up to Rs 20,000 need not be reported to the Election Commission and this is a major loophole that all political parties exploit. Nothing has happened to change this.

In his address, the PM also spoke about how fake notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 have been used in terror financing. The new notes have extra security features and were supposed to deal a body blow to the counterfeiting industry. But the seizure of some counterfeiting machines in the past week has raised some doubts about this as well.

UPSCTREE’s understanding of the issue:-

Was it a “bold” move, is there any ethics involved ?

A simple example can clear whether it was a bold move or not. Following India’s demonetization  , another country followed suit, i.e. Venezuela and it resulted in civil war and govt of that country had to roll back the decision.So, in sum, it was a a bold move,  and given the size of the country and 87% transaction being carried out via cash, it was not only a bold but probably an audacious move.It could have been a political disaster and the PM would have no more been the PM- it was that big a risk to take on this “gamble”.The example of Venezuela is testament to it.

So, the next question is why there was no civil war, and this is purely a question of ethics, more specifically virtue ethics.

As per virtue ethics, an act seems ethical because it is carried out by an ethical person.In this case, people don’t judge the act but they judge the actor and form opinions according to it.Given the PM’s persona, people of India, took a leap of faith in the PM, majority were judging the PM than the act of PM.

This is because, there can not be a “Yes and No ” or “black and white” answer to this decision.Some benefits are visible and some benefits will never be visible and same goes for the “bad impacts” as well.It is a indeed a matter of “grey”, however most opinions emanating from different corners of society is either Yes or No.Economists themselves don’t have enough statistics of black economy, so it is worthwhile to ponder how general populace form their opinion and this is precisely the reason why we looked at it from an ethical angel and that gives us some clue of the popular psyche and the way they form the decisions.

Is there any benefit of this decision ?

The PM has a record of being an incremental reformer, but this is a “disruptive” move.The benefit , both short term and long-term are listed below :-

Economy

  1. Cost of real estate will come down- making housing affordable.It is indeed a recession like condition for real-estate mafias, and if accompanied  by amendment to Benami Trasaction Act , it will have some real impact in this sector.
  2. Inflation is low
  3. Push for digital-economy
  4. Helps in curbing terror-financing and other threats to state such as Naxalism
  5. A fat deposit in banks may lead to cut in lending rates. It helped in debt-recovery and reduced NPA to some extent

Goveranance

In terms of governance, it helped establish the trust between people and state. For long, the many had the notion that they can get away with illegal means (tax evasion) etc, but this decision established the fact that govt. is willing to go any length to reward good-ones and punish the bad-ones. For long it was other way around, the bad-ones used to garner ill-gotten wealth and managed to get away with it (Just a recall of almost all movies of the last few decades may give the idea, where the good-ones are punished by the wicked , although the good-ones win at the end but that part of the movie was more of a fantasy than reality)

Consider this statistics – 24 lakh people have a declared income of more than 10lakh per annum (24 lakh in a country of more than 120 crore population- is this not tax-evasion?)-this statistics proves that many had such notion of getting away with their ill-gotten wealth. And the decision tries to bridge the gulf of trust deficit between the ruler and the ruled.

Socio-behavioral Impact

This is probably the hardest one to judge. Nevertheless, data shows that online transactions are on a up-swing and rise of more than 200% is evident of it. So this might be the trigger point for Indian economy to go cash-less or less-cash.

Other impacts and harsities are well-known and requires no elaboration.

Was this good decision badly implemented ?

This is indeed the next line of argument put forth by different sections and it has some merit in it. But given the nature of decision and the level of secrecy it required, those who implemented it were probably well aware of it. After all decision of this nature looses steam when it looses secrecy.

However, it could have been better implemented and there should have been an ad-hoc grievance call center set up across the country, where if an organization denies accepting the old notes or a medical denies the treatment to the public deliberately then a complaint should have been registered immediately and action should be taken immediately. This is a giant task , but the  Panchayats and block-development-offices should have been  ideal nodal point to deal with this kind of matter and some form of authority should have been delegated to them with standards of protocol.

The essence is – the state should have to pull all its strings , so that the basic facilities and services are not denied to the general public which requires adequate planning, co-ordination and data-dissemination in real-time. In short, it could have been better implemented.

The next question is whether the black money will be eradicated ?

There can not be any conclusive evidence of it, simply because it is “black” –  that means no one can certainly say how much of it is “black”. However, this decision, although will curb black-money in short term, what it aims essentially is to raise the cost of money-laundering. That acts as a deterrence. When the cost and pain of money laundering outweighs the benefit of it then money-laundering as an act looses relevance.

Moreover, this years budget and tax decision will have impact on this. If the tax is lowered and tax base in increased then govt. will have all the money it wants to run the state and citizens will be least bothered about paying a marginal tax. In short, the govt. has to make tax percentage attractive enough so that money-laundering looses its relevance.So, that is one of the reason why the decision of this nature can not be judged in short-term as many other decision are interlinked with it.

