Introdution
India taking more than seven decades to host the leader of the most populous Arab country as the chief guest of the Republic Day celebrations signals the current state of bilateral relations.
However, this should not have been the case, especially given the bonhomie of the 1950s.
As Egyptian writer Mohamed Hassanein Heikal once reminded, between February 1953 and July 1955 alone, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and President Gamal Abdel Nasser met as many as eight times. Due to logistical and political reasons, Cairo was Nehru’s transit point for his visits to Europe and the Americas and this partly contributed to the frequency.
Decline of Egypt
The June War of 1967, which ended with the Arab defeat, marked Egypt’s decline in Middle Eastern politics and this was formalised following the oil crisis of 1973 that cemented the ascendance of Saudi influence.
The energy-driven approach to the region spurred by economic reforms of the 1990s further pushed Egypt out of India’s priorities.
Thus, as it was coming to terms with the post-Cold War international order, India shifted its attention to Israel, with whom it normalised relations in January 1992.
On the other hand, Egypt’s dwindling regional influence, the emergence of new players like Türkiye and Qatar, the power aspirations of Iran, and its reach beyond its immediate neighbourhood meant that India gave lesser importance to Egypt.
Moreover, the great power aspirations in the early 21st century pushed India to prioritise G20 over non-alignment. Thus, meeting Saudi leaders at G20 summits became common 2014.
Rekindling the Old flame
There were attempts to resurrect the old flames of Indo-Egyptian relations. Previous presidents Hosni Mubarak (November 2008) and Mohammed Morsi (March 2013) did visit India and not to be left behind, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi also came twice in October 2015 and September 2016.
But no Indian PM had visited Egypt since Manmohan Singh, who attended the Sharm el-Sheikh NAM summit in July 2009. Despite invites, PM Modi, who travelled to several Middle Eastern countries, has not visited Egypt. However, he met Sisi in multilateral forums such as the UN, BRICS and SCO.
China Angel
As has been the pattern in recent decades, India’s decision to host Sisi at this juncture has a China angle. China’s footprints in Sisi’s mega infrastructure projects are visible and growing.
Between 2013 and 2019 alone, China invested $28.5 billion in Egypt, with more than half of them going to industrial projects. In sync with its Belt and Road Initiative, China is active in the second Suez Canal project and the new Central Business District being developed in Cairo.
For Sisi, China offers an opportunity to lessen his dependence on the US, which is driven by human rights concerns under the Biden administration. Since assuming office in 2014, Sisi has visited China as many as seven times.
Egyptian Situation
The economic situation in Egypt is also challenging. The conditions that catapulted the masses to rise against Mubarak as well as Morsi have not fundamentally changed. The situation continues to be precarious.
More than a quarter of the 110 million population is below the poverty line. There is double-digit inflation, and unemployment is close to 10 per cent.
The national debt is expected to touch $500 billion by 2027.
In addition, the Russia-Ukraine War has accentuated the food security problems of Egypt. Nearly two-thirds of the population, or 60 million people, rely on food subsidies, and the growing import grain prices are widening Egypt’s trade deficit.
The second Suez Canal, developed at over $8 billion, is not without its problems. Due to open in July this year, it faces an unexpected challenge: Israel.
Plans are underway to build pipelines between the Israeli ports of Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba and Ashkelon on the Mediterranean for exporting Gulf oil, especially from the UAE to Europe.
When materialised, this would considerably undermine the Suez Canal tanker traffic. However, due to its geostrategic location and strategic positioning, Egypt is trying to capitalise on its multiple identities.
Despite losing its erstwhile preponderance, Egypt is still an important Arab country, wielding considerable influence in the 22-member Arab League. With over 80 per cent of its population following Islam, Egypt adheres to moderation.
Pushing the country towards religious extremism was one reason that led to President Morsi’s downfall.
Since the 1950s, its leaders have viewed Muslim Brotherhood as a threat to Egyptian identity and social fabric, and in December 2013, the Brotherhood, the mother of several religious groups in the Middle East and beyond, was proscribed as a terrorist organisation.
The Constitution, adopted through a popular referendum in January 2014, is one of the most inclusive in the world. Despite declaring Islam as the state religion, it recognises and hails the historical legacy of Moses, Jesus Christ and Prophet Mohammed in making Egypt “the cradle of religions.”
In the socio-political realm, Egypt uses its identity as an African and Francophone country in its diplomatic outreach and is a major player in both groups.
Conclusion
Above all, Egypt is a pivot in several mediating efforts in the Middle East, especially in the Arab-Israeli conflict. The peace treaty with Israel and its diplomatic engagements enabled Egypt to lower periodic tensions and conflict.
For example, even the financial clout of Qatar could not match Cairo’s diplomatic acumen in ending the 50-day Gaza conflict in 2014.
The Abraham Accords offered an additional avenue for Egypt to leverage its advantages. Convergence of interests with the US on several regional issues and geographic proximity enabled Sisi to host several meetings between Israel and Arab countries.
Even on I2U2, where India is a key member, Sisi is an indirect player by actively courting Israel and the UAE.
