Syllabus Connect:- GS III (Energy)
Context:-
At the beginning of the new millennium, amid growing awareness of the link between energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, the notion of a ‘nuclear renaissance’ became popular. Scientists and policy makers identified low carbon nuclear power as a potential protagonist in the transition to clean energy.
However, the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), on 11 March 2011 dealt a blow to plans for swiftly scaling up nuclear power to address not only climate change, but also energy poverty and economic development.
As the global community turned its attention to strengthening nuclear safety, several countries opted to phase out nuclear power.
Following efforts to strengthen nuclear safety and with global warming becoming ever more apparent, nuclear power is regaining a place in global debates as a climate-friendly energy option. That is due to its vital attributes: zero emissions during operation, 24/7 availability, a small land footprint and the versatility to decarbonize ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors in industry and transportation.
But even as technology-neutral organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) recognize nuclear power’s ability to address major global challenges, the extent to which this clean, reliable and sustainable source of energy will achieve its full potential remains uncertain.
The Fukushima Daiichi accident and public acceptance in some countries continue to cast a shadow over nuclear power’s prospects. Furthermore, in some major markets, nuclear power lacks a favourable policy and financing framework that recognize its contributions to climate change mitigation and sustainable development.
Without such a framework, nuclear power will struggle to deliver on its full potential, even as the world remains as dependent on fossil fuels as it was three decades ago.
Impact on electricity generation
The biggest immediate blow to nuclear electricity generation came in Japan. With public confidence in nuclear power at record low levels following the accident, authorities suspended operations at 46 of the country’s 50 operational power reactors.
Nuclear energy, a strategic priority since the 1960s, supplying almost a third of Japan’s electricity, was suddenly shelved. In 2019, nuclear power provided only 7.5% of Japan’s electricity. Just nine nuclear power reactors have resumed operation.
Meanwhile, public and government opinion turned against nuclear power in some other countries as well.
Germany, less than three months after the accident, decided to phase out nuclear power entirely by 2022. All but six of the country’s 17 power reactors have since been permanently shut down.
Nuclear power produced about 12% of the country’s electricity in 2019 compared with around 25% before the accident at Fukushima Daiichi, while coal-fired plants remained the largest source of electricity, according to the IEA.
Elsewhere, Belgium confirmed plans to exit nuclear power by 2025.
In Italy, a government-backed plan to bring back nuclear power, shuttered since 1990, fizzled.
And countries such as Spain and Switzerland decided not to build new nuclear plants.
Between 2011 and 2020, some 48 GWe of nuclear capacity was lost globally as a total of 65 reactors were either shut down or did not have their operational lifetimes extended.
The immediate effect was a decline in global nuclear electricity generation through 2012. At the same time, efforts to deploy other low carbon sources, such as variable wind and solar, intensified as countries looked for new ways to address the climate crisis.
Still, nuclear energy remained the world’s second largest source of low carbon electricity after hydro, providing at the time about 40% of all low carbon power.
Rebuilding confidence
The road back for nuclear power was built on actions taken at the national and international levels to share factual information on the real impact of the Fukushima Daiichi accident and further strengthen nuclear safety, combined with ongoing innovations in reactor design and performance and the long-term operation (LTO) of existing plants.
While newbuild projects in some liberalized markets faced cost and schedule overruns, several countries have made significant progress on the deployment of large scale advanced reactors, including in Belarus, China, the Republic of Korea, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Russia’s deployment in 2016 of the BN-800 fast reactor, a technology that minimizes waste, underscored the potential for nuclear power’s long-term sustainability.
Meanwhile, efforts accelerated in the development of small modular reactors (SMRs), including the deployment of the first SMRs. Today, SMRs are among the most promising emerging nuclear energy technologies. In comparison to existing reactors, proposed SMR designs generally are simpler and rely more extensively on inherent as well as passive safety features.
They are likely to require lower up-front costs and offer greater flexibility for smaller grid, and integration with renewables and non-electric applications such as hydrogen production and water desalination. Innovative designs will also generate less waste or even run on recycled spent fuel.
Five years after the Fukushima Daiichi accident, as the Paris Agreement entered into force, an increasing number of countries were looking to nuclear power as a means not only to address climate change, but to improve energy security, reduce the impact of volatile fuel prices and make their economies more competitive.
