As of now, the introduction of GM Mustard has been put on hold. The Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC) which was supposed to take a decision on whether or not to commercialize genetically modified (GM) mustard has failed to decide, in the face of opposition from many quarters, including former health minister Dr Ambumani Ramadoss.
Earlier, a moratorium was put on GM Brinjal in 2010. Developed by Delhi University’s Centre for Genetic Manipulation of Crop Plants (CGCMP), GM mustard or Dhara Mustard Hybrid 11(DH-11) is claimed to give a 20 to 30 per cent higher yield than normal mustard varieties.
Bt cotton was the first GM crop to be introduced in India. But notwithstanding claims of boll-worm resistance and higher yield, Bt cotton has found to fall short of expectations. In fact, the initial high yield could not be sustained in later years, and while it was found to be resistant to boll-worm, it could not provide resistance to other pests. Thus, more pesticides required to be used by farmers, hiking the cost of production, and pushing farmers into debt.
GM crops are even otherwise, subject to many controversies. Dr Vandana Shiva, one of the most outspoken critics of GM crops, has been stridently questioning the claims of high yield and pest resistance that are the major arguments presented in favour of this technology.
The most important question is that of bio-safety where GM crops are concerned. Transgenic crops are required to be planted away from other crops in keeping with biosafety regulations. However, these rules were violated at the time of clinical trials conducted for Bt cotton. Subsequent exploitation of farmers, and the infertility of GM seeds have also been major issues, since GM seeds can never be stored or re-used. Farmers, hence, need to buy these every year. Such as system benefits the seed manufacturers and strengthens their monopoly, to the detriment of the farmer.
Since labeling is not a common feature in India-unlike abroad, GM crops like Bt cotton have ended up being sold in the open market, alongside traditional cotton. At a time when India is grappling with a cancer epidemic due to uncontrolled use of pesticides, especially in states like Punjab, the high risks involved with a hybrid crop that will need high pesticide inputs has made most Indians resistant to GM crops.
Lack of transparency and the reluctance of companies to make the results of field trials available in the public domain is another major factor that has gone against the introduction of GM crops. The opaqueness of regulators of not placing the biosafety data in the public domain, despite a Supreme Court Order to the contrary, was recently cited by DrRamadoss, who has called on the government to reconsider the introduction of GM crops.
Another argument put forth is that many times people don’t know which genes are being inserted in the crop.GMO labeling is an important aspect, which needs to be addressed.GM plants can also lead to ‘super resistant weeds’.Since certain GM plants might be resistant to herbicides this can lead to weeds becoming resistant through natural selection.Agri-scientists fear that GM crops may interact with wild varieties of plants and form ‘hybrid plants’, resulting in the loss of wild varieties and precious biodiversity.
Dr. Deepak Pental, Professor of Genetics and the Ex Vice Chancellor of Delhi University and the developer of GM mustard claims, “Tests were mostly carried out in Western India and the mustard should be grown where it is most adapted to”. “Also, no adverse effect on pollinators such as bees, birds, has been found yet”, he cites. On being asked as to why the biosafety data was not being released, he said, “…the data has to go first to the GEAC who will then present their findings to the statutory body. You can also file a RTI to get information about the biosafety trials.”
Critics of GM, such as Dr Shiva’s organization, Navdanya, remain extremely agitated about the biosafety factor. They point out, “GM mustard is unethical and may not meet Indian medical standards. Normal mustard is used in ayurveda and massage oils.Since there won’t be any labeling differentiating between GM and normal mustard, how will people be able to make a choice between the two?”
On claims of GM crops getting engineered to fight droughts,salinity and natural disasters, and giving high yields with low input, they point to how organic cultivation of wild cultivars can produce better results, and a healthier population.
On the other side, India will need to take a quick, and well-informed decision to ensure food security and ample yields for its ever-growing population in the face of climate change, dropping groundwater levels, and frequent natural disasters.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.