Background:-
If you say this to anyone that “more trees made Europe warmer instead of cooling it“, one might not think twice before concluding that you are insane -at least temporarily and on this occasion , also one would not hesitate to tag you as an illiterate – at least as a climate illiterate.
Even though most of us think that we are climate literate , there are chances that our preconceived notion of certain things , our understanding of certain things might not always be true.The study below does exactly that- it has the capacity to alter our knowledge on climate and trees.
Editorial :-
Trees do wonders when it comes to cooling Earth. They suck planet-warming carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, locking it into their trunks, leaves, and roots to the tune of about 2.4 billion metric tons of carbon each year. But a new study has found, somewhat counter-intuitively, that more trees might not always mean a cooler planet. In fact, researchers examining 260 years of changes in European forest management found that—despite a 10% increase in wooded land—the continent’s forests have actually caused a slight increase in regional temperatures since 1750.From 1750 to 2010, the continent added almost 200,000 square kilometers of forest, and created a 0.12°C rise in temperature.
A new study published in the journal Science has shown that forests can function as effective carbon sinks only when sustainable forest management practices are followed. The study has claimed that more than 250 years of wood extraction and other unsustainable practices in European forests had led to the accumulation of 3.1 billion metric tonnes of carbon debt despite considerable afforestation. This afforestation drive, which favoured non-native conifer species over native broad-leaved species, caused these forests to fail at addressing the challenges of climate change.
The study reconstructed the land-use history of Europe from 1750 to examine the effects of these changes on the climate. It says that while deforestation removed nearly 200,000 square kilometres of forest cover in Europe between 1750 and 1850, subsequent reforestation efforts not only made up for the losses, but actually resulted in a net gain in Europe’s overall forest cover during the study period.
But the study also noted that these reforestation efforts mainly favoured conifer trees over broad-leaved species which had dominated the European landscape earlier. This resulted in an increase in the conifer species cover by over 633,000 square kilometres, while broadleaf species cover decreased by 436,000 square kilometres.
Replacing broad-leaved forests with conifers had another unintended warming effect. Since conifer leaves tend to be darker than broad-leaved ones, it resulted in an increase in the absorption of sunlight, adding to global warming. The study adds that conifers are more conservative with water, which leads to less evapotranspiration, and to drier air which further contributed to a warming effect on climate. Overall, air temperature over the forests increased by an average of about 0.12°C during the study period. Another observation made by the study was that in the past 250 years, approximately 85 per cent of Europe’s forests came under human management and have remained under practices such as wood extraction, thinning and litter raking, reducing the climate efficacy of afforestation.
The conifers are worse for the climate because they absorb more light with their dark color, trapping heat that would otherwise be reflected back into space. They also release less cooling water into the atmosphere through evaporation. Together, these two factors were to blame for 0.08°C of the region’s warming. Foresters removing trees for wood products contributed another 0.02°C by releasing carbon that would otherwise be stored in forest debris and soil.
“European forests have failed to realise a net (CO2) removal from the atmosphere, and this is due to the fact that humans extracted wood from unmanaged forests by bringing these forests under management,” Even a well-managed forest today stores less carbon than its natural counterparts in 1750.”
The study concludes that forest management in Europe over the past 250 years has not been climate-friendly. The researchers involved in the study suggest that “the political imperative to mitigate climate change through afforestation and forest management…risks failure, unless it is recognized that not all forestry contributes to climate change mitigation”.
Lessons for India
The findings of this study are relevant to natural forests in India which have been subjected to large-scale species conversion over past several decades. For instance, vast stretches in the Himalayas have been converted to monocultures of conifers such as pines and cedars mainly during the British colonial rule. These species are not only exotic but they also provide fewer non-timber forest products (NTFPs) or other ecosystem services to local people. They have also been found ineffective in soil and moisture conservation when compared to native broad-leaved species such as oak and rhododendron.
But Indian governments and foresters have not yet learned their lessons and continue to promote monocultures and plantation of exotic species in natural forests. Recent guidelines issued by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) are also problematic since they propose handing over of open forests and natural scrub areas of the country for captive plantations by wood-based industries. Monoculture plantations over these forestlands will create large-scale ecological, economic and social problems while frequent commercial harvests of unnatural species will further reduce the climate effectiveness of our forests, as suggested by the study.
It’s also tempting to extend these results to other regions. But Europe’s temperature increase was in large part due to the continent’s specific history of forestry, its location, and the kind of tree species that are present there. The tropics, especially, play by different rules—there, slowing deforestation is almost certain to contribute to cooling, because trees in the tropics release comparatively more water into the atmosphere, seeding clouds that reflect light. The European model does indicate, however, that we should be cautious about the promise of forests to solve our climate woes.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.