Dave Donaldson’s ‘Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure’ shows that the arrival of railways caused real GDP in India’s agriculture to increase by around 17%.
Suresh Prabhu may not have heard of Dave Donaldson, but the Indian railways minister would do well to read an insightful paper by the Stanford University economist who has been awarded the prestigious John Bates Clark medal for American economists under 40.
The John Bates Clark medal is a good predictor of future achievement. Twelve of the 39 economists who have won the medal have gone on to win the Nobel Prize in economics. The strike rate increases to almost one in every two if one considers only medal winners before 1993. The more recent winners are obviously too young to be in the running for a Nobel right now, so what happened to the first 25 winners is a better gauge.
One of the works by Davidson that is specifically cited by the American Economics Association in their press release last week is his paper on how the spree of railway building by the British Raj impacted the Indian economy.
Some 60,000km of track was laid in the 75 years after the first train chugged out of Bori Bunder station in Mumbai in 1853. The military intention is well known. A network of railways was seen as a convenient way to move troops across India by a colonial establishment that had been rattled by the first war of independence in 1857.
There were economic benefits as well. Karl Marx wrote presciently in 1853 that the railways would be the forerunner of modern industry. He added that trains would also dissolve traditional social arrangements.
The British funded the expansion of the railways network by floating bonds in the London market—at a guaranteed return of 5% a year. The early nationalist critics of colonial economic policy such as Dadabhai Naoroji argued that the high cost of capital was more than the returns from the railways, and hence amounted to a drain of national resources.
Donaldson is one of the new generation of development economists who use unique data sets to examine what happened in the past. His research on the economic impact of railways uses some innovative district-level data sets that he has constructed on prices, output, rainfall, domestic trade and international trade. These are based on digitized records of the British Raj. Davidson has also developed a digital map of the railways network. Each 20km stretch is coded with its year of opening.
His three key conclusions: railway expansion led to a fall in trading costs, it increased the volume of goods shipped and the economic benefits greatly exceeded the cost of construction.
“When observing the railroad network in India, I estimated that in a typical district, the arrival of railroad access caused real gross domestic product in the agricultural sector (the largest sector of India’s economy at that time) to increase by around 17%,” writes Davidson. This estimate was arrived at after taking into account both the positive and negative impact of the train on economic activity in a district.
There are two important lessons from the sort of innovative work being done by economists such as Donaldson.
First, debates about the past can be enriched if the data is carefully examined. Second, there are contemporary policy lessons as well. Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure, which Davidson wrote in September 2012, as well as his later work on the expansion of railways in the US, provides ample proof that ramping up investment in railways and roads is one of the best ways to promote development in the hinterland.
This lesson should be even more resonant at a time when the new goods and services tax will remove obstacles to internal trade by creating a truly integrated Indian market.
Six Major findings-
- Railroads signi cantly reduced the cost of trading in India.
- Railroad-driven reductions in trade costs increase bilateral trade flows.
- Railroads reduce the responsiveness of prices to local productivity shocks:
- Railroads increase real income levels.(That is, when a district is connected to the railroad
network its real income rises; however, improvements in the railroad network that by-pass
a district reduce the district’s real income (a negative spillover effect) - Railroads decrease real income volatility (When a district is connected to the railroad network,
its real income is less responsive to stochastic productivity shocks in the district (which reduces
volatility) - There exists a sufficient statistic for the welfare gains from railroads.
Pictorial Representation of historical development of railroads in India:-
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Petrol in India is cheaper than in countries like Hong Kong, Germany and the UK but costlier than in China, Brazil, Japan, the US, Russia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report showed.
Rising fuel prices in India have led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control.
The rise in fuel prices is mainly due to the global price of crude oil (raw material for making petrol and diesel) going up. Further, a stronger dollar has added to the cost of crude oil.
Amongst comparable countries (per capita wise), prices in India are higher than those in Vietnam, Kenya, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela. Countries that are major oil producers have much lower prices.
In the report, the Philippines has a comparable petrol price but has a per capita income higher than India by over 50 per cent.
Countries which have a lower per capita income like Kenya, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Venezuela have much lower prices of petrol and hence are impacted less than India.
“Therefore there is still a strong case for the government to consider lowering the taxes on fuel to protect the interest of the people,” the report argued.
India is the world’s third-biggest oil consuming and importing nation. It imports 85 per cent of its oil needs and so prices retail fuel at import parity rates.
With the global surge in energy prices, the cost of producing petrol, diesel and other petroleum products also went up for oil companies in India.
They raised petrol and diesel prices by Rs 10 a litre in just over a fortnight beginning March 22 but hit a pause button soon after as the move faced criticism and the opposition parties asked the government to cut taxes instead.
