No zero sums in this great game:-
Background :-
India need not press the panic button or employ ill-conceived diplomatic moves in response to Nepal’s so-called flashing of the China card. Nor should it make an unethical compromise with Kathmandu on the legitimate interests of Madhesis and other marginalised groups.
Details :-
Nepal is celebrating the outcome of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli’s China visit as a major landmark in the evolution of its foreign policy. The euphoria has been politically crafted and media hyped. It is driven by two objectives. One is domestic, of consolidating the Oli regime’s support from the ‘nationalist’ constituency that stands for reducing dependence on India and keeping Madhes and Janjatis marginalised in Nepali polity. The other is of sending a strong message to India that Nepal has a viable option in mobilising support from China to counter any pressure generated from the southern neighbour. Both objectives had been triggered by India’s support for the Madhes agitation against a discriminatory constitution adopted in September 2015. India’s support had resulted in restricted supply of essential goods to Nepal for nearly six months, causing unprecedented hardship to Nepal’s people and generating strong anti-India sentiments among the country’s hill communities.
A familiar pattern
There is a set pattern of the Kathmandu regime flashing the China card whenever it runs into difficulties with its own people and India lends support to the Nepali people’s cause. Recall King Mahendra’s use of the China card when he had pitted himself against democratic forces seeking and securing Indian support during the early 1960s. A desperate King Mahendra had then breached the Himalayan barrier by making China build a road between Kathmandu and Kodari. He flouted the India-Nepal Treaty of 1950 by soliciting Chinese support as a security protector of Nepal. His successors, King Birendra and King Gyanendra, made similar moves during 1988-89 and 2005-06, respectively, when faced with popular struggles against their authoritarian governance. Struggling popular democratic forces of Nepal sought and secured Indian support on these occasions.
The underlying thread in all these royal moves was to whip up anti-India nationalism, garner external/Chinese support and erode traditional ties with India to ensure regime security. The use of this well-known royalist strategy by the democratic regime headed by Mr. Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (UML) should not come as a surprise because the UML flourished under the royal patronage and political indoctrination. Mr. Oli concluded 10 important agreements and memoranda of understanding (MoU)s during this visit to China. They cover the fields of transit and trade, connectivity and infrastructure, energy exploration and storage, banking, scholarships and training. Some of these agreements are projected as historic and unprecedented, particularly those related to transit through China and rail and road connectivity between Nepal and China. On close look, these agreements appear to be higher on symbolism than on substantial commitments for delivery. Take, for instance, the agreement on transit through China where China has agreed to provide the Tianjin seaport for transit of Nepali goods imported from third countries.
This, in principle, breaks Nepal’s complete dependence on India for all its imports. The viability of this option may however be debated as Tianjin is located at a distance of 3,000 km from Nepal, as against 1,000 km from the Haldia port in India being currently used by Nepal. Nepal’s infrastructure in its northern region to connect with the proposed Tianjin transit facility is still not in place, and will take effort and investment to be operational. Of course, this facility would come in handy in the event of a complete blockade of transit routes from India for Nepal, but in such a situation, carrying perishable and essential goods like foodstuffs and petroleum products will cost Nepal heavily in time and money.
Similarly, the proposal on connectivity of Nepal with the Tibet rail network will also take time. The proposal was first accepted in 2008, and promises were made to establish rail connectivity by 2013. This did not happen. Under the present MoU on rail connectivity, Chinese commitments are for feasibility studies and technical support only. The Joint Statement issued on Mr. Oli’s visit says that the two sides “will exchange ideas and proposals on constructing cross border railways… as soon as possible”. The Lhasa rail line has been brought up to Xigatse. Only by 2020, as per the current Chinese plans, will this line be brought nearer the Nepal border within Tibet. There is no firm commitment yet on how it will then be extended within Nepal linking Kathmandu with Pokhara and Lumbini as proposed by the Nepali side. In building this link, the track will have to scale mountains as high as 6,000 m, either through tunnels or winding channels, involving heavy costs, time and effort. Commenting on this proposal, Hou Yanqi, the Deputy Head of Asia Division in China’s Foreign Ministry, said that while China will work on rail link from Xigatse to Gyirong within Tibet, its “extension into Nepal is a long-term plan, at a point far off in future”.