There was demonetization before, so why this one is historic  ?

It is all about timing. Gandhi would not have been Gandhi if he entered India after 1940 or in 1900. Gandhi is Gandhi because of his timing. Same logic can be applied to this decision. The decision before it had no ecosystem of digital payment to support, that means people had not much of alternative. Hence the past decisions had less impact. But this one is perfectly timed. It is the era of digital economy and there is the ecosystem of digital payment and alternative methods to go cash-less , hence important and historic. This will have impact.

So to sum it up, it was good decision, but could have been better implemented. The benefits and demerits are has both short term and long term connotations. Hence, it is wise to wait a little longer and look at the data to see and judge the impact. And there is the budget announcements to be made as well. So , jumping to a conclusion is neither called for nor wise at this juncture.

We all understand certain parts of it, we all don’t understand certain parts of it and nobody knows the exact statistics. And that’s demonetization in a nut-shell thus far.

And yes, there is a last question that went through everyone’s mind though .

Why 2000 rupees notes ?

At first instance one might think this is a moronic move by the govt., but we urge you to think harder. If you look at the data, most of the high value day-to-day transactions lie between 500 to 1000 rupees and by releasing 2000 notes instead of 1000, govt. is deliberately pushing people to do cashless transactions. It is little harder to do retail shopping with 2000 rupees notes and this is precisely govt. is trying to achieve – to give you the note but make it little inconvenient for us to transact. This is much to do with human psychology and less to do with economy. A slight inconvenience leads us to look for alternatives and govt. is trying to tap into this socio-economic-behavior. We wonder, whether the govt. has hired any behavioral scientist to do this. After all there is a whole new world of behavioral economics as well.

Of course, the above one is our interpretation, but if this is what the govt., is trying to do then it is indeed a well-though out move which looks moronic on the face of it.

Conclusion:-

There are some merit in the decision, however this decision is not aimed at black money only. For the simple reason that  the stock of black wealth held in currency form has been generally estimated at around 5 to 6 per cent of the total black economy.

The stock of black economy does not get affected much and only a small portion of black money is held in currency. Most of it is stashed abroad or held in real estate, gold or foreign currency.  Moreover, black money generation is a continuing process that involves evading taxes, regulations and engaging in corrupt and criminal activities. These cannot be tackled with a one-time measure.

The claim that the demonetisation was aimed at immobilising counterfeit currency also lacks some credibility, because such currency is estimated to value no more than Rs 400 crore, a very small proportion of the value of the high-denomination notes that were in circulation.

There is bound to be arrested growth in economy for short term.

  1. The informal sector is largely cash-dependent and alone accounts for 40 per cent of the GDP and employs 80 per cent of the workforce.
  2. The NBFC are unable to provide loan to small farmers and MSME sectors.
  3. Rupee exchange rates have  increased and there is a downward swirl of stock market.
  4. The state of the economy matters significantly here because that will primarily determine response capacities of each segment, sub-segment and interactions within to influence aggregate outcome.

Some economists put the above arguments to justify that the move was nothing but disastrous. so why did the government go for this move causing much hardship to the common man,the very safety and security of whom the government wants to protect? Did the government take a very myopic step?

A deeper analysis gives a big NO as the answer. Because the sole and underlying motive of the government was TO MOVE TOWARDS A DIGITAL ECONOMY. The subsequent actions of the government bring testimony to this fact:-

a. Discount in digital transactions.
b. Facilitating several methods of digital transaction
c. Circulation of 2000 rupees.

This paradigm shift in the economy will increase the transparency in transactions making the illegal activities difficult and riskier.It will lead to increase in tax base thus reducing tax rate and enhancing the revenue generation.

 


Note :- This analysis is exclusive to UPSCTREE, and if you have any other alternatives, please do let us know and we can debate and deliberate on this. It took us a while to write this , however we have a strong  belief that it will help you enrich your understanding of this issue. And if you think it is enriching, please don’t hesitate to share.


 

 

 

 

 

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    Heat wave is a condition of air temperature which becomes fatal to human body when exposed. Often times, it is defined based on the temperature thresholds over a region in terms of actual temperature or its departure from normal.

    Heat wave is considered if maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 400C or more for Plains and at least 300C or more for Hilly regions.

    a) Based on Departure from Normal
    Heat Wave: Departure from normal is 4.50C to 6.40C
    Severe Heat Wave: Departure from normal is >6.40C

    b) Based on Actual Maximum Temperature

    Heat Wave: When actual maximum temperature ≥ 450C

    Severe Heat Wave: When actual maximum temperature ≥470C

    If above criteria met at least in 2 stations in a Meteorological sub-division for at least two consecutive days and it declared on the second day

     

    It is occurring mainly during March to June and in some rare cases even in July. The peak month of the heat wave over India is May.

