Energy is a master resource which has the ability to catapult or cripple a growing economy. The rising threat of climate change has transitioned from climate-science conferences to billions being spent on disaster relief expenses. Global markets are increasingly demanding carbon-free products. Realizing the impending threat to their economies, several countries have announced net-zero targets. The top two energy consumers and emitters, the US and China, recently released a joint statement on climate change.
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Electricity dominates the public discourse on the energy economy. However, it accounts for only 18% of India’s total energy demand. The rest 82% comprises other energy sources such as coal, oil and gas, and biomass.
Unfortunately, our energy sector is heavily import-dependent (85% for crude oil, 53% for gas and 24% for coal). The volatility in the prices of these fuels has a huge impact on the import bill, to the tune of $160 billion. These numbers will double over the next decade as demand grows.
India will overtake the European Union as the world’s third-largest energy consumer by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its recent forecast, India will account for the biggest share of energy demand growth over the next two decades.
This creates challenges but also new avenues of growth. India has the potential to completely re-imagine its energy economy in consonance with demand for clean and sustainable products. This can be achieved by leveraging the results of decades of innovation in the clean energy sector. In the process, India can show the way to developed countries that sustainability and rapid growth can go hand-in-hand.
Green hydrogen (H2) is made by splitting water (H20) via renewable power. Over time, green hydrogen, as an energy carrier, can replace some of our energy imports. This is feasible, given India’s record-low renewable power prices ( ₹1.99/$2.7 cents per kWh).
The Global Hydrogen Council has in a recent study classified India as a net exporter of green hydrogen from 2030, thanks to cheap renewable tariffs. Hydrogen is also a chemical feedstock with an existing global market of about 70 million tonnes. India already consumes about 6 Mt of hydrogen (8.5% of the global demand) annually that is made by reforming 18 Mt of import-dependent natural gas.
More than 25 nations have set up roadmaps for green hydrogen, including mandates and financial incentives to accelerate the transition to it. Wind and solar energy can provide the electricity to power homes and electric cars, but green hydrogen could be an ideal power source for energy-intensive industries like refining, steel, cement, heavy mobility and industrial heating. India is the world’s third-largest emitter, with 3.6 gigatonnes of Co2 equivalent across sectors, and green hydrogen will have to play a role in our development transition.
Globally, governments are pushing to transform the existing hydrogen industry from a dirty/grey hydrogen ecosystem to a clean energy-based green hydrogen ecosystem. Some countries with rich gas and petroleum reserves are also pushing for a blue-hydrogen economy, as it opens up a new market for them. On the other hand, India, with limited local hydrocarbon resources and huge renewable potential, can become a major producer of green hydrogen on account of its low solar prices.
Green hydrogen is critical to meet India’s target of 450 gigawatt of renewable energy by 2030. That target is extremely ambitious. Due to surplus generation of renewables in peak-generation hours, with further addition of renewables to its power grid, India will face a ‘duck curve’, as experienced by California.
To utilize cheap solar power, currently at ₹2.0/kWh, we need to find other uses for solar power during its generation hours. Through the scaling up of green hydrogen from renewables, we will require a significant amount of renewable energy capacity addition to help India march towards its 450 GW target. Electricity typically accounts for 70% of the production cost of green hydrogen. Hence, surplus electricity from India’s renewable plants can augment green hydrogen economics. This will also protect the grid.
West Asian countries, Chile and Australia are aiming to become major players in green hydrogen. An energy consortium in Australia has just announced plans to build a project called the Asian Renewable Energy Hub in Pilbara that would use 1,743 large wind turbines and 30 square miles of solar panels to run a 26-gigawatt electrolysis factory that would create green hydrogen to be sent to Singapore. India can learn from global trends and leverage its vibrant clean energy industry to shape its green hydrogen market.
Green hydrogen is a sunrise industry and will enable Indian entrepreneurs to capture new avenues of growth. Locally-available green hydrogen can attract high-value green industries, like green steel and green chemicals, to shift production to India.
Localization of electrolyzer production and development of Green-H2 projects could create a new green technology market worth about $18-20 billion in India and generate domestic jobs. In addition, there is a massive opportunity to create regional hubs to export high-value green products and engineering, procurement and construction services, given the nascent stage this industry is in.
So what should India do to build a global-scale green hydrogen industry?
First, it should announce ambitious targets for green hydrogen and electrolyzer capacity by 2030 on similar lines as renewables.
Second, mandate blending a certain percentage of green hydrogen with grey hydrogen for existing applications like oil refining and fertilizers, depending on the viability gap, and mandate new greenfield capacities of hydrogen applications like oil refining and fertilizers to use only green hydrogen from a future cut-off date (to avoid long term lock-ins).
Third, India should aim to build a vibrant hydrogen products export industry, such as green steel, using a phased manufacturing programme.
Fourth, India should form a regional alliance with South Korea, Japan and Singapore to export green hydrogen from coastal India to help them reach their net-zero ambitions.