Besides the constraints of costs and terrain, rail connectivity between Tibet and Nepal is also a political issue for the Chinese authorities. They have to decide on the extent to which Tibet can be opened up to the outside world through land connection. The proposed rail could not only facilitate the flight of disaffected Tibetans to Nepal, but also bring in Nepalese and other foreigners into Tibet. Is China ready for such traffic?
‘One Belt, One Road’ priorities
The Chinese side has been both calculating and careful in accommodating the Nepali agenda. It has bound Nepal, as per the Joint Statement, to “synergise” its “development planning, formulate appropriate bilateral cooperation programmes and carry out major projects under the framework of the Belt and Road initiative”. Accordingly, Nepal’s infrastructure and connectivity projects will have to be subjected to Chinese ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) priorities. Nepal will also have to “facilitate” and “encourage” Chinese investment. Most of the Chinese commitments are loans, of which only 25 per cent will be interest free. China’s dwindling growth rate and growing debt/GDP ratio does not allow China to write free cheques any longer. Nepal must also be aware of the unease and discomfort that countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar experienced in their deepening economic engagement with China. China’s economic projects invariably come with strategic underpinnings and heavy debt burden. The Chinese caution in relation to Nepal also comes out of the latter’s intrinsic political instability and bureaucratic lethargy. There are lingering doubts among the mandarins in Beijing whether the Oli government will last long enough to implement the agreements inked, in view of the rising calls for a national government in Nepal. China also does not want to ruffle Indian feathers on Nepal as India, besides other considerations, is a much bigger and promising market for Chinese products and services as compared to Nepal.
In reaction to Nepal’s so-called flashing of the China card, India need not press the panic button or employ knee-jerk and ill-conceived diplomatic moves as it did in response to Nepal’s constitution and the Madhes agitation six months ago. Nor should it make an unethical compromise with Kathmandu on the legitimate interests of Madhesis and other marginalised groups. Resort to pushing for a Hindu state agenda and revival of the monarchy in Nepal, popular with some sections of India’s ruling party, to contain Chinese influence will prove counter-productive. And yet, India has to sit up and take a serious note of the Chinese push into South Asia, which is not simply limited to Nepal but covers all other neighbours as well.
Potential for shared prosperity
South Asia is a vital link in the Chinese OBOR plan. It is a region that borders on China’s vulnerable periphery of Xinjiang and Tibet. Its 1.6 billion people, growing steadily by 4-5 per cent on average, constitute a huge economic opportunity that China or any other country cannot ignore. India has yet to evolve a credible response to this Chinese push towards South Asia. China will readily and deftly exploit India’s flip-flops towards its neighbours in this push. India, therefore, has to deal with its immediate neighbours with prudence and sensitivity and ensure that they are not alienated. There is scope also for exploring the possibility of making calibrated use of the region’s infrastructure development under OBOR. Internal and trans-border connectivity of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh or even Pakistan may in fact facilitate such economic integration to the long-term advantage of India as well. But in doing so, India has to guard its vital strategic space and interests, as well as those of its neighbours, that China may seek to erode under the cover of its regional economic engagement.
Pay consumers to take back e-waste:-
The new rules proposed by the Ministry of Environment and Forests to manage electronic waste must be implemented with firm political will to close the gap between growing volumes of hazardous trash and inadequate recycling infrastructure.
India generates about eight lakh tonnes of e-waste annually, while 151 registered recycling facilities can handle only half of that quantum. There are no systematic studies on India’s waste generation, a problem that is probably much bigger than commonly believed.
Producers and consumers of electronic goods have a responsibility under the E-waste (Management and Handling) Rules 2011 to ensure proper disposal, but progress has been slow for various reasons. Now the E-waste (Management) Rules 2016 provide several options to manufacturers — such as collection of a refundable deposit and paying for the return of goods — to meet the requirements of law. Consumers are naturally keen on recovering economic value from waste, creating a thriving informal recycling sector. These units use crude methods such as open burning to extract copper, lead, aluminium and iron. Studies done at informal recyclers near New Delhi show that concentrated acids are used in an open-air environment to remove copper from printed circuit boards; the corrosive chemicals are then discharged into surrounding lands. Several cities are similarly polluted. This is an unsustainable course, especially at a time when rapid obsolescence of electronic goods is the norm.
