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Let’s hope US policymakers have woken up to the fact that the country is in a period of sclerosis, where its economic institutions seem to be inefficient along a variety of fronts. When things aren’t working, one good idea is to look around and see which countries are doing better.

Right now, Japan is one such country. But in many ways, Germany looks like the most successful economy in the developed world.

This wasn’t always the case. It was a German economist who coined the term “Eurosclerosis” to describe the slow growth that plagued the country from the 1980s through the 1990s. In the late 2000s, even as the US economy boomed, Germany’s unemployment rate exceeded 10%.

But almost a decade after the global financial crisis, the country has found its legs. Unemployment is down. Labour force participation has risen steadily. Wages have gone up as well, outpacing the US since the 1990s and looking healthy in recent years.

This stellar performance comes even as Germany faces many of the same challenges as other rich countries.

Its fertility rate is low—just 1.38 children per woman, even lower than Japan. And its population is slowly shrinking. That means that a smaller and smaller base of German workers has to support a growing number of retirees.

Germany also hasn’t escaped the global productivity slowdown. Like other rich countries, it’s struggling to produce more from the same amount of resources.

And Germany has also been dealing with the challenge of automation, possibly even more than the US. Only Japan has substantially more industrial robots than Germany.

If, as some now claim, robots are a big threat to jobs and wages, German workers should be suffering; instead, their wages have been growing at a steady clip, even as employment has risen.

What is Germany doing right?

The country has a very large state sector, generous welfare spending and a trade unionization rate almost twice that of the US. Though the country did undertake a few free-market reforms in the early 2000s, there has been no major wave of deregulatory mania.

Nor did Germany escape the 2008 financial crisis or the Great Recession, both of which hit it hard. In fact, political and financial instability in the European Union probably was a drag on the country.

A new article by economists Christian Dustmann, Bernd Fitzenberger, Uta Schönberg and Alexandra Spitz-Oener proposes a theory for the German revival. Essentially, they say, it’s all about exports and unions.

The authors note that Germany’s exports have increased steadily. Though the country accounts for less than 5% of global output, it has about 9% of world exports. Sales to other countries account for about half of Germany’s gross domestic product—more than twice as much as for China.

Why is Germany such an export powerhouse?

Dustmann, et al. attribute it to the country’s wage competitiveness. In Germany, wages are set by collective bargaining at the industry and regional level, rather than at the company level as in the US.

According to the authors, German unions’ willingness to hold down wages led to lower production costs in Germany, allowing the country to export more.

And although it may seem counter-intuitive at first glance, limiting wage gains eventually led to faster wage growth.

Think about it. Companies deciding where to produce things have to base their decisions not just on today’s wage level, but on their expectations of future wage changes.

German unions’ willingness to contain or forgo raises in bad times could act as an insurance policy for companies in good times, making them feel safer about building expensive factories and making risky long-term investments in the country.

But there are also other, more troubling explanations for Germany’s performance.

The country’s exports have not been matched by imports—Germany runs a very large trade surplus.

Under normal conditions, economists believe that if a country runs a trade surplus, its exchange rate should rise to cancel out some of the imbalance.

But Germany is part of the euro- zone, most of which is in an economic slump. That slump holds down the euro’s exchange rate against that of many other countries, making German exports cheap.

Also, the unified currency doesn’t allow the exchange rates of slower-growing countries such as Greece or Spain to fall against Germany, meaning that Germany gets a boost to exports within Europe.

Some of Germany’s export competitiveness, then, might be coming at the expense of other countries. And some might depend on other European nations being in a slump. Those advantages would be either unhealthy or temporary.

But if Germany’s success really is due to its unique method of collective bargaining, other countries—especially those with large persistent manufacturing trade deficits, such as the US and India—should think about ways to emulate the German system’s advantages.


 

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    Rising fuel prices in India have led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control.

    The rise in fuel prices is mainly due to the global price of crude oil (raw material for making petrol and diesel) going up. Further, a stronger dollar has added to the cost of crude oil.

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    In the report, the Philippines has a comparable petrol price but has a per capita income higher than India by over 50 per cent.

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    India is the world’s third-biggest oil consuming and importing nation. It imports 85 per cent of its oil needs and so prices retail fuel at import parity rates.

    With the global surge in energy prices, the cost of producing petrol, diesel and other petroleum products also went up for oil companies in India.

    They raised petrol and diesel prices by Rs 10 a litre in just over a fortnight beginning March 22 but hit a pause button soon after as the move faced criticism and the opposition parties asked the government to cut taxes instead.

    India imports most of its oil from a group of countries called the ‘OPEC +’ (i.e, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Russia, etc), which produces 40% of the world’s crude oil.

    As they have the power to dictate fuel supply and prices, their decision of limiting the global supply reduces supply in India, thus raising prices

    The government charges about 167% tax (excise) on petrol and 129% on diesel as compared to US (20%), UK (62%), Italy and Germany (65%).

    The abominable excise duty is 2/3rd of the cost, and the base price, dealer commission and freight form the rest.

    Here is an approximate break-up (in Rs):

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    39

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    0.34

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    39.34

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    40.17

    e) Dealer Commission

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    Looked closely, much of the cost of petrol and diesel is due to higher tax rate by govt, specifically excise duty.

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    India, being a developing country, it does require gigantic amount of funding for its infrastructure projects as well as welfare schemes.

    However, we as a society is yet to be tax-compliant. Many people evade the direct tax and that’s the reason why govt’s hands are tied. Govt. needs the money to fund various programs and at the same time it is not generating enough revenue from direct taxes.

    That’s the reason why, govt is bumping up its revenue through higher indirect taxes such as GST or excise duty as in the case of petrol and diesel.

    Direct taxes are progressive as it taxes according to an individuals’ income however indirect tax such as excise duty or GST are regressive in the sense that the poorest of the poor and richest of the rich have to pay the same amount.

    Does not matter, if you are an auto-driver or owner of a Mercedes, end of the day both pay the same price for petrol/diesel-that’s why it is regressive in nature.

    But unlike direct tax where tax evasion is rampant, indirect tax can not be evaded due to their very nature and as long as huge no of Indians keep evading direct taxes, indirect tax such as excise duty will be difficult for the govt to reduce, because it may reduce the revenue and hamper may programs of the govt.

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    In the absence of cost-effective, sustainable, disruptive water management solutions, about 70% of sewage is discharged untreated into India’s water bodies.

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    India aims to supply 55 litres of water per person per day by 2024 under its Jal Jeevan Mission to install functional household tap connections.

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