One of the key mandates of NITI Aayog is to foster co-operative federalism through structured support initiatives. In this spirit, last year, the Prime Minister had constituted three sub-groups of Chief Ministers to advise the central government on Rationalization of Centrally Sponsored Schemes, Skill Development and Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan. This was a case of a reversal of the past approach whereby the erstwhile Planning Commission directed the states on how they should spend the funds provided by it. After deliberations and consultations with different stakeholders, all three sub-groups of Chief Ministers have submitted their reports. While some recommendations have been implemented, others are under consideration.
Taking cue from this process, NITI Aayog recently experimented with a new approach for facilitating the resolution of issues involving states and central ministries. For most projects that states implement, there are permissions and clearances that they must obtain from central ministries. Many times, the process of granting these permissions and clearances get tied up into one or the other bureaucratic hurdle. Poor communication can sometimes lead to unnecessary delay for long periods of time. Bringing the two sides together on a single platform can help resolve these matters swiftly and to the satisfaction of all involved.
Recognizing this problem, NITI Aayog recently took the initiative to seek resolution of several pending issues of the State of Telangana with seven different central ministries. Initially, there were discussions between the State of Telangana government and the Aayog that led to the identification of some 20 issues on which the former needed answers, clearances or permissions from the central ministries. The Aayog first sent a note flagging these issues to the officials in the ministries at the appropriate levels in advance and then with mutual consent called a meeting of the senior state and central government officials under the chairmanship of its Vice Chairman. This process ensured that officials from both Central Ministries and the State Government came prepared.
The 20 issues were spread across ministries of Coal; Petroleum and Natural Gas; Power; Environment, Forests and Climate Change; Culture; Finance and Rural Development. With the benefit of senior officials of all ministries present, each issue could be discussed face-to-face between senior officials of the Government of Telangana and the relevant ministry officials. To the great satisfaction of both sides, one by one, all issues were either resolved or brought much closer to resolution. Some of these issues had been pending for more than six months. The best aspect of the process was that both sides discussed matters in good faith yielding ground where it was warranted and explaining satisfactorily when the outcome desired by the other side was not feasible. The entire meeting took less than two hours and required nudging by the Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog in only a few instances.
Three examples give the flavor of the nature of the issues facing Telangana and outcomes achieved. In implementing the rural housing scheme, Telangana has developed its own online beneficiary payment system that captures information on additional loans taken by beneficiaries and materials such as cement supplied to them. These features are not captured in AwaasSoft, the newly introduced payment system of the Ministry of Rural Development. The state has had difficulty in getting clarity on whether and how it could use its own system without putting the central government requirements in jeopardy. Upon discussion, a solution was found with the Ministry of Rural Development agreeing to Telangana using its own software for disbursement of benefits as long as it fed the relevant data into the national portal through web-server.
The second example concerned the applications by Telangana for allocations of natural gas for its Karimnagar and Shankarpally gas based power projects submitted to Government of India in November 2010 and April 2011, respectively. But the issue remained unresolved. Discussions resulted in the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas informing the state officials that domestic production of natural gas fell far short of the demand. But luckily the price of imported gas had dropped by a wide margin recently and the State Government could import gas from using the existing infrastructure of Government of India. This was acceptable to Telangana officials and the matter was resolved.
The final example involves Bhadradri Thermal Power Project. The Government of Telangana had requested the Ministry of Power in August 2015 to accord approval for establishing 4×270 MW coal based thermal power project with subcritical technology. The Ministry of Power responded that it had adopted the policy of denying permissions to plants with subcritical technology during the 13th Five Year Plan. The state of Telangana argued that they were entitled to clearance of the project because they would complete the project within the 12th Five Year Plan. While NITI Aayog supported the state’s position, the Ministry of Power stood ground that it had already been denying permission to all subcritical plants. The impasse was, however, resolved when the official from the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change stated that even if the Ministry of Power granted permission on the ground that the project would be completed before the 13th Plan, environmental clearance will not be given. The official advised the State to adopt supercritical technology to ensure that the necessary environmental clearance would be granted. The matter was thus resolved.
These examples illustrate the unnecessary delays can happen on account of very simple problems that can be readily resolved if the two sides come together at a single platform to speak face-to-face in good faith. The role of NITI Aayog was to make this happen. There are, of course, symmetrical problems that central government projects face in the states and there is scope for taking up those as well at forums such as this one. NITI Aayog stands ready to serve as the forum for similar future consultations to resolve two-way issues between other states and the central ministries. It makes no sense to delay projects on account of matters that are easily resolved by coming together face-to-face.
Thus completing the circle of co-operative federalism complete,in its true sense.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.