Authored by: Umakant Sir (Founder, Mentor and Civil Servant)
Who does not like a good conspiracy?
We all have our own little conspiracy theories that we believe in contradiction to facts even. And that is understandable because that is a pure “Human Psychological Error”. Psychologists call it “cognitive dissonance” (When the facts are in contrast to the things we believe in, yet we still believe in them).
But the Bangladesh saga, seems like a plot from a movie altogether. A Prime Minister as strong as Sheikh Hasina was given only 45 mins to wind up and run?
That is enough ingredient for us to cook up a conspiracy biriyani. Nonetheless, let me feed you with some more questions that may make you smell the “conspiracy biryani”: –
Question no. 1:
If you have read history, read your history well, you know that every revolution/protest has a shelf-life. Gandhiji knew it well than others. Revolution has its fatigue.
But….
The events (Protests) in Bangladesh unfolded in the Monsoon Months. And, they say “when it rains in Bangladesh, it pours in Bangaladesh”; so how did the students manage to protest for months and mount pressure on the government in the monsoon months.
How long can a protester stand in the “Bangaladeshi rain” and shout?
Because it unfolded in the monsoon months, makes you wonder: Was there a foreign hand in all of this?
Also, because, sustaining a protest of this size requires logistics and supply chain or more bluntly it requires a “good deal of Money”. Thus, the next question…Who financed it?
Question no. 2:
Every revolution requires financing…that’s how it has always been. Take any lasting revolution from your history books and you will see a financier.
Who financed it then? Who gave the food, fodder and shelter to the protesters?
That makes one wonder of the “invisible foreign hand”.
Question no. 3:
Just before the protest, Sheikh Hasina made a trip to China, however the trip was cut-short and when she returned to Bangladesh, she gave a statement that was in favour of India.
That makes one wonder, Is there a “Chinese Hand” or “China-Pakistan Conspiracy”, given the fact that a Bangladesh under the sphere of influence of Chinese can make Indian policy makers “Paranoid” perpetually.
We have a border with Bangaladesh i.e. running upto 4096 kms and the worrisome part is: – it is a porous border. There is no natural or geographical barrier between Indo-Bangladesh border…. which makes India extremely vulnerable. Guarding a border that runs for more than 4000 km and runs through agricultural fields, river and wetlands is extremely difficult.
In that situation, China-Pakistan will be very happy, and India will be very anxious. Of Course, Chinese will prefer an anxious India rather than an assertive India.
Thus, the smell of conspiracy.
Question no. 4:
There has been reports that it might be a USA conspiracy. In this regard we can consider couple of things: –
USA through its CIA had funded revolution and toppled governments. Look at South America, Look at other parts of the world. USA had done it in the past and done it multiple times across multiple continents. So, it is hardly a surprise to anyone.
But this begs the question, why USA will topple a government in Bangladesh ? What’s the catch ? We can understand the Chinese-Pakistan angle but USA…Why?
Well, in that regard, we can consider the following: –
- USA does not see Russia as its biggest threat anymore. As long as Russia posed a threat, USA was in Afghanistan.
- The challenger to USA’s hegemony is China and to counter China, what could be a better base than Bangladesh.
- If USA had its sway over Bangladesh
- India will lose some of its “strategic autonomy” and may be pushed towards the “USA Camp”.
- China will be anxious perpetually.
In that sense, from USA’s point of view, “Bangaldesh can be the new Afghanistan“. A base to fight the Chinese threat and contain it.
All of the above, definitely makes one wonder of the “supposedly external hand” in the Bangladesh protests.
Let’s consider the counter, that it was an internal rebellion and there was no foreign hand.
Let’s go back to the Revolution of 1857 or If you give a closer look at ” Arab Spring”. What we learn from these episodes is that :-
- Every revolution has a “trigger” (In case of 1857 revolution, it was arrest of Mangal Pandey and the “cartridge issue” and in case of Arab spring it was self-immolation of a vegetable vendor”)
- Every revolution has a “deep seeded anger” against the status-quo that has been burning slowing for years, even decades.
- Every revolution has a social, political and economic cause behind it.
If people’s social mobility is curtailed, if there is widespread unemployment and if the political rights of the people are suppressed (real or perceived), it gives rise to revolution.
And in this context, if one looks at Bangladesh, it appears that the protest was natural and organic one. It started as simple protest against the reservation quota in jobs and catapulted into an anti-government protest.
