There is now a consensus among analysts that there are only a few bright spots in the global economy, and India is one of them.
India has a number of things going for it. First, it has a stable government after many years, with a huge mandate not only for economic growth but for removing the innumerable structural rigidities and reams of red tape that have plagued the economy over the decades. This mandate, in theory, gives the Indian government the opportunity to pursue its vast untapped economic potential.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recognized this once-in-a-generation opportunity. Most notably, the government’s investor-friendly programmes include Make in India, which for the first time offers a platform for global business and Indian industry to collaborate closely.
Second, from a macroeconomic perspective, India is positioned much more favourably for the future, even when compared to China. Growth accelerated this year to around 7.5%, putting the country on course to overtake China by the end of 2016.
It is no wonder that India jumped 16 places in the World Economic Forum’s latest competitiveness index to 55. China remained steady at 28, whereas Brazil fell 18 places to 75.
It is clear that India is no longer considered part of the “fragile five” emerging economies, as it was just a few years ago.
No smooth sailing
However, it’s not entirely smooth sailing just yet. In order to continue on this path, India must carry on building foreign investor confidence, something that has been more variable in recent months.
The government, just over 2 years in power, is navigating the complex political system and is learning to find its feet among a chorus of competing socio-political pulls and pressures. It will be important for the government to remained focused on what captured the imagination of hundreds of millions of young Indians to vote for the current government: stability, good governance and the opportunity to be counted among the prosperous and dynamic nations of the world.
Based on pure fundamentals, India’s outlook is promising; the art is in navigating the inevitable social, political and cultural complexities of the world’s largest democracy.
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Petrol in India is cheaper than in countries like Hong Kong, Germany and the UK but costlier than in China, Brazil, Japan, the US, Russia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report showed.
Rising fuel prices in India have led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control.
The rise in fuel prices is mainly due to the global price of crude oil (raw material for making petrol and diesel) going up. Further, a stronger dollar has added to the cost of crude oil.
Amongst comparable countries (per capita wise), prices in India are higher than those in Vietnam, Kenya, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela. Countries that are major oil producers have much lower prices.
In the report, the Philippines has a comparable petrol price but has a per capita income higher than India by over 50 per cent.
Countries which have a lower per capita income like Kenya, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Venezuela have much lower prices of petrol and hence are impacted less than India.
“Therefore there is still a strong case for the government to consider lowering the taxes on fuel to protect the interest of the people,” the report argued.
India is the world’s third-biggest oil consuming and importing nation. It imports 85 per cent of its oil needs and so prices retail fuel at import parity rates.
With the global surge in energy prices, the cost of producing petrol, diesel and other petroleum products also went up for oil companies in India.
They raised petrol and diesel prices by Rs 10 a litre in just over a fortnight beginning March 22 but hit a pause button soon after as the move faced criticism and the opposition parties asked the government to cut taxes instead.
India imports most of its oil from a group of countries called the ‘OPEC +’ (i.e, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Russia, etc), which produces 40% of the world’s crude oil.
As they have the power to dictate fuel supply and prices, their decision of limiting the global supply reduces supply in India, thus raising prices
The government charges about 167% tax (excise) on petrol and 129% on diesel as compared to US (20%), UK (62%), Italy and Germany (65%).
The abominable excise duty is 2/3rd of the cost, and the base price, dealer commission and freight form the rest.
Here is an approximate break-up (in Rs):
a)Base Price | 39 |
b)Freight | 0.34 |
c) Price Charged to Dealers = (a+b) | 39.34 |
d) Excise Duty | 40.17 |
e) Dealer Commission | 4.68 |
f) VAT | 25.35 |
g) Retail Selling Price | 109.54 |
Looked closely, much of the cost of petrol and diesel is due to higher tax rate by govt, specifically excise duty.
So the question is why government is not reducing the prices ?
India, being a developing country, it does require gigantic amount of funding for its infrastructure projects as well as welfare schemes.
However, we as a society is yet to be tax-compliant. Many people evade the direct tax and that’s the reason why govt’s hands are tied. Govt. needs the money to fund various programs and at the same time it is not generating enough revenue from direct taxes.
That’s the reason why, govt is bumping up its revenue through higher indirect taxes such as GST or excise duty as in the case of petrol and diesel.
Direct taxes are progressive as it taxes according to an individuals’ income however indirect tax such as excise duty or GST are regressive in the sense that the poorest of the poor and richest of the rich have to pay the same amount.
Does not matter, if you are an auto-driver or owner of a Mercedes, end of the day both pay the same price for petrol/diesel-that’s why it is regressive in nature.
But unlike direct tax where tax evasion is rampant, indirect tax can not be evaded due to their very nature and as long as huge no of Indians keep evading direct taxes, indirect tax such as excise duty will be difficult for the govt to reduce, because it may reduce the revenue and hamper may programs of the govt.