    Heat wave generally occurs over plains of northwest India, Central, East & north Peninsular India during March to June.

    It covers Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, parts of Maharashtra & Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana.

    Sometimes it occurs over Tamilnadu & Kerala also.

    Heat waves adversely affect human and animal lives.

    However, maximum temperatures more than 45°C observed mainly over Rajasthan and Vidarbha region in month of May.

     

     

    a. Transportation / Prevalence of hot dry air over a region (There should be a region of warm dry air and appropriate flow pattern for transporting hot air over the region).

    b. Absence of moisture in the upper atmosphere (As the presence of moisture restricts the temperature rise).

    c. The sky should be practically cloudless (To allow maximum insulation over the region).

    d. Large amplitude anti-cyclonic flow over the area.

    Heat waves generally develop over Northwest India and spread gradually eastwards & southwards but not westwards (since the prevailing winds during the season are westerly to northwesterly).

     

    The health impacts of Heat Waves typically involve dehydration, heat cramps, heat exhaustion and/or heat stroke. The signs and symptoms are as follows:
    1. Heat Cramps: Ederna (swelling) and Syncope (Fainting) generally accompanied by fever below 39*C i.e.102*F.
    2. Heat Exhaustion: Fatigue, weakness, dizziness, headache, nausea, vomiting, muscle cramps and sweating.
    3. Heat Stoke: Body temperatures of 40*C i.e. 104*F or more along with delirium, seizures or coma. This is a potential fatal condition.

     


     

    Norman Borlaug and MS Swaminathan in a wheat field in north India in March 1964

    Political independence does not have much meaning without economic independence.

    One of the important indicators of economic independence is self-sufficiency in food grain production.

    The overall food grain scenario in India has undergone a drastic transformation in the last 75 years.

    India was a food-deficit country on the eve of Independence. It had to import foodgrains to feed its people.

    The situation became more acute during the 1960s. The imported food had to be sent to households within the shortest possible time.

    The situation was referred to as ‘ship to mouth’.

    Presently, Food Corporation of India (FCI) godowns are overflowing with food grain stocks and the Union government is unable to ensure remunerative price to the farmers for their produce.

    This transformation, however, was not smooth.

    In the 1960s, it was disgraceful, but unavoidable for the Prime Minister of India to go to foreign countries with a begging bowl.

    To avoid such situations, the government motivated agricultural scientists to make India self-sufficient in food grain production.

    As a result, high-yield varieties (HYV) were developed. The combination of seeds, water and fertiliser gave a boost to food grain production in the country which is generally referred to as the Green Revolution.

    The impact of the Green Revolution, however, was confined to a few areas like Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh in the north and (unified) Andhra Pradesh in the south.

    Most of the remaining areas were deficit in food grain production.

    Therefore the Union government had to procure food grain from surplus states to distribute it among deficit ones.

    At the time, farmers in the surplus states viewed procurement as a tax as they were prevented from selling their surplus foodgrains at high prices in the deficit states.

    As production of food grains increased, there was decentralisation of procurement. State governments were permitted to procure grain to meet their requirement.

    The distribution of food grains was left to the concerned state governments.

    Kerala, for instance, was totally a deficit state and had to adopt a distribution policy which was almost universal in nature.

    Some states adopted a vigorous public distribution system (PDS) policy.

    It is not out of place to narrate an interesting incident regarding food grain distribution in Andhra Pradesh. The Government of Andhra Pradesh in the early 1980s implemented a highly subsidised rice scheme under which poor households were given five kilograms of rice per person per month, subject to a ceiling of 25 kilograms at Rs 2 per kg. The state government required two million tonnes of rice to implement the scheme. But it received only on one million tonne from the Union government.

    The state government had to purchase another million tonne of rice from rice millers in the state at a negotiated price, which was higher than the procurement price offered by the Centre, but lower than the open market price.

    A large number of studies have revealed that many poor households have been excluded from the PDS network, while many undeserving households have managed to get benefits from it.

    Various policy measures have been implemented to streamline PDS. A revamped PDS was introduced in 1992 to make food grain easily accessible to people in tribal and hilly areas, by providing relatively higher subsidies.

    Targeted PDS was launched in 1997 to focus on households below the poverty line (BPL).

    Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) was introduced to cover the poorest of the poor.

    Annapoorna Scheme was introduced in 2001 to distribute 10 kg of food grains free of cost to destitutes above the age of 65 years.

    In 2013, the National Food Security Act (NFSA) was passed by Parliament to expand and legalise the entitlement.

    Conventionally, a card holder has to go to a particular fair price shop (FPS) and that particular shop has to be open when s/he visits it. Stock must be available in the shop. The card holder should also have sufficient time to stand in the queue to purchase his quota. The card holder has to put with rough treatment at the hands of a FPS dealer.

