Essay Test – E01 – Statistics & Analaysis
Top 3 Scores – 105 , 101, 97 out of 250
Top 3 Scorers – Pankaj,Saumya,Shasank
Average Score – 63
Total number of submissions – 302
Most attempted topic- Demography of India – Visible dividend or Invisible disaster.
The 2nd Most attempted topic- Technology makes democracy more democratic
The 3rd Most attempted topic- Embracing the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
The least attempted topic- There is no meaning of economic prosperity if it is not accompanied by social justice.
The topic where we noted minimal digression among students- Demography of India – Visible dividend or Invisible disaster.
The topic where we noted maximum digression among students- Technology makes democracy more democratic
The topic where we noted very good writing style and content – Embracing 4th Industrial Revolution
The topic where we noted that everyone had to work on their content (less/more)-There is no meaning of economic prosperity if it is not accompanied by social justice and Technology makes democracy more democratic
Analysis of the TOPICS:-
Demography of India – Visible dividend or Invisible disaster– It is a straight forward essay, attempt only if you have data as the essay is data driven and every argument that you make , it must be substantiated with trends in data. Put as much as examples as you can for this essay.This is social topic.
Embracing the Fourth Industrial Revolution– It is one of the critical essays and the theme was a buzzword in World Economic forum last year, you have to read and quote few reports (Such as World bank report where 60% of Indian and more than 70% of Chinese manufacturing jobs will be lost to Automation). Once you show the problems that arise out of automation and robotics, connect it with how it give rise to multitude of issues. You can connect the demography parameter in this essay. Also link it with Universal Basic Income (as social safety net is must if we embrace 4th IR as people will lose jobs in huge number). You can also connect how automation and robotics will take over slavery and manual scavenging-Machine enabling release of Man from clutches of Man- this is the good part. Complete details will be given in essay topic wise strategy soon.
Technology makes democracy more democratic– This is an interesting essay and requires in-depth understanding of what democracy is – not the letter but the spirit of democracy and then connecting it with how it is enabling citizenry across the world to realize their fundamental rights.Think of the all fundamental right that you have read in your polity papers and then think how technology is helping realize it. For instance- Right to timely service delivery and How tech is enabling it (This is not fundamental right however you can also show how the concept of rights are also evolving and how technology is enabling it- Right to healthy environment etc). You can also show how tech is enabling the democratic leaders to infringe upon the fundamental rights of the people for their undemocratic ends . E.g- NSA snooping , right to privacy etc.
There is no meaning of economic prosperity if it is not accompanied by social justice –This is an interesting essay and one can right multitude of dimensions and diversify this essay. You can start with the preamble of our constitution and what does it mean by social justice and then represent what various social indicators are indicating – Islands of prosperity in sea of poverty. You can take each and every social indicator and see how did we do – did our economic progress post-1991 and the fruits of development reached every nook and corner of society – Obviously not – and then suggest what can be done.This can be written from women’s perspective as well- for example – Women in India and across world have financial autonomy now however does their economic prosperity freed them from the social drudgery – dowry, harassment, commodification of women, social attitude etc – In sum they can earn how much they want but they can not do what they want from social perspective given the patriarchy and prejudice prevailing in society.Many other perspectives can be written for this essay.You can also give examples from across the world.
TOPIC wise strategy will be uploaded in the Student Portal along with reference material and approach.Students will be notified on the same.
Topics of Essay Test – E02
1. Daughters of India –their struggles, their plights and their achievements.
2. Digital Economy and India
3. “Ability can take you to the top, character will keep you there”
4. Will we be leaving the Earth as a better place than we found it?
Total submission till date – 109 (If you have not submitted, please do submit)
Do write on the topic that we provide as that can be more helpful than picking up random topics. Just because one likes a topic that does not mean that UPSC will ask that topic. We manged to predict 6 out 8 essays in Mains 2016. We intend to do the same this year, but writing past UPSC topics or any other topic that you picked from internet is secondary. You efforts should not be fruitless.Our goal is to predict the future with precision not ponder over past and so should you.If you like a particualr topic and want to write, we will certainly review it, but before writing it, send us the topic that you want to write, so that we can guide you accordingly or re-calibrate the topic or theme to suit UPSC needs.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.