Launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in 2009, the Kepler telescope, named after the astronomer Johannes Kepler, is a telescope aboard a space observatory in a heliocentric orbit trailing Earth. With a much higher field of vision than the Hubble telescope, the telescope is designed to survey a portion of the Milky Way with the specific objective of determining the properties of planets beyond the Solar System.
The Kepler telescope utilizes a photometer as its sole scientific instrument that monitors the light emitted by distant stars without the refractive interference of the Earth’s atmosphere. The data collected is transmitted to Earth, where it is analyzed to detect the minute dimming of the star’s light as exoplanets – planets other than those of our solar system – pass in between the telescope and the star using a method called doppler spectroscopy. All properties of the planets are analyzed according to the analysis of the properties of the light from the star. The method is able to ascertain properties such as the presence of the planet and its size, a planet’s proximity to and orbit around its star, the minimum number of planets in a star system, the properties of the stars themselves, and certain physical properties of giant-planets close to the star.
For example, using doppler spectroscopy, a method of analyzing wavelengths of the characteristic spectral lines of a light source, one could evaluate the chemical composition of the star based on the spectral signature (representation in the colour spectrum) of the chemical components. Measuring the chemical composition of the planet involves the readings from when the planet passes in front of the star subtracted from the star’s cumulative chemical composition. However, without empirical evidence that proves the hypotheses conclusively, nothing can be said with absolute certainty about the chemical composition of the exoplanets discovered. With the passage of time, we could hope for a more complete and proven hypotheses of the properties of exoplanets, existence of which are being increasingly revealed by Kepler telescope and more.
One science in particular shall be truly tested if the hope that has been generated from the recent finding of 10 more Earth-like planets in the goldilocks zone is realized – the science of biology –presently unique to Earth, unlike many other scientific laws. The ‘goldilocks zone’ for exoplanets represents its potential habitability as when the planet orbits in such a distance from its star that it can be said to receive just the right amount of energy from its star to be able to support life.
One major stipulation for measuring this zone for scientists is the possibility for the exoplanet to support liquid water. Being too close to the star might cause water to vapourize and being too far could freeze it. In the goldilocks zone, scientists are hoping that the exoplanet might be able to support water – the chemical solvent required by all life on Earth.
However, this can be variable. The recent discovery of liquid methane seas in Saturn’s moon Titan by the spacecraft Cassini, that could cause rain to fall like snowflakes in Titan’s low gravity atmosphere, point towards interesting possibilities. Methane does not naturally occur in a liquid state on earth, but in a gaseous state. Titan’s extremely low temperatures and hydrocarbon atmosphere allows liquid methane seas, and this points towards ways of looking at alien exoplanets.
Out of the planets newly validated by NASA, 550 out of the confirmed 2,335 exoplanets are rocky worlds. Out of these, 21 are worlds where the temperatures based on the energy supplied by the star could be just right for liquid water to be present on the surface (NASA, 2017). This raises the hope for life to evolve on planets such as these. Although there is no method of conclusively proving the presence of life on these planets, there is a theory based on the possibilities for discovering life within the Solar System.
Considering that in the near future, humanity succeeds in finding even microbial life within the Solar System, with NASA’s focus on finding life based on the presence of liquids on planets, the theory proposes that this would open up the possibility that life might indeed be plentiful throughout the universe.
Humanity’s understanding of planetary schematics is progressing steadily with Kepler’s findings. Among its significant discoveries is the exoplanet Kepler-452b in 2014, which scientists expect to be similar to Earth in many respects due to its location within the habitable zone, although it is located about 1,400 light years away from Earth. In April in 2017, scientists discovered a super-Earth, named LHS-1140b, that orbits a red dwarf star and is 40 light years away.
These and more discoveries by telescopes such as the Kepler telescope, are building up a profile of diversity in exoplanets, with previously unknown planet varieties such as super-Earths and mini-Neptunes. Kepler has only explored a tiny patch of the Milky Way called the Cygnus Field – with about 1,50,000 stars (NASA, 2017). Given the about 300 billion stars estimated to be present in the Milky Way, the amazing diversity from the initial observations point towards the fact that the nuances of the universe might be more interesting than could be imagined.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.