    These problems do not exist once ration cards become smart cards. A card holder can go to any shop which is open and has available stocks. In short, the scheme has become card holder-friendly and curbed the monopoly power of the FPS dealer. Some states other than Chhattisgarh are also trying to introduce such a scheme on an experimental basis.

    More recently, the Government of India has introduced a scheme called ‘One Nation One Ration Card’ which enables migrant labourers to purchase  rations from the place where they reside. In August 2021, it was operational in 34 states and Union territories.

    The intentions of the scheme are good but there are some hurdles in its implementation which need to be addressed. These problems arise on account of variation in:

    • Items provided through FPS
    • The scale of rations
    • The price of items distributed through FPS across states. 

    It is not clear whether a migrant labourer gets items provided in his/her native state or those in the state s/he has migrated to and what prices will s/he be able to purchase them.

    The Centre must learn lessons from the experiences of different countries in order to make PDS sustainable in the long-run.

    For instance, Sri Lanka recently shifted to organic manure from chemical fertiliser without required planning. Consequently, it had to face an acute food shortage due to a shortage of organic manure.

    Some analysts have cautioned against excessive dependence on chemical fertiliser.

    Phosphorus is an important input in the production of chemical fertiliser and about 70-80 per cent of known resources of phosphorus are available only in Morocco.

    There is possibility that Morocco may manipulate the price of phosphorus.

    Providing excessive subsidies and unemployment relief may make people dependent, as in the case of Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

    It is better to teach a person how to catch a fish rather than give free fish to him / her.

    Hence, the government should give the right amount of subsidy to deserving people.

    The government has to increase livestock as in the case of Uruguay to make the food basket broad-based and nutritious. It has to see to it that the organic content in the soil is adequate, in order to make cultivation environmentally-friendly and sustainable in the long-run.

    In short, India has transformed from a food-deficit state to a food-surplus one 75 years after independence. However, the government must adopt environmental-friendly measures to sustain this achievement.

     

    Agroforestry is an intentional integration of trees on farmland.

    Globally, it is practised by 1.2 billion people on 10 per cent area of total agricultural lands (over 1 billion hectares).

    It is widely popular as ‘a low hanging fruit’ due to its multifarious tangible and intangible benefits. 

    The net carbon sequestered in agroforestry is 11.35 tonnes of carbon per ha

    A panacea for global issues such as climate change, land degradation, pollution and food security, agroforestry is highlighted as a key strategy to fulfil several targets:

        1. Kyoto Protocol of 2001
        2. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) as well as REDD+ mechanisms proposed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
        3. United Nations-mandated Sustainable Developmental Goals (SDG)
        4. Paris Agreement 
        5. Carbon Neutrality

     

    In 2017, a New York Times bestseller Project Drawdown published by 200 scientists around the world with a goal of reversing climate change, came up with the most plausible 100 solutions to slash–down greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 

    Out of these 100 solutions, 11 strategies were highlighted under the umbrella of agroforestry such as:-

    1. multistrata agroforestry,
    2. afforestation,
    3. tree intercropping,
    4. biomass production,
    5. regenerative agriculture,
    6. conservation agriculture,
    7. farmland restoration,
    8. silvopasture,
    9. tropical-staple tree,
    10. intercropping,
    11. bamboo and indigenous tree–based land management.

     

    Nowadays, tree-based farming in India is considered a silver bullet to cure all issues.

    It was promoted under the Green India mission of 2001, six out of eight missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and National Agroforestry and Bamboo Mission (NABM), 2017 to bring a third of the geographical area under tree cover and offsetting GHG emissions. 

    These long-term attempts by the Government of India have helped enhance the agroforestry area to 13.75 million hectares. 

    The net carbon sequestered in agroforestry is 11.35 tonnes of carbon per ha and carbon sequestration potential is 0.35 tonnes of carbon per ha per year at the country level, according to the Central Agroforestry Research Institute, Jhansi.

    India will reduce an additional 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 by increasing tree cover. This extra tree cover could be achieved through agroforestry systems because of their ability to withstand minimum inputs under extreme situations. 

    Here are some examples which portray the role of agroforestry in achieving at least nine out of the 17 SDGs through sustainable food production, ecosystem services and economic benefits: 

    SDG 1 — No Poverty: Almost 736 million people still live in extreme poverty. Diversification through integrating trees in agriculture unlocks the treasure to provide multifunctional benefits.

    Studies carried out in 2003 in the arid regions of India reported a 10-15 per cent increase in crop yield with Prosopis cineraria (khejari). Adoption of agroforestry increases income & production by reducing the cost of input & production.  

     

    SDG 2 — Zero hunger: Tree-based systems provide food and monetary returns. Traditional agroforestry systems like Prosopis cineraria and Madhuca longifolia (Mahua) provide edible returns during drought years known as “lifeline to the poor people”. 