Fifth, capital cost contributes around 30% of green hydrogen costs, and dollar-linked contracts for procurement of hydrogen should be explored in relevant demand sectors, as is done for oil and gas.
Last, India should plan to roll out a production-linked incentive scheme for electrolyzer manufacturing to address the huge global supply bottleneck.
Green hydrogen is the future of energy. It has the potential to radically reduce imports and catalyse India’s transition to climate-action leadership.
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The United Nations has shaped so much of global co-operation and regulation that we wouldn’t recognise our world today without the UN’s pervasive role in it. So many small details of our lives – such as postage and copyright laws – are subject to international co-operation nurtured by the UN.
In its 75th year, however, the UN is in a difficult moment as the world faces climate crisis, a global pandemic, great power competition, trade wars, economic depression and a wider breakdown in international co-operation.
Still, the UN has faced tough times before – over many decades during the Cold War, the Security Council was crippled by deep tensions between the US and the Soviet Union. The UN is not as sidelined or divided today as it was then. However, as the relationship between China and the US sours, the achievements of global co-operation are being eroded.
The way in which people speak about the UN often implies a level of coherence and bureaucratic independence that the UN rarely possesses. A failure of the UN is normally better understood as a failure of international co-operation.
We see this recently in the UN’s inability to deal with crises from the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar, to civil conflict in Syria, and the failure of the Security Council to adopt a COVID-19 resolution calling for ceasefires in conflict zones and a co-operative international response to the pandemic.
The UN administration is not primarily to blame for these failures; rather, the problem is the great powers – in the case of COVID-19, China and the US – refusing to co-operate.
Where states fail to agree, the UN is powerless to act.
Marking the 75th anniversary of the official formation of the UN, when 50 founding nations signed the UN Charter on June 26, 1945, we look at some of its key triumphs and resounding failures.
Five successes
1. Peacekeeping
The United Nations was created with the goal of being a collective security organisation. The UN Charter establishes that the use of force is only lawful either in self-defence or if authorised by the UN Security Council. The Security Council’s five permanent members, being China, US, UK, Russia and France, can veto any such resolution.
The UN’s consistent role in seeking to manage conflict is one of its greatest successes.
A key component of this role is peacekeeping. The UN under its second secretary-general, the Swedish statesman Dag Hammarskjöld – who was posthumously awarded the Nobel Peace prize after he died in a suspicious plane crash – created the concept of peacekeeping. Hammarskjöld was responding to the 1956 Suez Crisis, in which the US opposed the invasion of Egypt by its allies Israel, France and the UK.
UN peacekeeping missions involve the use of impartial and armed UN forces, drawn from member states, to stabilise fragile situations. “The essence of peacekeeping is the use of soldiers as a catalyst for peace rather than as the instruments of war,” said then UN Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, when the forces won the 1988 Nobel Peace Prize following missions in conflict zones in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Central America and Europe.
However, peacekeeping also counts among the UN’s major failures.
2. Law of the Sea
Negotiated between 1973 and 1982, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) set up the current international law of the seas. It defines states’ rights and creates concepts such as exclusive economic zones, as well as procedures for the settling of disputes, new arrangements for governing deep sea bed mining, and importantly, new provisions for the protection of marine resources and ocean conservation.
Mostly, countries have abided by the convention. There are various disputes that China has over the East and South China Seas which present a conflict between power and law, in that although UNCLOS creates mechanisms for resolving disputes, a powerful state isn’t necessarily going to submit to those mechanisms.
Secondly, on the conservation front, although UNCLOS is a huge step forward, it has failed to adequately protect oceans that are outside any state’s control. Ocean ecosystems have been dramatically transformed through overfishing. This is an ecological catastrophe that UNCLOS has slowed, but failed to address comprehensively.
3. Decolonisation
The idea of racial equality and of a people’s right to self-determination was discussed in the wake of World War I and rejected. After World War II, however, those principles were endorsed within the UN system, and the Trusteeship Council, which monitored the process of decolonisation, was one of the initial bodies of the UN.
Although many national independence movements only won liberation through bloody conflicts, the UN has overseen a process of decolonisation that has transformed international politics. In 1945, around one third of the world’s population lived under colonial rule. Today, there are less than 2 million people living in colonies.
When it comes to the world’s First Nations, however, the UN generally has done little to address their concerns, aside from the non-binding UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples of 2007.
4. Human rights
The Human Rights Declaration of 1948 for the first time set out fundamental human rights to be universally protected, recognising that the “inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world”.
Since 1948, 10 human rights treaties have been adopted – including conventions on the rights of children and migrant workers, and against torture and discrimination based on gender and race – each monitored by its own committee of independent experts.
The language of human rights has created a new framework for thinking about the relationship between the individual, the state and the international system. Although some people would prefer that political movements focus on ‘liberation’ rather than ‘rights’, the idea of human rights has made the individual person a focus of national and international attention.
5. Free trade
Depending on your politics, you might view the World Trade Organisation as a huge success, or a huge failure.