Around 30 countries are working with the IAEA to explore the introduction of nuclear power for the first time.
Bangladesh and Turkey are building their first reactors while Belarus and the UAE started generating nuclear electricity last year, demonstrating the important role that newcomer countries will play in the future of nuclear power.
Nuclear energy’s share of global electricity production also ticked up slightly in 2019, to 10.4%, while generating almost one third of the world’s low carbon power. And in 2020, during the pandemic lockdowns, nuclear power played an important part in providing secure, flexible and stable generation in markets characterized by significant drops in electricity demand and large shares of variable generation
Over the last decade, the centre of nuclear power expansion has shifted to Asia, which accounts for more than two thirds of all reactors under construction. In total, 59 GWe in capacity has been added between 2011 and 2020, including 37 GWe in China alone.
Momentum has also begun to build behind the idea that nuclear power has a key role to play in climate change mitigation as well as sustainable development. When the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were unveiled in 2015, it was clear that nuclear power could contribute to many of them, including economic development, energy access and climate change.
In its 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5° C, the IPCC’s model pathways showed that nuclear power will need to make a major contribution to keeping the average global temperature increase (relative to pre-industrial times) under this key threshold. In 2019, an IEA report explained how the transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 will be more difficult and expensive without nuclear energy.
The road ahead
Nuclear energy can help slash emissions beyond the electricity sector as well as address electricity consumption growth, air quality concerns, energy supply security and the price volatility of other fuels. Yet its prospects in some countries remain clouded by policy uncertainty, which adds to the cost of financing this capital-intensive technology.
In its latest annual projections published in September 2020, the IAEA said nuclear generation capacity could almost double by 2050 or decline to slightly below current levels.
According to the report, immediate and concerted action is required to reach the high case scenario. Commitments made under the Paris Agreement and other initiatives could support nuclear power development, but that would require the establishment of energy policies and market designs to facilitate investments in dispatchable, low carbon technologies.
One immediate challenge is the age of the reactor fleet. More than two thirds of operational reactors are over 30 years old and will either be retired in the coming decades or have their lifetimes extended. The anticipated shutdowns of a combined 13 reactors in Germany and Belgium by 2022 and 2025 respectively represent some 14 GWe of lost capacity. The fate of existing reactors in Europe, Japan and the US also remains unclear.
The challenge ahead is to build a safe bridge between ageing reactors and the deployment of advanced technologies. Existing rectors must maintain safety and reliability while staying economically competitive. Advanced reactors under development must be backed up by a proof of concept to successfully clear regulatory hurdles.
Beyond electricity
Global electricity needs, meanwhile, are poised to rise in the decades to come and in key energy scenarios that achieve stringent mitigation targets, a significant role for nuclear power is envisaged. That’s because decarbonizing electricity production through greater use of nuclear power, hydro, wind and solar is only the first step. Clean energy is also needed by sectors such as industry, transport and buildings if the world is to achieve net zero by 2050.
Nuclear power can be used to produce low carbon hydrogen at a competitive cost. Low carbon hydrogen is a key future option for the transport sector, where emissions have tripled since 1970.
While nuclear power’s role on climate change and sustainable development has become better known since the Fukushima Daiichi accident, public acceptance and policy uncertainty still constitute hurdles to the nuclear renaissance once envisaged—but it’s role for future is undeniable.
Recent Posts
The United Nations has shaped so much of global co-operation and regulation that we wouldn’t recognise our world today without the UN’s pervasive role in it. So many small details of our lives – such as postage and copyright laws – are subject to international co-operation nurtured by the UN.
In its 75th year, however, the UN is in a difficult moment as the world faces climate crisis, a global pandemic, great power competition, trade wars, economic depression and a wider breakdown in international co-operation.
Still, the UN has faced tough times before – over many decades during the Cold War, the Security Council was crippled by deep tensions between the US and the Soviet Union. The UN is not as sidelined or divided today as it was then. However, as the relationship between China and the US sours, the achievements of global co-operation are being eroded.
The way in which people speak about the UN often implies a level of coherence and bureaucratic independence that the UN rarely possesses. A failure of the UN is normally better understood as a failure of international co-operation.
We see this recently in the UN’s inability to deal with crises from the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar, to civil conflict in Syria, and the failure of the Security Council to adopt a COVID-19 resolution calling for ceasefires in conflict zones and a co-operative international response to the pandemic.