In spite of its growing environmental footprint, sound management of electronic waste has received low priority. Urban solid waste management policy has focused on cleaning streets and transferring garbage to landfills, ignoring the legal obligation to segregate and recycle. Hazardous materials, including heavy metals, are dumped in garbage yards, polluting soil and water. The new rules have positive measures in this regard: they classify mercury-laden light bulbs as e-waste, which will keep them out of municipal landfills. Bulk consumers have to file annual returns, another welcome move. An awareness campaign on e-waste will make it easier to implement the rules. Often, consumers do not let go of defunct gadgets. One U.S. study showed that on average a household keeps four small and two large e-waste articles in basements and attics. Several Indian households also stock e-waste items. The success of the new rules will depend on incentivising such consumers to enter the formal recycling channel using the producer-operated buy-back scheme. They will come on board when the repurchase offer is better than that of the unorganised sector and a collection mechanism is available. The Centre and the States have a responsibility to ensure that producers contribute to the e-waste management system, which has been designed with their inputs. The collection targets, that will touch 70 per cent in seven years, are realistic. A healthy environment demands that the targets get more ambitious.
Quadrants of a renal quandary:-
It’s a health puzzle waiting to be solved. For over two decades, pockets of farmlands in four different corners of the country have reported a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The cause of the malady, which is otherwise linked to diabetes and hypertension in individual cases, remains undefined in these four areas where it has been observed in clusters.
Doctors in Canacona taluka of South Goa, Narasinghpur block in Cuttack district of Odisha, villages along the Purna river in the Buldhana-Akola-Amravati belt in Maharashtra and the coconut plantation-rich Uddanam area in Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh have for years been reporting an unusually high number of CKD cases, with surveys pointing at contamination of groundwater as a possible cause.
Making the connections
These surveys could be highlighting a serious concern, but have remained limited in their scope, with only a few dialysis centres or kidney check-up camps in the affected villages. The lone scientific study proposed to connect the dots is stuck for funding.
Doctors in Uddanam, bordering Odisha, had been reporting a high incidence of CKD for the last 15 years, a concern big enough for the State’s health officials to seek a proper survey.
Over a thousand miles from Srikakulam, located on the western coast is Canacona, where the prevalence of CKD since the late 1980s led to a survey by the State government and the National Institute of Occupational Health in 2005-06 that studied the presence of heavy metals in drinking water, fish, soil and blood samples. The study had found clinical similarities between Balkan Endemic Nephropathy — a familial, chronic renal disease — and the CKD cases in Canacona. It noted that the level of Ochratoxin A, a food-contaminating fungi metabolite, was found to be higher among people who suffered from the condition, like it did in the Balkans.
The soil is impervious so water doesn’t percolate, preventing groundwater recharge. And this leads to high salinity.Concentration of total dissolved solids in the water was found to be as high as 9,000 ppm (parts per million) in some parts when the desirable limit is 1,500 ppm. Independent experts, however, question if high salinity causes CKD. The kidney concern in Odisha’s Narasinghpur and Baramba blocks had led the State government to ask the regional medical research centre of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in Bhubaneswar to conduct a survey. The ICMR team mapped the villages and carried out a door-to-door census, and proposed further investigation. Last year, the State Health Department undertook another survey and found 572 cases of CKD in Narasinghpur block. Water contamination, officials noted, was possibly the reason. But then they hit another roadblock.
Awaiting analysis
There is considerable area-specific CKD knowledge that local doctors and health officials have of their regions. Strangely, however, while they quote examples of similar patterns that have emerged internationally — Sri Lanka, the Balkans — most doctors in each of these regions have no idea that a similar condition is being recorded within the country itself.
Whatever has been done (surveys) lacks scientific rigour. The observations may or may not be true. While there is no doubt this is a water issue, the explanation is then not limited to one area.This isn’t just a health issue, but a human rights issue as clean drinking water is a fundamental right: “It is developing disease by neglect.”
New fuel-efficient fishing vessel to set sail:-
Sagar Haritha, an IRS class vessel, designed and developed by the Central Institute of Fisheries Technology, is all set to conquer new seas. The Central Institute of Fisheries Technology (CIFT), the lead partner in developing the fuel-efficient multi-fishing mode vessel, will take her to waters shortly. The vessel blends research as well as occupational fishing activities.