Thus, Egypt’s multiple identities—Arab, Islamic, African, Francophone, peace mediator and inclusive country—could be shored up to expand India’s footprints in the Middle East.
The joint statement issued during Sisi’s visit speaks of upgrading the bilateral relations “to the level of ‘Strategic Partnership’ covering political, security, defence, energy and economic areas.” However, walking the talk will be easier said than done, especially in light of both countries’ prolonged neglect and indifference.
Credit : New Indian Express, P R Kumaraswamy
Recent Posts
The United Nations has shaped so much of global co-operation and regulation that we wouldn’t recognise our world today without the UN’s pervasive role in it. So many small details of our lives – such as postage and copyright laws – are subject to international co-operation nurtured by the UN.
In its 75th year, however, the UN is in a difficult moment as the world faces climate crisis, a global pandemic, great power competition, trade wars, economic depression and a wider breakdown in international co-operation.
Still, the UN has faced tough times before – over many decades during the Cold War, the Security Council was crippled by deep tensions between the US and the Soviet Union. The UN is not as sidelined or divided today as it was then. However, as the relationship between China and the US sours, the achievements of global co-operation are being eroded.
The way in which people speak about the UN often implies a level of coherence and bureaucratic independence that the UN rarely possesses. A failure of the UN is normally better understood as a failure of international co-operation.
We see this recently in the UN’s inability to deal with crises from the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar, to civil conflict in Syria, and the failure of the Security Council to adopt a COVID-19 resolution calling for ceasefires in conflict zones and a co-operative international response to the pandemic.
The UN administration is not primarily to blame for these failures; rather, the problem is the great powers – in the case of COVID-19, China and the US – refusing to co-operate.
Where states fail to agree, the UN is powerless to act.
Marking the 75th anniversary of the official formation of the UN, when 50 founding nations signed the UN Charter on June 26, 1945, we look at some of its key triumphs and resounding failures.
Five successes
1. Peacekeeping
The United Nations was created with the goal of being a collective security organisation. The UN Charter establishes that the use of force is only lawful either in self-defence or if authorised by the UN Security Council. The Security Council’s five permanent members, being China, US, UK, Russia and France, can veto any such resolution.
The UN’s consistent role in seeking to manage conflict is one of its greatest successes.
A key component of this role is peacekeeping. The UN under its second secretary-general, the Swedish statesman Dag Hammarskjöld – who was posthumously awarded the Nobel Peace prize after he died in a suspicious plane crash – created the concept of peacekeeping. Hammarskjöld was responding to the 1956 Suez Crisis, in which the US opposed the invasion of Egypt by its allies Israel, France and the UK.
UN peacekeeping missions involve the use of impartial and armed UN forces, drawn from member states, to stabilise fragile situations. “The essence of peacekeeping is the use of soldiers as a catalyst for peace rather than as the instruments of war,” said then UN Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, when the forces won the 1988 Nobel Peace Prize following missions in conflict zones in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Central America and Europe.
However, peacekeeping also counts among the UN’s major failures.
2. Law of the Sea
Negotiated between 1973 and 1982, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) set up the current international law of the seas. It defines states’ rights and creates concepts such as exclusive economic zones, as well as procedures for the settling of disputes, new arrangements for governing deep sea bed mining, and importantly, new provisions for the protection of marine resources and ocean conservation.
Mostly, countries have abided by the convention. There are various disputes that China has over the East and South China Seas which present a conflict between power and law, in that although UNCLOS creates mechanisms for resolving disputes, a powerful state isn’t necessarily going to submit to those mechanisms.
Secondly, on the conservation front, although UNCLOS is a huge step forward, it has failed to adequately protect oceans that are outside any state’s control. Ocean ecosystems have been dramatically transformed through overfishing. This is an ecological catastrophe that UNCLOS has slowed, but failed to address comprehensively.
3. Decolonisation
The idea of racial equality and of a people’s right to self-determination was discussed in the wake of World War I and rejected. After World War II, however, those principles were endorsed within the UN system, and the Trusteeship Council, which monitored the process of decolonisation, was one of the initial bodies of the UN.
Although many national independence movements only won liberation through bloody conflicts, the UN has overseen a process of decolonisation that has transformed international politics. In 1945, around one third of the world’s population lived under colonial rule. Today, there are less than 2 million people living in colonies.
When it comes to the world’s First Nations, however, the UN generally has done little to address their concerns, aside from the non-binding UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples of 2007.
4. Human rights
The Human Rights Declaration of 1948 for the first time set out fundamental human rights to be universally protected, recognising that the “inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world”.
Since 1948, 10 human rights treaties have been adopted – including conventions on the rights of children and migrant workers, and against torture and discrimination based on gender and race – each monitored by its own committee of independent experts.
The language of human rights has created a new framework for thinking about the relationship between the individual, the state and the international system. Although some people would prefer that political movements focus on ‘liberation’ rather than ‘rights’, the idea of human rights has made the individual person a focus of national and international attention.