Bangaladesh did well economically under Sheikh Hasina’s rule. The “Textile sector boom” created jobs for millions. However, recently the textile sector became stagnant. The Political rights of ‘people and the opposition’ perceived as to be undermined. Which seems to have created the “deep seeded anger” running over a decade. The “reservation protest” was the “trigger” and death of students at the hands of “state” catapulted it as “anti-government” protest.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, one can say that the protest in Bangladesh was organic one in the beginning, but eventually the role of “external actor” cannot be discredited as well. Afterall geopolitics is a “ruthless” game. And “some foreign actors” may have been tempted to influence and build a narrative by financing and supporting the revolution.
But as we learn from history, strong empires fall mostly because of internal weakness, external factors usually accentuate it. And seems to be the case with what happened in Bangladesh. We learn more about it as the situation unfolds.
*Disclaimer: The above writing is just an analysis, and the opinion is based on Newspaper articles and editorials etc. This must not be construed as “Fact”.
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In a diverse country like India, where each State is socially, culturally, economically, and politically distinct, measuring Governance becomes increasingly tricky. The Public Affairs Index (PAI 2021) is a scientifically rigorous, data-based framework that measures the quality of governance at the Sub-national level and ranks the States and Union Territories (UTs) of India on a Composite Index (CI).
States are classified into two categories – Large and Small – using population as the criteria.
In PAI 2021, PAC defined three significant pillars that embody Governance – Growth, Equity, and Sustainability. Each of the three Pillars is circumscribed by five governance praxis Themes.
The themes include – Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
At the bottom of the pyramid, 43 component indicators are mapped to 14 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are relevant to the States and UTs.
This forms the foundation of the conceptual framework of PAI 2021. The choice of the 43 indicators that go into the calculation of the CI were dictated by the objective of uncovering the complexity and multidimensional character of development governance
The Equity Principle
The Equity Pillar of the PAI 2021 Index analyses the inclusiveness impact at the Sub-national level in the country; inclusiveness in terms of the welfare of a society that depends primarily on establishing that all people feel that they have a say in the governance and are not excluded from the mainstream policy framework.
This requires all individuals and communities, but particularly the most vulnerable, to have an opportunity to improve or maintain their wellbeing. This chapter of PAI 2021 reflects the performance of States and UTs during the pandemic and questions the governance infrastructure in the country, analysing the effectiveness of schemes and the general livelihood of the people in terms of Equity.
Growth and its Discontents
Growth in its multidimensional form encompasses the essence of access to and the availability and optimal utilisation of resources. By resources, PAI 2021 refer to human resources, infrastructure and the budgetary allocations. Capacity building of an economy cannot take place if all the key players of growth do not drive development. The multiplier effects of better health care, improved educational outcomes, increased capital accumulation and lower unemployment levels contribute magnificently in the growth and development of the States.
The Pursuit Of Sustainability
The Sustainability Pillar analyses the access to and usage of resources that has an impact on environment, economy and humankind. The Pillar subsumes two themes and uses seven indicators to measure the effectiveness of government efforts with regards to Sustainability.
The Curious Case Of The Delta
The Delta Analysis presents the results on the State performance on year-on-year improvement. The rankings are measured as the Delta value over the last five to 10 years of data available for 12 Key Development Indicators (KDI). In PAI 2021, 12 indicators across the three Pillars of Equity (five indicators), Growth (five indicators) and Sustainability (two indicators). These KDIs are the outcome indicators crucial to assess Human Development. The Performance in the Delta Analysis is then compared to the Overall PAI 2021 Index.
Key Findings:-
In the Scheme of Things
The Scheme Analysis adds an additional dimension to ranking of the States on their governance. It attempts to complement the Governance Model by trying to understand the developmental activities undertaken by State Governments in the form of schemes. It also tries to understand whether better performance of States in schemes reflect in better governance.
The Centrally Sponsored schemes that were analysed are National Health Mission (NHM), Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services scheme (ICDS), Mahatma Gandh National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan (SmSA) and MidDay Meal Scheme (MDMS).
National Health Mission (NHM)
INTEGRATED CHILD DEVELOPMENT SERVICES (ICDS)
MID- DAY MEAL SCHEME (MDMS)
SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN (SMSA)
MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEME (MGNREGS)