The WTO creates a near-binding system of international trade law with a clear and efficient dispute resolution process.
The majority Australian consensus is that the WTO is a success because it has been good for Australian famers especially, through its winding back of subsidies and tariffs.
However, the WTO enabled an era of globalisation which is now politically controversial.
Recently, the US has sought to disrupt the system. In addition to the trade war with China, the Trump Administration has also refused to appoint tribunal members to the WTO’s Appellate Body, so it has crippled the dispute resolution process. Of course, the Trump Administration is not the first to take issue with China’s trade strategies, which include subsidises for ‘State Owned Enterprises’ and demands that foreign firms transfer intellectual property in exchange for market access.
The existence of the UN has created a forum where nations can discuss new problems, and climate change is one of them. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to assess climate science and provide policymakers with assessments and options. In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change created a permanent forum for negotiations.
However, despite an international scientific body in the IPCC, and 165 signatory nations to the climate treaty, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase.
Under the Paris Agreement, even if every country meets its greenhouse gas emission targets we are still on track for ‘dangerous warming’. Yet, no major country is even on track to meet its targets; while emissions will probably decline this year as a result of COVID-19, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will still increase.
This illustrates a core conundrum of the UN in that it opens the possibility of global cooperation, but is unable to constrain states from pursuing their narrowly conceived self-interests. Deep co-operation remains challenging.
Five failures of the UN
1. Peacekeeping
During the Bosnian War, Dutch peacekeeping forces stationed in the town of Srebrenica, declared a ‘safe area’ by the UN in 1993, failed in 1995 to stop the massacre of more than 8000 Muslim men and boys by Bosnian Serb forces. This is one of the most widely discussed examples of the failures of international peacekeeping operations.
On the massacre’s 10th anniversary, then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan wrote that the UN had “made serious errors of judgement, rooted in a philosophy of impartiality”, contributing to a mass murder that would “haunt our history forever”.
If you look at some of the other infamous failures of peacekeeping missions – in places such as Rwanda, Somalia and Angola – it is the limited powers given to peacekeeping operations that have resulted in those failures.
2. The invasion of Iraq
The invasion of Iraq by the US in 2003, which was unlawful and without Security Council authorisation, reflects the fact that the UN is has very limited capacity to constrain the actions of great powers.
The Security Council designers created the veto power so that any of the five permanent members could reject a Council resolution, so in that way it is programmed to fail when a great power really wants to do something that the international community generally condemns.
In the case of the Iraq invasion, the US didn’t veto a resolution, but rather sought authorisation that it did not get. The UN, if you go by the idea of collective security, should have responded by defending Iraq against this unlawful use of force.
The invasion proved a humanitarian disaster with the loss of more than 400,000 lives, and many believe that it led to the emergence of the terrorist Islamic State.
3. Refugee crises
The UN brokered the 1951 Refugee Convention to address the plight of people displaced in Europe due to World War II; years later, the 1967 Protocol removed time and geographical restrictions so that the Convention can now apply universally (although many countries in Asia have refused to sign it, owing in part to its Eurocentric origins).
Despite these treaties, and the work of the UN High Commission for Refugees, there is somewhere between 30 and 40 million refugees, many of them, such as many Palestinians, living for decades outside their homelands. This is in addition to more than 40 million people displaced within their own countries.
While for a long time refugee numbers were reducing, in recent years, particularly driven by the Syrian conflict, there have been increases in the number of people being displaced.
During the COVID-19 crisis, boatloads of Rohingya refugees were turned away by port after port. This tragedy has echoes of pre-World War II when ships of Jewish refugees fleeing Nazi Germany were refused entry by multiple countries.
And as a catastrophe of a different kind looms, there is no international framework in place for responding to people who will be displaced by rising seas and other effects of climate change.
4. Conflicts without end
Across the world, there is a shopping list of unresolved civil conflicts and disputed territories.
Palestine and Kashmir are two of the longest-running failures of the UN to resolve disputed lands. More recent, ongoing conflicts include the civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
The common denominator of unresolved conflicts is either division among the great powers, or a lack of international interest due to the geopolitical stakes not being sufficiently high. For instance, the inaction during the Rwandan civil war in the 1990s was not due to a division among great powers, but rather a lack of political will to engage.
In Syria, by contrast, Russia and the US have opposing interests and back opposing sides: Russia backs the government of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, whereas the US does not.
5. Acting like it’s 1945
The UN is increasingly out of step with the reality of geopolitics today.
The permanent members of the Security Council reflect the division of power internationally at the end of World War II. The continuing exclusion of Germany, Japan, and rising powers such as India and Indonesia, reflects the failure to reflect the changing balance of power.
Also, bodies such as the IMF and the World Bank, which are part of the UN system, continue to be dominated by the West. In response, China has created potential rival institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Western domination of UN institutions undermines their credibility. However, a more fundamental problem is that institutions designed in 1945 are a poor fit with the systemic global challenges – of which climate change is foremost – that we face today.