    Studies showed that 26-50 per cent of households involved in tree products collection and selling act as a coping strategy to deal with hunger.

    SDG 3 — Good health and well-being: Human wellbeing and health are depicted through the extent of healthy ecosystems and services they provide.

    Agroforestry contributes increased access to diverse nutritious food, supply of medicine, clean air and reduces heat stress.

    Vegetative buffers can filter airstreams of particulates by removing dust, gas, microbial constituents and heavy metals. 

    SDG 5 — Gender equality: Throughout the world around 3 billion people depend on firewood for cooking.

    In this, women are the main collectors and it brings drudgery and health issues.

    A study from India stated that almost 374 hours per year are spent by women for collection of firewood. Growing trees nearby provides easy access to firewood and diverts time to productive purposes. 

    SDG 6 — Clean Water and Sanitation: Water is probably the most vital resource for our survival. The inherent capacity of trees offers hydrological regulation as evapotranspiration recharges atmospheric moisture for rainfall; enhanced soil infiltration recharges groundwater; obstructs sediment flow; rainwater filtration by accumulation of heavy metals.

    An extensive study in 35 nations published in 2017 concluded that 30 per cent of tree cover in watersheds resulted in improved sanitisation and reduced diarrheal disease.  

    SDG 7 — Affordable & Clean Energy: Wood fuels are the only source of energy to billions of poverty-stricken people.

    Though trees are substitutes of natural forests, modern technologies in the form of biofuels, ethanol, electricity generation and dendro-biomass sources are truly affordable and clean.

    Ideal agroforestry models possess fast-growing, high coppicing, higher calorific value and short rotation (2-3 years) characteristics and provide biomass of 200-400 tonnes per ha.

    SDG 12 — Responsible consumption and production: The production of agricultural and wood-based commodities on a sustainable basis without depleting natural resources and as low as external inputs (chemical fertilisers and pesticides) to reduce the ecological footprints.

    SDG 13 — Climate action: Globally, agricultural production accounts for up to 24 per cent of GHG emissions from around 22.2 million square km of agricultural area, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. 

    A 2016 study depicted that conversion of agricultural land to agroforestry sequesters about 27.2± 13.5 tonnes CO2 equivalent per ha per year after establishment of systems. 

    Trees on farmland mitigate 109.34 million tonnes CO2 equivalent annually from 15.31 million ha, according to a 2017 report. This may offset a third of the total GHG emissions from the agriculture sector of India.

    SDG 15 — Life on Land: Agroforestry ‘mimics the forest ecosystem’ to contribute conservation of flora and faunas, creating corridors, buffers to existing reserves and multi-functional landscapes.

    Delivery of ecosystem services of trees regulates life on land. A one-hectare area of homegardens in Kerala was found to have 992 trees from 66 species belonging to 31 families, a recent study showed. 

    The report of the World Agroforestry Centre highlighted those 22 countries that have registered agroforestry as a key strategy in achieving their unconditional national contributions.

    Recently, the  Government of India has allocated significant financial support for promotion of agroforestry at grassroot level to make the Indian economy as carbon neutral. This makes agroforestry a low-hanging fruit to achieve the global goals.

    A disaster is a result of natural or man-made causes that leads to sudden disruption of normal life, causing severe damage to life and property to an extent that available social and economic protection mechanisms are inadequate to cope.

    The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) of the United Nations (U.N.) defines a hazard as “a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.”

    Disasters are classified as per origin, into natural and man-made disasters. As per severity, disasters are classified as minor or major (in impact). However, such classifications are more academic than real.

    High Powered Committee (HPC) was constituted in August 1999 under the chairmanship of J.C.Pant. The mandate of the HPC was to prepare comprehensive model plans for disaster management at the national, state and district levels.

    This was the first attempt in India towards a systematic comprehensive and holistic look at all disasters.

    Thirty odd disasters have been identified by the HPC, which were grouped into the following five categories, based on generic considerations:-

    Water and Climate Related:-

    1. Floods
    2. Cyclones
    3. Tornadoes and hurricanes (cyclones)
    4. Hailstorms
    5. Cloudburst
    6. Heat wave and cold wave
    7. Snow avalanches
    8. Droughts
    9. Sea erosion
    10. Thunder/ lightning

    Geological:-

    1. Landslides and mudflows
    2. Earthquakes
    3. Large fires
    4. Dam failures and dam bursts
    5. Mine fires

    Biological:-

    1. Epidemics
    2. Pest attacks
    3. Cattle epidemics
    4. Food poisoning

    Chemical, industrial and nuclear:-

    1. Chemical and Industrial disasters
    2. Nuclear

    Accidental:-

    1. Forest fires
    2. Urban fires
    3. Mine flooding
    4. Oil Spill
    5. Major building collapse
    6. Serial bomb blasts
    7. Festival related disasters
    8. Electrical disasters and fires
    9. Air, road, and rail accidents
    10. Boat capsizing
    11. Village fire

    India’s Key Vulnerabilities as articulated in the Tenth Plan, (2002-07) are as follows:

    1. Coastal States, particularly on the East Coast and Gujarat are vulnerable to cyclones.
    2. 4 crore hectare landmass is vulnerable to floods
    3. 68 per cent of net sown area is vulnerable to droughts
    4. 55 per cent of total area is in seismic zones III- V, hence vulnerable to earthquakes
    5. Sub- Himalayan sector and Western Ghats are vulnerable to landslides.

