A closer look at the economy at large throws up numbers which suggest that while there may be a slowdown in employment generation, there is no job crisis at the moment.
Lets see what the statistics say-
-In 2011, there were 273 million agriculture workers. The total size of the workforce was about 481 million. Essentially, about 56 per cent of our workforce is in agriculture. While this is coming down, it is likely that some 2-3 million new workers enter the agriculture workforce every year (extrapolated from previous growth numbers).
-Medium and small scale enterprises (MSMEs) alone employ 81 million people (data is old). In 2014-15 alone, the Prime Minister’s Employment Generation Programme (PMEGP) alone is said to have generated 3,57,000 new jobs.
-The number that mainstream media quotes from is the 8 sectors that together employ only 20 million people. These are from units which have more than 10 employees and cover the following sectors – manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, restaurant, IT/BPO, education and healthcare. The number excludes household workers, financial services, mining and of course MSMEs. In sum the headline survey quoted by everybody covers only 4 per cent of India’s workforce.
-If one subtracts agriculture workers and large companies (those covered in the survey), there are about 188 milion workers. Assuming 1.5 per cent growth of employment in these segments (larger companies are at 1 per cent), it adds upto about 3 million workers.
-When you add up all the above, you arrive at a net employment figure of 6 million a year. Add retirement replacements and you can add 2.5 million more workers. That comes to about 8.5 million. That leaves you with 4.5 million unemployed every year or about 18 per cent given that only 13 million are looking for a job every year (low workforce participation in India).
-Now, over the last 10 years, average household wealth has gone up substantially. For example in 2010, the total rural deposits was about Rs 4,22,000 crores. In 6 years this has tripled to Rs 11,46,091 crores. The number of households meanwhile may have gone up by only 15 per cent. This translates to an average household deposit of about Rs 24,000 going upto to Rs 57,000 in just 6 years (back of paper calculations). The cost of land and other wealth too has gone up quite a bit. This increase in cash wealth in rural India alone suggests that households have much higher capabilities in supporting unemployed youth than before.
-In 2017-18, India will spend about Rs 1,50,000 crores on subsidized food. This amount was about Rs 60000 crores in 2010. This translates to Rs 25,000 per poor household per annum. So, if you add increased wealth at one level and access to low cost food at another level, households are much better protected than ever before.
Some of the numbers above are not perfect but it helps to make the larger argument that the headline statistics cover only 4 per cent of workers, the rest 96 per cent of the employers are likely absorbing large number of employees. Also notable is the fact that 2-3 million people retire every year and their replacements are not counted anywhere. Add more wealth and access to inexpensive food and in sum total you have a problem that is less pronounced than before.
It is not to suggest that there is no slowdown in employment, this is only to say why there is no song and dance about it amongst general public at this moment.
One issue in particular is thorny though, the large number of engineering graduates who are likely to be unemployed over the next two years. Meanwhile, the government can only hope that the economic recovery is complete and many more jobs are created to hire this bulging group of unemployed Indians. Nevertheless the trouble is not far away.
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- In the Large States category (overall), Chhattisgarh ranks 1st, followed by Odisha and Telangana, whereas, towards the bottom are Maharashtra at 16th, Assam at 17th and Gujarat at 18th. Gujarat is one State that has seen startling performance ranking 5th in the PAI 2021 Index outperforming traditionally good performing States like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, but ranks last in terms of Delta
- In the Small States category (overall), Nagaland tops, followed by Mizoram and Tripura. Towards the tail end of the overall Delta ranking is Uttarakhand (9th), Arunachal Pradesh (10th) and Meghalaya (11th). Nagaland despite being a poor performer in the PAI 2021 Index has come out to be the top performer in Delta, similarly, Mizoram’s performance in Delta is also reflected in it’s ranking in the PAI 2021 Index
- In terms of Equity, in the Large States category, Chhattisgarh has the best Delta rate on Equity indicators, this is also reflected in the performance of Chhattisgarh in the Equity Pillar where it ranks 4th. Following Chhattisgarh is Odisha ranking 2nd in Delta-Equity ranking, but ranks 17th in the Equity Pillar of PAI 2021. Telangana ranks 3rd in Delta-Equity ranking even though it is not a top performer in this Pillar in the overall PAI 2021 Index. Jharkhand (16th), Uttar Pradesh (17th) and Assam (18th) rank at the bottom with Uttar Pradesh’s performance in line with the PAI 2021 Index
- Odisha and Nagaland have shown the best year-on-year improvement under 12 Key Development indicators.