The UN administration is not primarily to blame for these failures; rather, the problem is the great powers – in the case of COVID-19, China and the US – refusing to co-operate.
Where states fail to agree, the UN is powerless to act.
Marking the 75th anniversary of the official formation of the UN, when 50 founding nations signed the UN Charter on June 26, 1945, we look at some of its key triumphs and resounding failures.
Five successes
1. Peacekeeping
The United Nations was created with the goal of being a collective security organisation. The UN Charter establishes that the use of force is only lawful either in self-defence or if authorised by the UN Security Council. The Security Council’s five permanent members, being China, US, UK, Russia and France, can veto any such resolution.
The UN’s consistent role in seeking to manage conflict is one of its greatest successes.
A key component of this role is peacekeeping. The UN under its second secretary-general, the Swedish statesman Dag Hammarskjöld – who was posthumously awarded the Nobel Peace prize after he died in a suspicious plane crash – created the concept of peacekeeping. Hammarskjöld was responding to the 1956 Suez Crisis, in which the US opposed the invasion of Egypt by its allies Israel, France and the UK.
UN peacekeeping missions involve the use of impartial and armed UN forces, drawn from member states, to stabilise fragile situations. “The essence of peacekeeping is the use of soldiers as a catalyst for peace rather than as the instruments of war,” said then UN Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, when the forces won the 1988 Nobel Peace Prize following missions in conflict zones in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Central America and Europe.
However, peacekeeping also counts among the UN’s major failures.
2. Law of the Sea
Negotiated between 1973 and 1982, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) set up the current international law of the seas. It defines states’ rights and creates concepts such as exclusive economic zones, as well as procedures for the settling of disputes, new arrangements for governing deep sea bed mining, and importantly, new provisions for the protection of marine resources and ocean conservation.
Mostly, countries have abided by the convention. There are various disputes that China has over the East and South China Seas which present a conflict between power and law, in that although UNCLOS creates mechanisms for resolving disputes, a powerful state isn’t necessarily going to submit to those mechanisms.
Secondly, on the conservation front, although UNCLOS is a huge step forward, it has failed to adequately protect oceans that are outside any state’s control. Ocean ecosystems have been dramatically transformed through overfishing. This is an ecological catastrophe that UNCLOS has slowed, but failed to address comprehensively.
3. Decolonisation
The idea of racial equality and of a people’s right to self-determination was discussed in the wake of World War I and rejected. After World War II, however, those principles were endorsed within the UN system, and the Trusteeship Council, which monitored the process of decolonisation, was one of the initial bodies of the UN.
Although many national independence movements only won liberation through bloody conflicts, the UN has overseen a process of decolonisation that has transformed international politics. In 1945, around one third of the world’s population lived under colonial rule. Today, there are less than 2 million people living in colonies.
When it comes to the world’s First Nations, however, the UN generally has done little to address their concerns, aside from the non-binding UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples of 2007.
4. Human rights
The Human Rights Declaration of 1948 for the first time set out fundamental human rights to be universally protected, recognising that the “inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world”.
Since 1948, 10 human rights treaties have been adopted – including conventions on the rights of children and migrant workers, and against torture and discrimination based on gender and race – each monitored by its own committee of independent experts.
The language of human rights has created a new framework for thinking about the relationship between the individual, the state and the international system. Although some people would prefer that political movements focus on ‘liberation’ rather than ‘rights’, the idea of human rights has made the individual person a focus of national and international attention.
5. Free trade
Depending on your politics, you might view the World Trade Organisation as a huge success, or a huge failure.
The WTO creates a near-binding system of international trade law with a clear and efficient dispute resolution process.
The majority Australian consensus is that the WTO is a success because it has been good for Australian famers especially, through its winding back of subsidies and tariffs.
However, the WTO enabled an era of globalisation which is now politically controversial.
Recently, the US has sought to disrupt the system. In addition to the trade war with China, the Trump Administration has also refused to appoint tribunal members to the WTO’s Appellate Body, so it has crippled the dispute resolution process. Of course, the Trump Administration is not the first to take issue with China’s trade strategies, which include subsidises for ‘State Owned Enterprises’ and demands that foreign firms transfer intellectual property in exchange for market access.