    Vulnerability is defined as:-

    “the extent to which a community, structure, service, or geographic area is likely to be damaged or disrupted by the impact of particular hazard, on account of their nature, construction and proximity to hazardous terrain or a disaster prone area”.

    The concept of vulnerability therefore implies a measure of risk combined with the level of social and economic ability to cope with the resulting event in order to resist major disruption or loss.

    Example:- The 1993 Marathwada earthquake in India left over 10,000 dead and destroyed houses and other properties of 200,000 households. However, the technically much more powerful Los Angeles earthquake of 1971 (taken as a benchmark in America in any debate on the much-apprehended seismic vulnerability of California) left over 55 dead.

    Physical Vulnerability:-

    Physical vulnerability relates to the physical location of people, their proximity to the hazard zone and standards of safety maintained to counter the effects.

    The Indian subcontinent can be primarily divided into three geophysical regions with regard to vulnerability, broadly, as, the Himalayas, the Plains and the Coastal areas.

    Socio-economic Vulnerability:-

    The degree to which a population is affected by a calamity will not purely lie in the physical components of vulnerability but in contextual, relating to the prevailing social and economic conditions and its consequential effects on human activities within a given society.

     

     

    Global Warming & Climate Change:-

    Global warming is going to make other small local environmental issues seemingly insignificant, because it has the capacity to completely change the face of the Earth. Global warming is leading to shrinking glaciers and rising sea levels. Along with floods, India also suffers acute water shortages.

    The steady shrinking of the Himalayan glaciers means the entire water system is being disrupted; global warming will cause even greater extremes. Impacts of El Nino and La Nina have increasingly led to disastrous impacts across the globe.

    Scientifically, it is proven that the Himalayan glaciers are shrinking, and in the next fifty to sixty years they would virtually run out of producing the water levels that we are seeing now.

    This will cut down drastically the water available downstream, and in agricultural economies like the plains of Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar, which are poor places to begin with. That, as one may realise, would cause tremendous social upheaval.

    Urban Risks:-

    India is experiencing massive and rapid urbanisation. The population of cities in India is doubling in a period ranging just two decades according to the trends in the recent past.

    It is estimated that by 2025, the urban component, which was only 25.7 per cent (1991) will be more than 50 per cent.

    Urbanisation is increasing the risks at unprecedented levels; communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable, since high-density areas with poorly built and maintained infrastructure are subjected to natural hazards, environmental degradation, fires, flooding and earthquake.

    Urbanisation dramatically increases vulnerability, whereby communities are forced to squat on environmentally unstable areas such as steep hillsides prone to landslide, by the side of rivers that regularly flood, or on poor quality ground, causing building collapse.

    Most prominent amongst the disasters striking urban settlements frequently are, floods and fire, with incidences of earthquakes, landslides, droughts and cyclones. Of these, floods are more devastating due to their widespread and periodic impact.

    Example: The 2005 floods of Maharashtra bear testimony to this. Heavy flooding caused the sewage system to overflow, which contaminated water lines. On August 11, the state government declared an epidemic of leptospirosis in Mumbai and its outskirts.

    Developmental activities:-

    Developmental activities compound the damaging effects of natural calamities. The floods in Rohtak (Haryana) in 1995 are an appropriate example of this. Even months after the floodwaters had receded; large parts of the town were still submerged.

    Damage had not accrued due to floods, but due to water-logging which had resulted due to peculiar topography and poor land use planning.

    Disasters have come to stay in the forms of recurring droughts in Orissa, the desertification of swaths of Gujarat and Rajasthan, where economic depredations continuously impact on already fragile ecologies and environmental degradation in the upstream areas of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

    Floods in the plains are taking an increasing toll of life, environment, and property, amplified by a huge population pressure.

    The unrestricted felling of forests, serious damage to mountain ecology, overuse of groundwater and changing patterns of cultivation precipitate recurring floods and droughts.

    When forests are destroyed, rainwater runs off causing floods and diminishing the recharging of groundwater.

    The spate of landslides in the Himalayas in recent years can be directly traced to the rampant deforestation and network of roads that have been indiscriminately laid in the name of development.

    Destruction of mangroves and coral reefs has increased the vulnerability of coastal areas to hazards, such as storm surges and cyclones.

