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It took Haryana twenty long years to bring up the child sex ratio (in the age group of 0 to 6 years) to 900 as per the Civil Registration System, January 2016 though it still remains lower than the generally accepted national norm of 950 girls to 1000 boys. Nevertheless, it is a significant improvement from the 2011 Census, where the child sex ratio was 834 girls to 1000 boys, far worse than the national average.
At the same time in some parts of Haryana, there exists a growing population of young parents who are keen to keep their girls and educate them. Data from the civil registration system revealed that for the very first time 12 of the 21 districts in Haryana have reached the child sex ratio of 900 girls per 1,000 boys. The report was backed by Haryana health minister and senior BJP leader Anil Vij, who claimed that intensive inspection campaigns being run under the Beti Bachao-Beti Padhao programme was the reason for the improvement.
Haryana girls including Sakshi Malik, Geeta and Babita Phogat, and Deepa Malik winning laurels for the country in sports has been seen as foregrounding women empowerment and indirectly having an impact in terms of valuation of girl child. After the 2010 commonwealth games, Mahavir Singh Phogat, the father, claimed that more than 150 wrestling arenas for girls were built in the village.
But is sports a good enough reason to turn Haryana – notorious for female foeticide and honour killing into a state where a household without a girl child is eyed with suspicion?
Haryana is even today struggling towards creating a better atmosphere for women despite many laudable programmes launched by the State. The social challenge of preference for the male child remains deeply ingrained in the minds of the populace.
A 2014 G’nY survey of Village Miya Khandani, in Fatehbad, Haryana, published in the Vol 14, Issue 82, titled ‘Women in Panchayat’, revealed several downsides that women leaders face in Haryana, like not being able to organise any women group meetings because Haryana does not yet have any statutory provision mandating it. But that did not stop Sushma, sarpanch of Miya Khadani village in Fatehbad, from breaking social taboos while some village elders even today deride her for not covering her face whist conversing with senior men.
Sushma found herself cocooned in her veil as people spoke to her asking her to see this, read that or sign there. As a sarpanch, however, she felt the need to unveil herself when she found the veil debilitating in her interaction with government officials. It was then that she consulted her family and involved them in her decision.
Similarly, inspired by the film ‘Dangal’, the village Panchayat sarpanch of Charkhi Dadri in Kamod village of Haryana, installed his nameplate along with his daughters, in a first move ever (ToI, 20.1.2017). The villagers, both caught by surprise and delighted have emulated his example and installed new nameplates adorning their daughter’s names outside their homes. The cost is being borne by the village panchayat.
But, misuse of sex selection technology in the outskirts of the villages if not in the interiors and giving in to societal pressures of seeking out the sex of the child continues. Often, these sex determination tests are conducted by quacks adding to adverse consequences for women’s health.
The state health authorities in Haryana claimed to have registered over 380 FIRs under Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Test (PCPNDT) Act and Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act from April to December 2016.
The latest challenge before the Haryana Government officials is mushrooming of illegal ultrasound centres in Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, in areas adjoining Haryana. Last year alone, over 74 inter-state raids were conducted with 37 in Uttar Pradesh alone.
In an attempt to change perceptions at the grass root level, schemes like ‘Aapki Beti-Hamari Beti’ which ensures life insurance policy for girl children, ‘Beti Bachao Asha Protsahan’ and ‘Sukanya Samridhi Khata Yojana’ have been encouraging people to invest in their daughter’s education Haryana Government also set up a ‘Haryana Kanya Kosh’ where individuals and organizations can donate for the cause.
Though some villages in Haryana are still far behind in improving their child sex ratio and have an alarming surplus of boys and young men, yet attitudes and behaviour are changing. Haryana thus presents a mixed bag of hopes and despair for girls. On one hand there are sparks supporting and encouraging girls and on the other despite improvement in child sex ratios, the picture remains grim.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.