5. Free trade
Depending on your politics, you might view the World Trade Organisation as a huge success, or a huge failure.
The WTO creates a near-binding system of international trade law with a clear and efficient dispute resolution process.
The majority Australian consensus is that the WTO is a success because it has been good for Australian famers especially, through its winding back of subsidies and tariffs.
However, the WTO enabled an era of globalisation which is now politically controversial.
Recently, the US has sought to disrupt the system. In addition to the trade war with China, the Trump Administration has also refused to appoint tribunal members to the WTO’s Appellate Body, so it has crippled the dispute resolution process. Of course, the Trump Administration is not the first to take issue with China’s trade strategies, which include subsidises for ‘State Owned Enterprises’ and demands that foreign firms transfer intellectual property in exchange for market access.
The existence of the UN has created a forum where nations can discuss new problems, and climate change is one of them. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to assess climate science and provide policymakers with assessments and options. In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change created a permanent forum for negotiations.
However, despite an international scientific body in the IPCC, and 165 signatory nations to the climate treaty, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase.
Under the Paris Agreement, even if every country meets its greenhouse gas emission targets we are still on track for ‘dangerous warming’. Yet, no major country is even on track to meet its targets; while emissions will probably decline this year as a result of COVID-19, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will still increase.
This illustrates a core conundrum of the UN in that it opens the possibility of global cooperation, but is unable to constrain states from pursuing their narrowly conceived self-interests. Deep co-operation remains challenging.
Five failures of the UN
1. Peacekeeping
During the Bosnian War, Dutch peacekeeping forces stationed in the town of Srebrenica, declared a ‘safe area’ by the UN in 1993, failed in 1995 to stop the massacre of more than 8000 Muslim men and boys by Bosnian Serb forces. This is one of the most widely discussed examples of the failures of international peacekeeping operations.
On the massacre’s 10th anniversary, then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan wrote that the UN had “made serious errors of judgement, rooted in a philosophy of impartiality”, contributing to a mass murder that would “haunt our history forever”.
If you look at some of the other infamous failures of peacekeeping missions – in places such as Rwanda, Somalia and Angola – it is the limited powers given to peacekeeping operations that have resulted in those failures.
2. The invasion of Iraq
The invasion of Iraq by the US in 2003, which was unlawful and without Security Council authorisation, reflects the fact that the UN is has very limited capacity to constrain the actions of great powers.
The Security Council designers created the veto power so that any of the five permanent members could reject a Council resolution, so in that way it is programmed to fail when a great power really wants to do something that the international community generally condemns.
In the case of the Iraq invasion, the US didn’t veto a resolution, but rather sought authorisation that it did not get. The UN, if you go by the idea of collective security, should have responded by defending Iraq against this unlawful use of force.
The invasion proved a humanitarian disaster with the loss of more than 400,000 lives, and many believe that it led to the emergence of the terrorist Islamic State.
3. Refugee crises
The UN brokered the 1951 Refugee Convention to address the plight of people displaced in Europe due to World War II; years later, the 1967 Protocol removed time and geographical restrictions so that the Convention can now apply universally (although many countries in Asia have refused to sign it, owing in part to its Eurocentric origins).
Despite these treaties, and the work of the UN High Commission for Refugees, there is somewhere between 30 and 40 million refugees, many of them, such as many Palestinians, living for decades outside their homelands. This is in addition to more than 40 million people displaced within their own countries.
While for a long time refugee numbers were reducing, in recent years, particularly driven by the Syrian conflict, there have been increases in the number of people being displaced.
During the COVID-19 crisis, boatloads of Rohingya refugees were turned away by port after port. This tragedy has echoes of pre-World War II when ships of Jewish refugees fleeing Nazi Germany were refused entry by multiple countries.
And as a catastrophe of a different kind looms, there is no international framework in place for responding to people who will be displaced by rising seas and other effects of climate change.
4. Conflicts without end
Across the world, there is a shopping list of unresolved civil conflicts and disputed territories.
Palestine and Kashmir are two of the longest-running failures of the UN to resolve disputed lands. More recent, ongoing conflicts include the civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
The common denominator of unresolved conflicts is either division among the great powers, or a lack of international interest due to the geopolitical stakes not being sufficiently high. For instance, the inaction during the Rwandan civil war in the 1990s was not due to a division among great powers, but rather a lack of political will to engage.
In Syria, by contrast, Russia and the US have opposing interests and back opposing sides: Russia backs the government of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, whereas the US does not.
5. Acting like it’s 1945
The UN is increasingly out of step with the reality of geopolitics today.
The permanent members of the Security Council reflect the division of power internationally at the end of World War II. The continuing exclusion of Germany, Japan, and rising powers such as India and Indonesia, reflects the failure to reflect the changing balance of power.
Also, bodies such as the IMF and the World Bank, which are part of the UN system, continue to be dominated by the West. In response, China has created potential rival institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Western domination of UN institutions undermines their credibility. However, a more fundamental problem is that institutions designed in 1945 are a poor fit with the systemic global challenges – of which climate change is foremost – that we face today.