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Steve Ovett, the famous British middle-distance athlete, won the 800-metres gold medal at the Moscow Olympics of 1980. Just a few days later, he was about to win a 5,000-metres race at London’s Crystal Palace. Known for his burst of acceleration on the home stretch, he had supreme confidence in his ability to out-sprint rivals. With the final 100 metres remaining,
[wptelegram-join-channel link=”https://t.me/s/upsctree” text=”Join @upsctree on Telegram”]Ovett waved to the crowd and raised a hand in triumph. But he had celebrated a bit too early. At the finishing line, Ireland’s John Treacy edged past Ovett. For those few moments, Ovett had lost his sense of reality and ignored the possibility of a negative event.
This analogy works well for the India story and our policy failures , including during the ongoing covid pandemic. While we have never been as well prepared or had significant successes in terms of growth stability as Ovett did in his illustrious running career, we tend to celebrate too early. Indeed, we have done so many times before.
It is as if we’re convinced that India is destined for greater heights, come what may, and so we never run through the finish line. Do we and our policymakers suffer from a collective optimism bias, which, as the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman once wrote, “may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases”? The optimism bias arises from mistaken beliefs which form expectations that are better than the reality. It makes us underestimate chances of a negative outcome and ignore warnings repeatedly.
The Indian economy had a dream run for five years from 2003-04 to 2007-08, with an average annual growth rate of around 9%. Many believed that India was on its way to clocking consistent double-digit growth and comparisons with China were rife. It was conveniently overlooked that this output expansion had come mainly came from a few sectors: automobiles, telecom and business services.
Indians were made to believe that we could sprint without high-quality education, healthcare, infrastructure or banking sectors, which form the backbone of any stable economy. The plan was to build them as we went along, but then in the euphoria of short-term success, it got lost.
India’s exports of goods grew from $20 billion in 1990-91 to over $310 billion in 2019-20. Looking at these absolute figures it would seem as if India has arrived on the world stage. However, India’s share of global trade has moved up only marginally. Even now, the country accounts for less than 2% of the world’s goods exports.
More importantly, hidden behind this performance was the role played by one sector that should have never made it to India’s list of exports—refined petroleum. The share of refined petroleum exports in India’s goods exports increased from 1.4% in 1996-97 to over 18% in 2011-12.
An import-intensive sector with low labour intensity, exports of refined petroleum zoomed because of the then policy regime of a retail price ceiling on petroleum products in the domestic market. While we have done well in the export of services, our share is still less than 4% of world exports.
India seemed to emerge from the 2008 global financial crisis relatively unscathed. But, a temporary demand push had played a role in the revival—the incomes of many households, both rural and urban, had shot up. Fiscal stimulus to the rural economy and implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission scales had led to the salaries of around 20% of organized-sector employees jumping up. We celebrated, but once again, neither did we resolve the crisis brewing elsewhere in India’s banking sector, nor did we improve our capacity for healthcare or quality education.
Employment saw little economy-wide growth in our boom years. Manufacturing jobs, if anything, shrank. But we continued to celebrate. Youth flocked to low-productivity service-sector jobs, such as those in hotels and restaurants, security and other services. The dependence on such jobs on one hand and high-skilled services on the other was bound to make Indian society more unequal.
And then, there is agriculture, an elephant in the room. If and when farm-sector reforms get implemented, celebrations would once again be premature. The vast majority of India’s farmers have small plots of land, and though these farms are at least as productive as larger ones, net absolute incomes from small plots can only be meagre.
A further rise in farm productivity and consequent increase in supply, if not matched by a demand rise, especially with access to export markets, would result in downward pressure on market prices for farm produce and a further decline in the net incomes of small farmers.
We should learn from what John Treacy did right. He didn’t give up, and pushed for the finish line like it was his only chance at winning. Treacy had years of long-distance practice. The same goes for our economy. A long grind is required to build up its base before we can win and celebrate. And Ovett did not blame anyone for his loss. We play the blame game. Everyone else, right from China and the US to ‘greedy corporates’, seems to be responsible for our failures.
We have lowered absolute poverty levels and had technology-based successes like Aadhaar and digital access to public services. But there are no short cuts to good quality and adequate healthcare and education services. We must remain optimistic but stay firmly away from the optimism bias.
In the end, it is not about how we start, but how we finish. The disastrous second wave of covid and our inability to manage it is a ghastly reminder of this fact.