- In the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Goa and Tamil Nadu and, the bottom three performers are Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar.
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers were Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Mizoram; and, the bottom three performers are Manipur, Assam and Meghalaya.
- Among the 60:40 division States, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are the top three performers and Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Delhi appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland; and, the bottom three performers are Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh
- Among the 60:40 division States, Goa, West Bengal and Delhi appear as the top three performers and Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar appear as the bottom three performers.
- Among the 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh and Tripura were the top three performers and Jammu & Kashmir, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh were the bottom three performers
- West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu were the top three States amongst the 60:40 division States; while Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan appeared as the bottom three performers
- In the case of 90:10 division States, Mizoram, Assam and Tripura were the top three performers and Nagaland, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand featured as the bottom three
- Among the 60:40 division States, the top three performers are Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and the bottom three performers are Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Goa
- In the 90:10 division States, the top three performers are Mizoram, Sikkim and Nagaland and the bottom three performers are Manipur and Assam
In a diverse country like India, where each State is socially, culturally, economically, and politically distinct, measuring Governance becomes increasingly tricky. The Public Affairs Index (PAI 2021) is a scientifically rigorous, data-based framework that measures the quality of governance at the Sub-national level and ranks the States and Union Territories (UTs) of India on a Composite Index (CI).
States are classified into two categories – Large and Small – using population as the criteria.
In PAI 2021, PAC defined three significant pillars that embody Governance – Growth, Equity, and Sustainability. Each of the three Pillars is circumscribed by five governance praxis Themes.
The themes include – Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
At the bottom of the pyramid, 43 component indicators are mapped to 14 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are relevant to the States and UTs.
This forms the foundation of the conceptual framework of PAI 2021. The choice of the 43 indicators that go into the calculation of the CI were dictated by the objective of uncovering the complexity and multidimensional character of development governance
The Equity Principle
The Equity Pillar of the PAI 2021 Index analyses the inclusiveness impact at the Sub-national level in the country; inclusiveness in terms of the welfare of a society that depends primarily on establishing that all people feel that they have a say in the governance and are not excluded from the mainstream policy framework.
This requires all individuals and communities, but particularly the most vulnerable, to have an opportunity to improve or maintain their wellbeing. This chapter of PAI 2021 reflects the performance of States and UTs during the pandemic and questions the governance infrastructure in the country, analysing the effectiveness of schemes and the general livelihood of the people in terms of Equity.
Growth and its Discontents
Growth in its multidimensional form encompasses the essence of access to and the availability and optimal utilisation of resources. By resources, PAI 2021 refer to human resources, infrastructure and the budgetary allocations. Capacity building of an economy cannot take place if all the key players of growth do not drive development. The multiplier effects of better health care, improved educational outcomes, increased capital accumulation and lower unemployment levels contribute magnificently in the growth and development of the States.
The Pursuit Of Sustainability
The Sustainability Pillar analyses the access to and usage of resources that has an impact on environment, economy and humankind. The Pillar subsumes two themes and uses seven indicators to measure the effectiveness of government efforts with regards to Sustainability.
The Curious Case Of The Delta
The Delta Analysis presents the results on the State performance on year-on-year improvement. The rankings are measured as the Delta value over the last five to 10 years of data available for 12 Key Development Indicators (KDI). In PAI 2021, 12 indicators across the three Pillars of Equity (five indicators), Growth (five indicators) and Sustainability (two indicators). These KDIs are the outcome indicators crucial to assess Human Development. The Performance in the Delta Analysis is then compared to the Overall PAI 2021 Index.
Key Findings:-
In the Scheme of Things
The Scheme Analysis adds an additional dimension to ranking of the States on their governance. It attempts to complement the Governance Model by trying to understand the developmental activities undertaken by State Governments in the form of schemes. It also tries to understand whether better performance of States in schemes reflect in better governance.
The Centrally Sponsored schemes that were analysed are National Health Mission (NHM), Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services scheme (ICDS), Mahatma Gandh National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan (SmSA) and MidDay Meal Scheme (MDMS).
National Health Mission (NHM)
INTEGRATED CHILD DEVELOPMENT SERVICES (ICDS)
MID- DAY MEAL SCHEME (MDMS)
SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN (SMSA)
MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEME (MGNREGS)