Written by : Umakant Sir (Ex-OAS)
Gen Z toppled governments in Nepal and Bangladesh. Many people now ask if India is next. The honest answer is no. It will not even create a dent here.
The world has a leadership problem
Try a small test. Name the top three leaders in the world whom you truly like. Most people struggle after one. That is the sad state of the world we live in. Trust in leaders is low almost everywhere. Anger is easy to find. Anger is also easy to spark.
India is different in one important way. It has enjoyed political stability for more than a decade. That is not a small thing. Without political stability, there is economic chaos. Remember the 80s and the early 90s. Governments changed often. Policy changed with them. The economy paid the price. By 1991 we had to pledge gold to stay afloat.
No investor puts money into a country that may change its rules next year. Factories need years to pay off. Capital does not wait around for the street to settle. Stability is the first thing an investor checks.
Regime change is not economic change
The protests in Bangladesh did bring regime change. But will life improve for the people of Bangladesh? Not soon, and not yet. Economic damage is quiet. It does not show up on the day of the protest. It shows up in the factory that never opened. It shows up in the investor who chose Vietnam instead. It shows up in the young graduate who still cannot find a job.
An economic dent is usually invisible. It takes decades to recover from. By the time people notice, the damage is already done.
What instability already cost us
We have paid this price before. We lost ground to China because of two decades of political instability. We lost another two decades because we opened our economy about 20 years later than China did. So in essence, China is nearly 40 years ahead of India economically.
That gap is not just a number. It is a lesson. Every year of confusion at home is a year of growth handed to someone else.
This matters more because of geography. The USA is a superpower. It was never a big bother for India. India tolerated it because India was barely touched by American hegemony. It was far away. But think about a superpower as your neighbour. Think about a neighbour you have fought wars with. Think about deep distrust on both sides. That brings perplexity and paranoia. In that situation, India cannot afford to be weak or divided at home. A slow economy is a security risk too.
A lesson from Animal Farm
George Orwell wrote Animal Farm in 1945. The story is simple. The animals on Manor Farm are tired of Mr. Jones, the careless farmer. They rise up and drive him out. The mood is joyful. They believe a new age has begun. They write seven commandments on the barn wall. The most important one says all animals are equal.
Then the pigs take charge. Napoleon and Snowball lead the farm. Snowball is driven out. Napoleon gathers all the power. The pigs start to drink the milk and keep the apples. The farm starts to run worse than before. The animals work harder and eat less. One by one, the commandments are changed. In the end, the wall reads: “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”
The last scene is the saddest. The animals look through the window at the pigs and the humans. They cannot tell who is who.
The lesson is not that rebellion is always wrong. The lesson is that a revolt without a plan only changes the faces. The animals knew what they were against. They did not know what they were building. Energy without direction is easy to capture. Clever people with ambition simply take it over.
Ask the same question about every regime change. Who sits in the chair now? What is the plan? Who pays the bill? The crowd that makes the change is rarely the crowd that gets the reward. Bangladesh and Nepal are still answering these questions.
Who is the real Gen Z?
Now look at who Gen Z really is in India.
Gen Z are ones who are guarding our borders, providing better civil services to masses, took part in OP Sindoor and creating start ups that employ people. So the rioting, street dancing and making reels bunch are anything but Gen Z.
The way forward
None of this means India should stop asking questions. A healthy democracy needs criticism. It needs a free press and honest debate. Young people should demand jobs, fair exams and clean governance. They should use votes, courts, and civic work to do it. Anger can be useful if it has a direction.
But burning the house to fix the roof is not reform. A country is not a reel that goes viral and fades. It is a long project, and the benefits come slowly.
India has stability. It has a young and skilled population. It has a growing economy and a place in the world that people respect. The job of this generation is to protect that base and build on it. Do not trade it for a moment of noise.
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In a diverse country like India, where each State is socially, culturally, economically, and politically distinct, measuring Governance becomes increasingly tricky. The Public Affairs Index (PAI 2021) is a scientifically rigorous, data-based framework that measures the quality of governance at the Sub-national level and ranks the States and Union Territories (UTs) of India on a Composite Index (CI).
States are classified into two categories – Large and Small – using population as the criteria.
In PAI 2021, PAC defined three significant pillars that embody Governance – Growth, Equity, and Sustainability. Each of the three Pillars is circumscribed by five governance praxis Themes.
The themes include – Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
At the bottom of the pyramid, 43 component indicators are mapped to 14 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are relevant to the States and UTs.
This forms the foundation of the conceptual framework of PAI 2021. The choice of the 43 indicators that go into the calculation of the CI were dictated by the objective of uncovering the complexity and multidimensional character of development governance
The Equity Principle
The Equity Pillar of the PAI 2021 Index analyses the inclusiveness impact at the Sub-national level in the country; inclusiveness in terms of the welfare of a society that depends primarily on establishing that all people feel that they have a say in the governance and are not excluded from the mainstream policy framework.
This requires all individuals and communities, but particularly the most vulnerable, to have an opportunity to improve or maintain their wellbeing. This chapter of PAI 2021 reflects the performance of States and UTs during the pandemic and questions the governance infrastructure in the country, analysing the effectiveness of schemes and the general livelihood of the people in terms of Equity.
Growth and its Discontents
Growth in its multidimensional form encompasses the essence of access to and the availability and optimal utilisation of resources. By resources, PAI 2021 refer to human resources, infrastructure and the budgetary allocations. Capacity building of an economy cannot take place if all the key players of growth do not drive development. The multiplier effects of better health care, improved educational outcomes, increased capital accumulation and lower unemployment levels contribute magnificently in the growth and development of the States.
The Pursuit Of Sustainability
The Sustainability Pillar analyses the access to and usage of resources that has an impact on environment, economy and humankind. The Pillar subsumes two themes and uses seven indicators to measure the effectiveness of government efforts with regards to Sustainability.
The Curious Case Of The Delta
The Delta Analysis presents the results on the State performance on year-on-year improvement. The rankings are measured as the Delta value over the last five to 10 years of data available for 12 Key Development Indicators (KDI). In PAI 2021, 12 indicators across the three Pillars of Equity (five indicators), Growth (five indicators) and Sustainability (two indicators). These KDIs are the outcome indicators crucial to assess Human Development. The Performance in the Delta Analysis is then compared to the Overall PAI 2021 Index.
Key Findings:-
In the Scheme of Things
The Scheme Analysis adds an additional dimension to ranking of the States on their governance. It attempts to complement the Governance Model by trying to understand the developmental activities undertaken by State Governments in the form of schemes. It also tries to understand whether better performance of States in schemes reflect in better governance.
The Centrally Sponsored schemes that were analysed are National Health Mission (NHM), Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services scheme (ICDS), Mahatma Gandh National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan (SmSA) and MidDay Meal Scheme (MDMS).
National Health Mission (NHM)
INTEGRATED CHILD DEVELOPMENT SERVICES (ICDS)
MID- DAY MEAL SCHEME (MDMS)
SAMAGRA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN (SMSA)
MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT GUARANTEE SCHEME (MGNREGS)