    Commercialisation of coastal areas, particularly for tourism has increased unplanned development in these areas, which has increased disaster potential, as was demonstrated during the Tsunami in December 2004.

    Environmental Stresses:- " Delhi-Case Study"

    Every ninth student in Delhi’s schools suffers from Asthma. Delhi is the world’s fourth most polluted city.

    Each year, poor environmental conditions in the city’s informal areas lead to epidemics.

    Delhi has one of the highest road accident fatality ratios in the world. In many ways, Delhi reflects the sad state of urban centers within India that are exposed to risks, which are misconstrued and almost never taken into consideration for urban governance.

    The main difference between modernism and postmodernism is that modernism is characterized by the radical break from the traditional forms of urban architecture whereas postmodernism is characterized by the self-conscious use of earlier styles and conventions.

    Illustration of Disaster Cycle through Case Study:-

    The processes covered by the disaster cycle can be illustrated through the case of the Gujarat Earthquake of 26 January 2001. The devastating earthquake killed thousands of people and destroyed hundreds of thousands of houses and other buildings.

    The State Government as well as the National Government immediately mounted a largescale relief operation. The help of the Armed Forces was also taken.

    Hundreds of NGOs from within the region and other parts of the country as well as from other countries of the world came to Gujarat with relief materials and personnel to help in the relief operations.

    Relief camps were set up, food was distributed, mobile hospitals worked round the clock to help the injured; clothing, beddings, tents, and other commodities were distributed to the affected people over the next few weeks.

    By the summer of 2001, work started on long-term recovery. House reconstruction programmes were launched, community buildings were reconstructed, and damaged infrastructure was repaired and reconstructed.

    Livelihood programmes were launched for economic rehabilitation of the affected people.

    In about two year’s time the state had bounced back and many of the reconstruction projects had taken the form of developmental programmes aiming to deliver even better infrastructure than what existed before the earthquake.

    Good road networks, water distribution networks, communication networks, new schools, community buildings, health and education programmes, all worked towards developing the region.

    The government as well as the NGOs laid significant emphasis on safe development practices. The buildings being constructed were of earthquake resistant designs.

    Older buildings that had survived the earthquake were retrofitted in large numbers to strengthen them and to make them resistant to future earthquakes. Mason and engineer training programmes were carried out at a large scale to ensure that all future construction in the State is disaster resistant.

    This case study shows how there was a disaster event during the earthquake, followed by immediate response and relief, then by recovery including rehabilitation and retrofitting, then by developmental processes.

    The development phase included mitigation activities, and finally preparedness actions to face future disasters.

    Then disaster struck again, but the impact was less than what it could have been, primarily due to better mitigation and preparedness efforts.

    Looking at the relationship between disasters and development one can identify ‘four’ different dimensions to this relation:

    1) Disasters can set back development

    2) Disasters can provide development opportunities

    3) Development can increase vulnerability and

    4) Development can reduce vulnerability

    The whole relationship between disaster and development depends on the development choice made by the individual, community and the nation who implement the development programmes.

     

    The tendency till now has been mostly to associate disasters with negativities. We need to broaden our vision and work on the positive aspects associated with disasters as reflected below:

    1)Evolution of Disaster Management in India

    Disaster management in India has evolved from an activity-based reactive setup to a proactive institutionalized structure; from single faculty domain to a multi-stakeholder setup; and from a relief-based approach to a ‘multi-dimensional pro-active holistic approach for reducing risk’.

    Over the past century, the disaster management in India has undergone substantive changes in its composition, nature and policy.

    2)Emergence of Institutional Arrangement in India-

    A permanent and institutionalised setup began in the decade of 1990s with set up of a disaster management cell under the Ministry of Agriculture, following the declaration of the decade of 1990 as the ‘International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction’ (IDNDR) by the UN General Assembly.

    Consequently, the disaster management division was shifted under the Ministry of Home Affairs in 2002

    3)Disaster Management Framework:-

    Shifting from relief and response mode, disaster management in India started to address the
    issues of early warning systems, forecasting and monitoring setup for various weather related
    hazards.

    dis frame

    National Level Institutions:-National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA):-

    The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) was initially constituted on May 30, 2005 under the Chairmanship of Prime Minister vide an executive order.

    SDMA (State Level, DDMA(District Level) also present.

    National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC)

    Legal Framework For Disaster Management :-

    Disaster frme legalDMD- Disaster management Dept.

