The prelims is over and multiple answer keys are out, few questions and their answers, as always depends on what UPSC thinks is the right answer to those questions. Meanwhile, lets do an analysis and find out what is in store for PRELIMS 2018.
Geneal analysis of this year Prelims:-
We had a believe that UPSC will change the paper pattern this year. And it did. Whether it is good or bad – that depends and varies from aspirant to aspirant.
The good part is that:-
Many questions are conceptual and analytical rather than straight-forward, which is good for those candidates who have done in-depth study of basic books and really understand them.
The current events based question did take a hit this year, UPSC has asked few of them as compared to last year.
The last year prelims paper was “criticized” in many forums as the questions were not very UPSC like.
However this year, UPSC stuck to its standards and asked those questions that really resonates with the demand of the exam.
For upcoming prelims, there will be no more surprises ( according to our opinion) and the paper will be as analytical as this years. It might be little tougher than this years.
The reason we are certain of this fact is not based on “prediction” or “feeling”, it is based on a news report which we came across few days back (New Report)
It is in tune with the recommendations of the Alagh Committee, which observed that “the standard of testing should be raised incrementally and the questions should be designed to test a broad spectrum of knowledge”
PRELIMS 2018 Strategy
The devil is in the the details:-
Few questions this year such as those related to IPR & DIPP as nodal agency or question related to NPS were asked to check the aspirants “eye for detail”.
Irrespective of which site you follow, do an in-detail reading of the policy at least once and make a note of it (especially those points that seems “odd or out-of-the-box”)
The current events question related to policy and program will not be humongous for next year as all the policy of this government has already been launched, so how many more will be there – not much of course.
Question related to government initiatives and policy will be less going forward for the same reason that all the polices are already launched by the government and there is hardly any new policy coming out these days.
Always look out for the CATCH:-
Always look out for the CATCH, that is look out for those points that can be tricky. For example , UPSC asked a question related to bio-remediation this year, although almost all of you had prepared for the concept of bio-remediation yet the question can be tricky.
A golden rule for this kind of question is – Always find out the limitations of any technology or in-applicability of a policy. The questions are getting very specific, hence this will be very important for next year exam as well.
For example – if you read on bio-remediation, check where it is not very efficient or what are its limitations. That will go a long way in helping you eliminate the options, also as compared to applicability, shortcomings or ineligibility of a concept or policy is usually less and easy to remember.
Focus on the CATCH:-
Last year Start up India program was on the forefront, yet UPSC asked about Stand up India and its application. Similarly this year , UPSC asked about UNNAT BHARAT scheme.
The name of this kind of scheme does not resonate well with their objective. Hence they are the “CATCH” and can confuse an aspirant in real-exam.So focus more on them. The name of the schemes implies something where as their objectives are entirely different.
Don’t solely rely on Current Affairs materials-
The current affairs based question will be comparatively less going forth, so while you prepare current affairs, don’t compromise on static portion. Also if the current affairs is little analytical in nature, spend little time over it to internalize and understand.(For example-Indus water Treaty and which one belong to India exclusively etc).
The days of short-cut seems over, so do a rigorous study of static portion as well.
Substantiate your study with Map:-
Every-time you read a news that has geographical connotation, always refer a map. For example – if you read a news on Syria, check its location, check the map , and its surrounding region. Also check the periphery region as well. For example, if you read on Syria and check the map , do check Mediterranean sea in the map as well. Or if you read a news on India’s rescue mission in Gulf, add knowledge of Map to your study.
This is how all mapping question are framed by UPSC (all the time)
For Environment question- Focus more on organizations-
Environment questions were little tough this year. So prepare a list of organization and initiatives, especially those related to UN.( One should obtain full knowledge on all UN systems and programs). Also focus on few important NGOs and Initiatives that are not sponsored by any formal systems. While UN or govt initiatives are essentially top-down, NGOs and civil society initiatives are bottom-up.
A case in point is water.org , which may sound like part of UN or intergovernmental initiative but it is an initiative by group of individual (Matt Demon is part of it) and it devised the concept of water credit.
If you don’t know it, and a question is asked on water credit , one would be inclined to think that it is an UN initiative or related to some kind of protocol ( For example-Kyoto and carbon credit).
For History and Culture – Don’t miss the woods for the tree:-
For any history related question , develop a strong sense of chronology, as UPSC is asking this kind of questions. Also last year there was a question on Keshab Chandra Sen and this year it was related to Radhakant Deb, and it appears UPSC has been shifting its reference material to frame tougher question on history year after year.
Don’t loose sleep over it because if you invest a huge amount of time to get one question right, chances are that you might miss the woods for the tree. Read the standard material , but read them thoroughly.
To Sum it up , here is what you should do for PRELIMS 2018:-
- Start with basic books, read them thoroughly, solve all previous questions related to static portion. Usually 2 or 3 questions are always repeated by UPSC (Mediterranean question was asked in 2014 as well)
- Build a strong sense of chronology on History, read the standard books thoroughly. Meanwhile allow us do some research and find out the reference sources.
- Develop a strong knowledge on Map. Integrate knowledge of location in all your studies and wherever applicable.
- Culture questions were tough this year (Except the Padmapani question). Apply the golden rule for history and culture- Don’t miss the woods for the trees.
- Don’t restrict your learning to understanding the environmental concepts, do find out their limitations.
- For all policies, check where it is not applicable and the implementing agency/nodal agency.(For example Dept of Pharma is under Ministry of Chemical and Fertilizer- that’s a catch)
- Always have an eye for the “CATCH” and focus more on them. UPSC always goes for the catch.(Example- Brominated Vegetable oil in Soft drinks,NPS, Unnat Bharat, Radhakant Deb and many more)
- Follow PIB regularly (It has taken over the place of “thehindu” this time)
- Lastly, don’t miss a word from the Polity book.
Of course, there are certain other findings/pattern study with us related to PRELIMS and MAINS, we will be soon be releasing them once we finalize. Meanwhile, do remember- “The battle is not over until you win” – that should be your guiding spirit.
Thank You
UPSCTREE
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.