Declining Fertility and Consequence:
- Global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030
- Average global fertility has been consistently declining over the past 70 years.
- The average number of children per woman in the reproductive age group has declined from an average of five children per woman in 1951 to 2.4 children in 2020 (World Population Prospects 2022)
- Most advanced economies have their fertility rate below the replacement rate of 2.1, with South Korea reporting the lowest at 1.05 children per woman
Indian Scenario:
The current fertility rate for India in 2022 is 2.159 births per woman.
As reported by the NFHS 2021, only five States have a fertility rate above the replacement rate: Bihar (3), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3), and Manipur (2.2).
Reasons for a steady decline in fertility rates in India:
- increased use of contraception
- more years of average schooling
- better health care, and an
- increase in the mean marriage age of women.
Lower fertility rates as a cause and consequence of economic development:
- Lower fertility impacts women’s education positively, which in turn lowers the fertility of the next generations.
- With better infrastructure development, better health care, and education, fertility drops, and income rises.
- The spiral of lower fertility leads to a window of time when the ratio of the working-age population is higher than that of the dependent age groups.
- This high proportion of people in the workforce boosts income and investment, given the higher level of saving due to lower dependence.
Negative implications of falling fertility rate:
- A fall in fertility rate beyond replacement level would have a negative effect on the proportion of the working population, which in turn will affect output in an economy.
- Japan was the first country to experience the implications of falling fertility rates.
- The increasing dependency ratio has led to near zero GDP growth since the 1990s.
- Some experts believe that falling fertility could diminish the creative capacity of humankind.
- An ageing population will also affect global interest rates negatively as the share of people over 50 years will form almost 40% of the population by 2100.
Solutions to deal with fertility decline:
- Reforms in the labour market to induce more flexibility in the labour market would encourage working women to have more children and non-working mothers to enter the labour market.
Policies to boost fertility acrosss the world:
- Germany allows more parental leave and benefits.
- Denmark offers state-funded IVF for women below 40 years
- Hungary recently nationalised IVF clinics.
- Poland gives out monthly cash payments to parents having more than two children
- Russia makes a one-time payment to parents when their second child is born
Conclusion:
Though the benefits of demographic dividends are being reaped, the below replacement level fertility rate would mean a smaller dividend window than expected for India.
Liberal labour reforms, encouraging higher female labour force participation rate, and a higher focus on nutrition and health would ensure sustained labour supply and output despite lower fertility.
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[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]2021 WEF Global Gender Gap report, which confirmed its 2016 finding of a decline in worldwide progress towards gender parity.
Over 2.8 billion women are legally restricted from having the same choice of jobs as men. As many as 104 countries still have laws preventing women from working in specific jobs, 59 countries have no laws on sexual harassment in the workplace, and it is astonishing that a handful of countries still allow husbands to legally stop their wives from working.
Globally, women’s participation in the labour force is estimated at 63% (as against 94% of men who participate), but India’s is at a dismal 25% or so currently. Most women are in informal and vulnerable employment—domestic help, agriculture, etc—and are always paid less than men.
Recent reports from Assam suggest that women workers in plantations are paid much less than men and never promoted to supervisory roles. The gender wage gap is about 24% globally, and women have lost far more jobs than men during lockdowns.
The problem of gender disparity is compounded by hurdles put up by governments, society and businesses: unequal access to social security schemes, banking services, education, digital services and so on, even as a glass ceiling has kept leadership roles out of women’s reach.
Yes, many governments and businesses had been working on parity before the pandemic struck. But the global gender gap, defined by differences reflected in the social, political, intellectual, cultural and economic attainments or attitudes of men and women, will not narrow in the near future without all major stakeholders working together on a clear agenda—that of economic growth by inclusion.
The WEF report estimates 135 years to close the gap at our current rate of progress based on four pillars: educational attainment, health, economic participation and political empowerment.
India has slipped from rank 112 to 140 in a single year, confirming how hard women were hit by the pandemic. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the only two Asian countries that fared worse.
Here are a few things we must do:
One, frame policies for equal-opportunity employment. Use technology and artificial intelligence to eliminate biases of gender, caste, etc, and select candidates at all levels on merit. Numerous surveys indicate that women in general have a better chance of landing jobs if their gender is not known to recruiters.
Two, foster a culture of gender sensitivity. Take a review of current policies and move from gender-neutral to gender-sensitive. Encourage and insist on diversity and inclusion at all levels, and promote more women internally to leadership roles. Demolish silos to let women grab potential opportunities in hitherto male-dominant roles. Work-from-home has taught us how efficiently women can manage flex-timings and productivity.
Three, deploy corporate social responsibility (CSR) funds for the education and skilling of women and girls at the bottom of the pyramid. CSR allocations to toilet building, the PM-Cares fund and firms’ own trusts could be re-channelled for this.
Four, get more women into research and development (R&D) roles. A study of over 4,000 companies found that more women in R&D jobs resulted in radical innovation. It appears women score far higher than men in championing change. If you seek growth from affordable products and services for low-income groups, women often have the best ideas.
Five, break barriers to allow progress. Cultural and structural issues must be fixed. Unconscious biases and discrimination are rampant even in highly-esteemed organizations. Establish fair and transparent human resource policies.
Six, get involved in local communities to engage them. As Michael Porter said, it is not possible for businesses to sustain long-term shareholder value without ensuring the welfare of the communities they exist in. It is in the best interest of enterprises to engage with local communities to understand and work towards lowering cultural and other barriers in society. It will also help connect with potential customers, employees and special interest groups driving the gender-equity agenda and achieve better diversity.