    NIDM- National Institute of Disaster Management

    NDRF – National Disaster Response Fund

    Cabinet Committee on Disaster Management-

    ncmc

    Location of NDRF Battallions(National Disaster Response Force):-

    bnsCBRN- Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear

    Policy and response to Climate Change :-

    1)National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)-

    National Action Plan on Climate Change identified Eight missions.
    • National Solar Mission
    • National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
    • National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
    • National Mission for Sustaining The Himalayan Ecosystem
    • National Water Mission
    • National Mission for Green India
    • National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
    • National Mission for Strategic Knowledge on Climate Change

    2)National Policy on Disaster Management (NPDM),2009-

    The policy envisages a safe and disaster resilient India by developing a holistic, proactive, multi-disaster oriented and technologydriven strategy through a culture of prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response. The policy covers all aspects of disaster management including institutional and legal arrangements,financial arrangements, disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness, techno-legal regime, response, relief and rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery, capacity development, knowledge management, research and development. It focuses on the areas where action is needed and the institutional mechanism through which such action can be channelised.

    Prevention and Mitigation Projects:-

    • Mainstreaming of Disaster Risk Reduction in Developmental Strategy-Prevention and mitigation contribute to lasting improvement in safety and should beintegrated in the disaster management. The Government of India has adopted mitigation and prevention as essential components of their development strategy.
    • Mainstreaming of National Plan and its Sub-Plan
    • National Disaster Mitigation Fund
    • National Earthquake Risk Mitigation Project (NERMP)
      • National Building Code (NBC):- Earthquake resistant buildings
    • National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP)
      • Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (ICZMP)-The objective of the project is to assist GoI in building the national capacity for implementation of a comprehensive coastal management approach in the country and piloting the integrated coastal zone management approach in states of Gujarat, Orissa and West Bengal.
    • National Flood Risk Mitigation Project (NFRMP)
    • National Project for Integrated Drought Monitoring & Management
    • National Vector Borne Diseases Control Programme (NVBDCP)- key programme
      for prevention/control of outbreaks/epidemics of malaria, dengue, chikungunya etc., vaccines administered to reduce the morbidity and mortality due to diseases like measles, diphtheria, pertussis, poliomyelitis etc. Two key measures to prevent/control epidemics of water-borne diseases like cholera, viral hepatitis etc. include making available safe water and ensuring personal and domestic hygienic practices are adopted.

    Early Warning Nodal Agencies:-

    dis nodal

    Post Disaster Management :-Post disaster management responses are created according to the disaster and location. The principles being – Faster Recovery, Resilient Reconstruction and proper Rehabilitation.

    Capacity Development:-

    Components of capacity development includes :-

    • Training
    • Education
    • Research
    • Awareness

    National Institute for Capacity Development being – National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM)

    International Cooperation-

    1. Hyogo Framework of Action- The Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) 2005-2015 was adopted to work globally towards sustainable reduction of disaster losses in lives and in the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.
    2. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)-In order to build the resilience of nations and communities to disasters through the implementation of the HFA , the UNISDR strives to catalyze, facilitate and mobilise the
      commitment and resources of national, regional and international stakeholders of the ISDR
      system.
    3. United Nation Disaster Management Team (UNDMT) –

       

      1. To ensure a prompt, effective and concerted country-level support to a governmental
        response in the event of a disaster, at the central, state and sub-state levels,
      2. To coordinate UN assistance to the government with respect to long term recovery, disaster mitigation and preparedness.
      3. To coordinate all disaster-related activities, technical advice and material assistance provided by UN agencies, as well as to take steps for optimal utilisation of resources by UN agencies.
    4. Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR):-
      1. GFDRR was set up in September 2006 jointly by the World Bank, donor partners (21countries and four international organisations), and key stakeholders of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR). It is a long-term global partnership under the ISDR system established to develop and implement the HFA through a coordinated programme for reversing the trend in disaster losses by 2015.
      2. Its mission is to mainstream disaster reduction and climate change adaptation in a country’s development strategies to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards.
    5. ASEAN Region Forum (ARF)
    6. Asian Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC)
    7. SAARC Disaster Management Centre (SDMC)
    8. Program for Enhancement of Emergency Response (PEER):-The Program for Enhancement of Emergency Response (PEER) is a regional training programme initiated in 1998 by the United States Agency for International Development’s, Office of U.S Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) to strengthen disaster response capacities in Asia.

    Way Forward:-

    Principles and Steps:-

    • Policy guidelines at the macro level that would inform and guide the preparation and
      implementation of disaster management and development plans across sectors
    • Building in a culture of preparedness and mitigation
    • Operational guidelines of integrating disaster management practices into development, and
      specific developmental schemes for prevention and mitigation of disasters
    • Having robust early warning systems coupled with effective response plans at district, state
      and national levels
    • Building capacity of all stakeholders
    • Involving the community, NGOs, CSOs and the media at all stages of DM
    • Addressing gender issues in disaster management planning and developing a strategy for
      inclusive approach addressing the disadvantaged sections of the society towards disaster risk reduction.
    • Addressing climate risk management through adaptation and mitigation
    • Micro disaster Insurance
    • Flood Proofing
    • Building Codes and Enforcement
    • Housing Design and Finance
    • Road and Infrastructure