The existence of the UN has created a forum where nations can discuss new problems, and climate change is one of them. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to assess climate science and provide policymakers with assessments and options. In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change created a permanent forum for negotiations.
However, despite an international scientific body in the IPCC, and 165 signatory nations to the climate treaty, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase.
Under the Paris Agreement, even if every country meets its greenhouse gas emission targets we are still on track for ‘dangerous warming’. Yet, no major country is even on track to meet its targets; while emissions will probably decline this year as a result of COVID-19, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will still increase.
This illustrates a core conundrum of the UN in that it opens the possibility of global cooperation, but is unable to constrain states from pursuing their narrowly conceived self-interests. Deep co-operation remains challenging.
Five failures of the UN
1. Peacekeeping
During the Bosnian War, Dutch peacekeeping forces stationed in the town of Srebrenica, declared a ‘safe area’ by the UN in 1993, failed in 1995 to stop the massacre of more than 8000 Muslim men and boys by Bosnian Serb forces. This is one of the most widely discussed examples of the failures of international peacekeeping operations.
On the massacre’s 10th anniversary, then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan wrote that the UN had “made serious errors of judgement, rooted in a philosophy of impartiality”, contributing to a mass murder that would “haunt our history forever”.
If you look at some of the other infamous failures of peacekeeping missions – in places such as Rwanda, Somalia and Angola – it is the limited powers given to peacekeeping operations that have resulted in those failures.
2. The invasion of Iraq
The invasion of Iraq by the US in 2003, which was unlawful and without Security Council authorisation, reflects the fact that the UN is has very limited capacity to constrain the actions of great powers.
The Security Council designers created the veto power so that any of the five permanent members could reject a Council resolution, so in that way it is programmed to fail when a great power really wants to do something that the international community generally condemns.
In the case of the Iraq invasion, the US didn’t veto a resolution, but rather sought authorisation that it did not get. The UN, if you go by the idea of collective security, should have responded by defending Iraq against this unlawful use of force.
The invasion proved a humanitarian disaster with the loss of more than 400,000 lives, and many believe that it led to the emergence of the terrorist Islamic State.
3. Refugee crises
The UN brokered the 1951 Refugee Convention to address the plight of people displaced in Europe due to World War II; years later, the 1967 Protocol removed time and geographical restrictions so that the Convention can now apply universally (although many countries in Asia have refused to sign it, owing in part to its Eurocentric origins).
Despite these treaties, and the work of the UN High Commission for Refugees, there is somewhere between 30 and 40 million refugees, many of them, such as many Palestinians, living for decades outside their homelands. This is in addition to more than 40 million people displaced within their own countries.
While for a long time refugee numbers were reducing, in recent years, particularly driven by the Syrian conflict, there have been increases in the number of people being displaced.
During the COVID-19 crisis, boatloads of Rohingya refugees were turned away by port after port. This tragedy has echoes of pre-World War II when ships of Jewish refugees fleeing Nazi Germany were refused entry by multiple countries.
And as a catastrophe of a different kind looms, there is no international framework in place for responding to people who will be displaced by rising seas and other effects of climate change.
4. Conflicts without end
Across the world, there is a shopping list of unresolved civil conflicts and disputed territories.
Palestine and Kashmir are two of the longest-running failures of the UN to resolve disputed lands. More recent, ongoing conflicts include the civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
The common denominator of unresolved conflicts is either division among the great powers, or a lack of international interest due to the geopolitical stakes not being sufficiently high. For instance, the inaction during the Rwandan civil war in the 1990s was not due to a division among great powers, but rather a lack of political will to engage.
In Syria, by contrast, Russia and the US have opposing interests and back opposing sides: Russia backs the government of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, whereas the US does not.
5. Acting like it’s 1945
The UN is increasingly out of step with the reality of geopolitics today.
The permanent members of the Security Council reflect the division of power internationally at the end of World War II. The continuing exclusion of Germany, Japan, and rising powers such as India and Indonesia, reflects the failure to reflect the changing balance of power.
Also, bodies such as the IMF and the World Bank, which are part of the UN system, continue to be dominated by the West. In response, China has created potential rival institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Western domination of UN institutions undermines their credibility. However, a more fundamental problem is that institutions designed in 1945 are a poor fit with the systemic global challenges – of which climate change is foremost – that we face today.