India imports most of its oil from a group of countries called the ‘OPEC +’ (i.e, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Russia, etc), which produces 40% of the world’s crude oil.
As they have the power to dictate fuel supply and prices, their decision of limiting the global supply reduces supply in India, thus raising prices
The government charges about 167% tax (excise) on petrol and 129% on diesel as compared to US (20%), UK (62%), Italy and Germany (65%).
The abominable excise duty is 2/3rd of the cost, and the base price, dealer commission and freight form the rest.
Here is an approximate break-up (in Rs):
a)Base Price | 39 |
b)Freight | 0.34 |
c) Price Charged to Dealers = (a+b) | 39.34 |
d) Excise Duty | 40.17 |
e) Dealer Commission | 4.68 |
f) VAT | 25.35 |
g) Retail Selling Price | 109.54 |
Looked closely, much of the cost of petrol and diesel is due to higher tax rate by govt, specifically excise duty.
So the question is why government is not reducing the prices ?
India, being a developing country, it does require gigantic amount of funding for its infrastructure projects as well as welfare schemes.
However, we as a society is yet to be tax-compliant. Many people evade the direct tax and that’s the reason why govt’s hands are tied. Govt. needs the money to fund various programs and at the same time it is not generating enough revenue from direct taxes.
That’s the reason why, govt is bumping up its revenue through higher indirect taxes such as GST or excise duty as in the case of petrol and diesel.
Direct taxes are progressive as it taxes according to an individuals’ income however indirect tax such as excise duty or GST are regressive in the sense that the poorest of the poor and richest of the rich have to pay the same amount.
Does not matter, if you are an auto-driver or owner of a Mercedes, end of the day both pay the same price for petrol/diesel-that’s why it is regressive in nature.
But unlike direct tax where tax evasion is rampant, indirect tax can not be evaded due to their very nature and as long as huge no of Indians keep evading direct taxes, indirect tax such as excise duty will be difficult for the govt to reduce, because it may reduce the revenue and hamper may programs of the govt.
Globally, around 80% of wastewater flows back into the ecosystem without being treated or reused, according to the United Nations.
This can pose a significant environmental and health threat.
In the absence of cost-effective, sustainable, disruptive water management solutions, about 70% of sewage is discharged untreated into India’s water bodies.
A staggering 21% of diseases are caused by contaminated water in India, according to the World Bank, and one in five children die before their fifth birthday because of poor sanitation and hygiene conditions, according to Startup India.
As we confront these public health challenges emerging out of environmental concerns, expanding the scope of public health/environmental engineering science becomes pivotal.
For India to achieve its sustainable development goals of clean water and sanitation and to address the growing demands for water consumption and preservation of both surface water bodies and groundwater resources, it is essential to find and implement innovative ways of treating wastewater.
It is in this context why the specialised cadre of public health engineers, also known as sanitation engineers or environmental engineers, is best suited to provide the growing urban and rural water supply and to manage solid waste and wastewater.
Traditionally, engineering and public health have been understood as different fields.
Currently in India, civil engineering incorporates a course or two on environmental engineering for students to learn about wastewater management as a part of their pre-service and in-service training.
Most often, civil engineers do not have adequate skills to address public health problems. And public health professionals do not have adequate engineering skills.
India aims to supply 55 litres of water per person per day by 2024 under its Jal Jeevan Mission to install functional household tap connections.
The goal of reaching every rural household with functional tap water can be achieved in a sustainable and resilient manner only if the cadre of public health engineers is expanded and strengthened.
In India, public health engineering is executed by the Public Works Department or by health officials.
This differs from international trends. To manage a wastewater treatment plant in Europe, for example, a candidate must specialise in wastewater engineering.
Furthermore, public health engineering should be developed as an interdisciplinary field. Engineers can significantly contribute to public health in defining what is possible, identifying limitations, and shaping workable solutions with a problem-solving approach.
Similarly, public health professionals can contribute to engineering through well-researched understanding of health issues, measured risks and how course correction can be initiated.
Once both meet, a public health engineer can identify a health risk, work on developing concrete solutions such as new health and safety practices or specialised equipment, in order to correct the safety concern..
There is no doubt that the majority of diseases are water-related, transmitted through consumption of contaminated water, vectors breeding in stagnated water, or lack of adequate quantity of good quality water for proper personal hygiene.
Diseases cannot be contained unless we provide good quality and adequate quantity of water. Most of the world’s diseases can be prevented by considering this.
Training our young minds towards creating sustainable water management systems would be the first step.
Currently, institutions like the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras (IIT-M) are considering initiating public health engineering as a separate discipline.
To leverage this opportunity even further, India needs to scale up in the same direction.